Some of the MVC board members seem to think there's something peculiar about MVC conference play. But there will always be more close games and upsets and unexpected blow outs in conference - any conference. With the MVC I have now been a season ticket hoolder in four different conferences since 1969 and it's always the same. I didn't appreciate it when Loyola was an independent, but in conference, the play is more intense, the teams know each other better, heated rivalries develop, and home court advantage isn't as determinative. Every game is a battle. Extra intensity in any conference is analogous to NBA playoff games vs regular season.

The top teams are not predetermined. That's why games are played. Non-con doesn't correlate well with conference performance anywhere. As someone said, RPI is a zero-sum game in conference play. So if the supposed elite teams lose, the conference RPI is no worse off. In fact, after Sunday Loyola gained a lot more in RPI than MOST lost so the conference is better off. If a predetermined elite doesn't make the top 100, it's because they didn't perform, just as Loyola didn't perform in non-con. No one to blame; no one to root against.

Best post of the year!

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MBB Scholarship Chart

I am venturing into uncharted waters for me-statistics and basketball Nerdology- but I thought the quoted claim required a little scrutiny because no evidence was cited in its support, and it didn't seem self-evident to me.

I only dipped my toes into the shallow end of the statistical pool, but here is something that suggests that there may be a closer correlation between non-conference records and conference records than Mr. Scream believes.

This is from the website Teamrankings.com. They have a proprietary metric called "Non Conference Power Rating" which is somewhat akin to the RPI. As the name suggests, this focuses exclusively on the non-conference part of a team's schedule.

For the 2012-2013 season, here is how the Missouri Valley teams ranked in Non-Conference Power Rating:

1. Wichita State (#4 overall)
2. Creighton #14
3. Indiana State #74
4. Illinois State #88
5. Evansville #89
6. Drake #107
7. Northern Iowa #115
8. Bradley #120
9. Southern Illinois #143
10. Missouri State #314

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/

Here were the seedings for the MVC Tournament for the same year:

1. Creighton
2. Wichita State
3. Northern Iowa
4. Evansville
5. Indiana State
6. Illinois State
7. Missouri State
8. Bradley
9. Drake
10. Southern Illinois


Now admittedly I'm just basing this on pure eyeballing, but to me there seems to have been a pretty good correlation between non-con and conference performance in the Missouri Valley last year.

I'm not saying this is proof by any means, but I also don't see any reason why there wouldn't be a correlation between non-con and conference performance.

I'm not sure if I agree with this claim either, especially the part about home court advantage being less of a factor in a heated rivalry game.

According to one college basketball betting site:

.
http://www.oddsshark.com/betting-101/nc ... -rivalries


I don't know if there are any scholarly statistical studies out there that address this issue, but I tend to trust the judgment of the guys who put their money where their mouth is.

Another betting site adds that in rivalry games the partisan crowd also has an effect on how the refs call the game, to the advantage of the home team.

Noncon guarantees nothing, but it is an indicator. Sometimes a young team, or one with a lot of new pieces, will do better in conference play than noncon because of the time it takes to gel and develop as a team. Of course injuries can factor in as well. I know that hurt us last year as two of our starters at the start of the year missed the entire conference slate and only one returned. There was also a stretch in conference play where we lost our best post player for a couple of weeks. Guess when most of our losses took place. But as a whole, you can tell a lot based off of the noncon. Not just record, but SOS as well.

That's why I haven't been completely sold on the Bares this year. Great record, bad SOS. That's also why so many have been critical of you guys. Poor record against a bad SOS. So on the surface, you can see why the perception is what it is. If you dig deeper we can see that Moser still has a fairly young team and he's still trying to figure out the pieces. You never know when that'll start coming together and make a difference.

And again, I don't think anyone is mad at you guys as much as they are irritated that you underperformed and then beat a team who could potentially give us another Top 100 RPI win or two. Has MSU won or not, there were no guarantees they'd stay in the Top 100, but from a WSU perspective, the more Top 100 wins we have the better our chances of getting a better seed come March.

I think that eventually you'll find more fans that are more welcoming of the Hobos, but it'll take time to build the program and earn respect. Trust me, you'll earn it a lot quicker that Evansville. I don't remember when they joined the conference but I don't think anybody respects them yet.

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The Roundhouse

Pretty good data, Swella. I was wrong to say non-con doesn’t correlate well with conference, assuming as I do that last year’s MVC is representative. I hate to lose to the facts.

On the other hand, the size of the discrepancies in non-con rank don’t seem to predict how close the conference standings were with records ranging from 13-5 to 6-14. Missouri State (non-con rank #314) won 7 games, Wichita (#4) lost 6. Drake beat Creighton; SIU beat Wichita, etc.

In any case, the point for the whiners on the MVC board was that the conference doesn’t necessarily benefit when the best non-con teams win all of their conference games. Despite the leveling of conference play last year, there were still 5 top-100 teams in the final RPI – essentially NIU replaced ISU red. But the overall rating of the conference did not essentially change from the non-con ratings you provided (average rank = 115) to the final RPI (average rank = 109), mostly due to MO ST winning 7 conference games.

Scream, I agree with your main point, which, if I can put it into my own words, is that the MVC board posters are a bunch of RPI-obsessed whiners who should shut up and play ball.

Always the wordsmith.

My point is they're using RPI as an excuse to complain, in general. If the RPI rationale doesn't work for them, they'll go after attendance. And if attendance doesn't work for them-- either overall, or calculated as a percentage of capacity-- they'll seamlessly and without batting an eye shift their basis for complaints to location, facilities, history, school enrollment, market media outlets, weather, politics, tarot card readings, what side your hair is parted on, or anything else, to carefully nurse the "I'm so much smarter than you because I can find a juicy downside to this that may either be due to everybody else's general incompetence or your obvious inferiority on a personal level for being a fan of your team" personna.

Great Comments guys !
OK--The one thing that sticks out against us is our attendance--I am banking on a few more wins and good PR ( the ticket deal) to fix that--and it will for sure.

RPI--?? Well, this time we can do nothing about it--We did not earn a good RPI--WE are fixing that I think---From 308 down to 260 something I believe. With a roadie win or three, we will be credible on that score.

I really feel we and others should concentrate on WINNING and all the rest will take care of themselves !

BTW--Another big win this evening will do wonders !!

But meanwhile , the folks are really pounding on the new kid in the field--notice I said field--Think on it .

However we do have Sub and Bear and a few others who make sense.