Saturday, January 9, 2016, 3:00 p.m.
Gentile Arena, Chicago, Ill.

The Bears have arguably played the third toughest schedule in the MVC. Their four D1 wins on the season have come against mostly good programs: Oklahoma State (in Stillwater), IUPUI, Oral Roberts, and Northern Iowa. The Bears have lost to Butler, Minnesota, Valpo, Tulsa, Mississippi State, Oral Roberts (on the road), and Utah State. The only really bad loss they’ve had was at home to S.E. Missouri State (the “other” State’s only win on the season). Despite point guard Dorian Williams’ second game out with a hamstring, the Bears upset Northern Iowa Wednesday night in Springfield, 59-58. Two other returning players missing because of injury are junior center Tyler McCullough and junior guard Austin Ruder.

Paul Lusk’s patched-together team currently has three guards and two forwards as starters. They each play heavy minutes and don’t get much scoring help or minutes from their short bench. Though not impressively tall, this year’s MSU team has an improved frontcourt with wide 6’6” senior forward Camyn Boone and long 6’7” freshman forward Obediah Church. Boone has upped his scoring and rebounding, leading the team with 12.2 points and 6.6 rebounds per game. Boone scored 27 against Oral Roberts and had a double-double of 24 and 10 in MSU’s win over IUPUI. Church, a true freshman from the Springfield in Illinois, has been a revelation for the Bears—he averages 6.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, and nearly 1.7 blocks per game. Church shoots 62.7% from the field, leads the team in offensive rebounds, is judicious with fouls, a good interior passer, and takes care of the ball well.

The MSU backcourt is led by 5’10” junior newcomer Dequon Miller, who puts up a lot of shots to get his 11.8 points per game. Miller leads the team in field goal attempts, three point attempts, free throw attempts, and turnovers. Six-five sophomore guard Chris Kendrix shoots for a lot more accuracy than Miller, and averages 10.8 points and 4.3 rebounds. Dorian Williams, a 6’3” senior point guard, is the usual starter and averages 7.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game; if he’s still out because of the hamstring 6’2” freshman Jarred Dixon will take his spot.

Coming off the bench are 6’4” freshman guard Ryan Kreklow, 6’6” senior forward Loomis Gerring, and 6’8” juco newcomer Jordan Martin. Kreklow averages 6.2 ppg in 19.3 minutes; he can shoot the three, has good hands, and plays good defense.

Without the services of Austin Ruder, the Bears are one of the worst three point shooting teams in college basketball—342nd among 351 teams in three point percentage (.281), and 327th in threes made. They also allow the opposition a high percentage on shots from distance, 39.3%. Yet in their last game, they beat UNI (despite the Panthers’ 45.3% three point shooting) with great interior defense, controlling the pace, and keeping UNI off the free throw line (only nine fouls committed in the game, resulting in only four UNI free throw attempts).

Teams with a good inside/out scoring combination, teams who attack the basket and get to the free throw line, and teams that play at a pace of 70 or more points per game usually end up on the winning side against the Bears.


Loyola game notes: http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/loy ... 108aaa.pdf

Missouri State game notes: http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/loy ... a_mosu.pdf

TV/Streaming video: ESPN3 (http://espn.go.com/watchespn/index/_/id ... basketball)

Vegas odds: Loyola by 5.5

JCT,
Just thought it would be interesting to read your analysis of the Missouri State game, but from the other side of the coin, i.e. a detailed analysis of the Ramblers. I know its a lot of work, but was thinking it would be enlightening to read, as if you wrote it up for the Missouri State Bears....
Whatever

Sounds like a team where we will not be out-muscled inside. It will be interesting to see if they play a zone against us. JCT are they usually a man to man team?

Must. Win.

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So, naturally, they'll outrebound us by 10-15

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Cigarboy sucks!

KenPom has MSU as a top-50 defensive rebounding team. We are inching closer to the top 250.

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They played a lot of zone against UNI, which really frustrated them. UNI has a four guard, one forward lineup, and they could not (or would not) penetrate MSU's packed-in zone. As a result, UNI was 11 for 24 from behind the arc, but only 11 for 31 inside the arc. Making matters worse for UNI, MSU was called for only THREE fouls in the entire second half, and UNI got only FOUR free throw attempts for the game.

MSU had a 25-7 margin on the defensive glass, compared to UNI's 20-9 on their defensive boards-- translation: UNI didn't get many second chances. If we play the way we did against Illinois State, we win. We were only one board behind ISU, we shot better from the field, we beat them on turnovers, and we got to the line more often. Yes, the flow of the game was frustrating at times, but I'd rather get the W than to look elegant losing.

The short bench suggests wearing them out with a running game. I know I'm biased toward up tempo elegance, but I think we play better when we get some transition baskets.

Our problem on the offensive glass comes from Porter's belief that its better to have four guys back and protect against transition hoops that to have more guys crashing. That comes from Tony Barone. He believed in the trade off that favored getting back than the hoops created by put backs. If you institute that philosophy how do you teach effective offensive rebounding. Inherently, it's a skill you believe doesn't have much value.
Here's why that is such a crappy way to coach. THE BEST WAY to stop transition hoops is to put the ball in the hoop and make the other team have to inbound the ball. Not to mention all the other good things that can happen when you apply pressure to the other team on your own glass.

Well said 86 -- IF you score a lot, you WIN !! Simple. However OXEN BALL does win sometimes--BUT it is BORING all the time !!

I say we MUST blow this Bear team away by over 12 points !!