I think we should be a fourth place team this year, and with some luck and good bounces, third. Really, we should have finished last year as a 9-9 team in 6th place, except for those two home losses to Missouri State and Bradley by a combined three points (teams we later beat on the road by a combined 24 points). We also beat Southern Illinois by 14 on the road after losing by 10 before an empty Gentile to open the season. If we'd won that as well as the Bradley and MSU game we'd have finished at 10-8, tied with SIU for 5th, and ahead on the tiebreaker. Shows how important EVERY GAME is, especially in conference. And ATTENDANCE helps our chances quite a bit-- our only home losses with more than 1700 fans were by one point against Evansville and a blowout to Wichita State.
We should be headed into this season healthier and deeper than at any time since the beginning of the 2014-15 season. Northern Iowa and Wichita State will be retooling; Evansville will be completely different; Illinois State loses their 1st and 5th leading scorers; and some of our longtime nemesis players in the league-- Anthony Beane, Devonte Brown, Bola Olaniyan, Camyn Boone, Khristian Smith, Dominik Olejniczak, etc.-- have either graduated or transferred. Only three of the top 13 scorers from last year are back. The top four rebounders-- and nine of the top 20 in the league-- are gone.
I think this might be the year we get our first win against Wichita State, probably at home (
we've come somewhat close a couple times). I'd like to see us get our first road win at Indiana State, and we'll need sweeps of SIU, Missouri State, Bradley, Evansville, and Drake (maybe sweeping 4 out of 5 of those). That should put us at about 11-7 or 12-6, which should be good enough for the top four in a year where the top programs are re-sorting their lineups.