A member named Hacksaw from PantherNation.com (the UNI site) put out his 100,000 simulation model results earlier today, which shows Loyola with a 74% chance of getting the third seed at Arch Madness. Technically, we're still in the running (a remote possibility less than 1%) for the #2 seed, and we're a 16% and 6% probability for #4 and #5.

http://www.panthernation.com/showthread.php?t=65583

If we do get the #3 seed, we'll be paired up with #6 in the opening game, so keep a watch on that space. With UNI, Drake, Missouri State, and Southern Illinois tied at 5-5, it's muddled right now. Watch out what you wish for, but from that group I think I'd prefer facing one of the Iowas at a neutral site in St. Louis. We'll see pretty soon (26 hours) how we match up with Missouri State on the road, and we haven't seen SIU at all yet.

I am not sure who I would rather face in a semifinal matchup between ISUr and WSU. My gut wants to say ISUr but after how we played against WSU last Arch Madness as well as this season...

I thought The Hacksaw Probabilities was the title of your first mystery novel.

_________________
MBB Scholarship Chart

"It was a dark and stormy night....."

I swear if the number keys on JCT's computer were blocked, he'd be incapable of making a post.
Sometimes my brain hurts after reading one of his posts with all the math and statistics he crams into them which do violence to my poetic sensibilities.

Enough, I say, Enough!

Here's a JCT preview stripped of all unnecessary words.

#3 LU (16-7,6-4)(RPI 112) v. #5 MSU (14-9, 5-5)(RPI 144) 1/31/2017 @ 7:00, Sp. Mo. 65801


#35: 23-23 734 31.9 127-265 . 4 731-86 . 3 6 0 80-101 . 7 9 2 13 99 112 4.9 52 1 105 71 16 39 365 15.9
#24: 23-7 551 24.0 133-188 . 7 0 7 9-20 . 4 5 0 56-87 . 6 4 4 27 64 91 4.0 57 3 21 36 7 12 331 14.4
#00: 20-20 632 31.6 99-182 . 5 4 4 40-81 . 4 9 4 38-57 . 6 6 7 21 108 129 6.5 32 0 27 25 1 21 276 13.8
#13: 23-23 710 30.9 92-195 . 4 7 2 43-97 . 4 4 3 36-48 . 7 5 0 8 45 53 2.3 56 1 74 38 2 24 23-23 723 31.4 70-148 . 4 7 3 38-84 . 4 5 2 18-26 . 6 9 2 7 65 72 3.1 63 2 72 31 8 34 196 8.5
#04: 23-2 392 17.0 32-82 . 3 9 0 13-43 . 3 0 2 23-29 . 7 9 3 5 42 47 2.0 34 0 25 27 2 6 100 4.3
#22: 3-0 38 12.7 5-9 . 5 5 6 1-3 . 3 3 3 0-2 . 0 0 0 3 6 9 3.0 3 0 0 3 2 1 11 3.7
#23: 21-0 284 13.5 26-63 . 4 1 3 8-30 . 2 6 7 8-10 . 8 0 0 3 25 28 1.3 29 0 15 13 4 13 68 3.2
#32: 22-0 218 9.9 23-48 . 4 7 9 6-19 . 3 1 6 6-13 . 4 6 2 11 19 30 1.4 24 0 6 8 4 5 58 2.6
#30: 4-0 14 3.5 4-4 1.000 2-2 1.000 0-0 . 0 0 0 1 4 5 1.3 2 0 0 3 0 1 10 2.5
#10: 1-0 7 7.0 1-5 . 2 0 0 0-0 . 0 0 0 0-2 . 0 0 0 2 2 4 4.0 1 0 1 1 0 0 2 2.0
:25: 17-0 138 8.1 10-31 . 3 2 3 6-17 . 3 5 3 4-5 . 8 0 0 4 17 21 1.2 8 0 7 6 2 4 30 1.8
#31: 22-17 184 8.4 13-29 . 4 4 8 0-0 . 0 0 0 7-16 . 4 3 8 11 29 40 1.8 26 0 7 4 7 4 33 1.5
#33: 4-0 9 2.3 2-6 . 3 3 3 0-1 . 0 0 0 0-0 . 0 0 0 0 3 3 0.8 0 0 1 0 1 1 4 1.0
#01: 8-0 19 2.4 1-7 . 1 4 3 0-3 . 0 0 0 4-5 . 8 0 0 2 1 3 0.4 2 0 0 2 0 1 6 0.8
#44: 3-0 9 3.0 1-1 1.000 0-0 . 0 0 0 0-0 . 0 0 0 1 3 4 1.3 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0.7
#02: 4-0 13 3.3 1-2 . 5 0 0 0-0 . 0 0 0 0-0 . 0 0 0 0 1 1 0.3 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0.5
Team 24 38 62 4
Total.......... 23 4675 640-1265 . 5 0 6 197-486 . 4 0 5 280-401 . 6 9 8 143 571 714 31.0 392 7 361 272 56 166 1757 76.4
Opponents...... 23 4675 556-1252 . 4 4 4 155-434 . 3 5 7 277-393 . 7 0 5 194 547 741 32.2 413 - 253 349 66 121 1544 67.1
TEAM STATISTICS LUC OPP
SCORING 1757 1544
Points per game 76.4 67.1
Scoring margin +9.3 -
FIELD GOALS-ATT 640-1265 556-1252
Field goal pct . 5 0 6 . 4 4 4
3 POINT FG-ATT 197-486 155-434
3-point FG pct . 4 0 5 . 3 5 7
3-pt FG made per game 8.6 6.7
FREE THROWS-ATT 280-401 277-393
Free throw pct . 6 9 8 . 7 0 5
F-Throws made per game 12.2 12.0
REBOUNDS 714 741
Rebounds per game 31.0 32.2
Rebounding margin -1.2 -
ASSISTS 361 253
Assists per game 15.7 11.0
TURNOVERS 272 349
Turnovers per game 11.8 15.2
Turnover margin +3.3 -
Assist/turnover ratio 1.3 0.7
STEALS 166 121
Steals per game 7.2 5.3
BLOCKS 56 66
Blocks per game 2.4 2.9
ATTENDANCE 19751 48215
Home games-Avg/Game 12-1646 8-5999
Neutral site-Avg/Game - 3-75
Score by Periods 1st 2nd OT OT2 Totals
Loyola Chicago 833 895 18 11 1757
Opponents 764 754 12 14 1544
Date Opponent Score Att.
11/11/16 ALCORN STATE W 69-44 1801
11/13/16 IU NORTHWEST W 100-51 1092
11/14/16 EUREKA W 97-59 1009
11/18/16 vs Saint Joseph's L 57-71 0
11/19/16 vs Oral Roberts W 78-53 0
11/21/16 vs Washington State W 88-79 224
11/26/16 at NC State L 77-79 15141
11/30/16 NORFOLK STATE W 75-62 1118
12/3/16 SAN DIEGO STATE W 65-59 2189
12/7/16 WRIGHT STATE W 77-64 1428
12/10/16 MILWAUKEE W 72-56 1696
12/17/16 at UIC Wot 81-75 2376
12/20/16 at TOLEDO L 70-74 3452
* 12/29/16 at Drake L 98-102 3007
* 01/01/17 ILLINOIS STATE L 59-81 1678
* 01/04/17 UNI W 77-66 1269
* 01/07/17 at Bradley W 78-62 5506
* 01/11/17 at Wichita State L 75-87 10506
* 01/15/17 MISSOURI STATE W 77-71 1376
* 01/18/17 at UNI L o 2 69-72 3934
* 01/21/17 EVANSVILLE W 67-61 3006
* 01/25/17 BRADLEY W 70-50 2089
* 01/28/17 at Indiana State W 81-66 4069
* - Conference game

e Johnson 23-23 660 28.7 125-240 . 5 2 1 29-73 . 3 9 7 63-101 . 6 2 4 79 167 246 10.7 55 1 41 51 3 17 342 14.9
04 Dequon Miller 23-22 800 34.8 95-237 . 4 0 1 38-103 . 3 6 9 67-90 . 7 4 4 18 58 76 3.3 37 1 97 50 0 25 295 12.8
14 Ronnie Rousseau III 14-14 379 27.1 58-120 . 4 8 3 14-36 . 3 8 9 33-41 . 8 0 5 4 26 30 2.1 20 0 40 22 0 11 163 11.6
11 Jarred Dixon 23-4 455 19.8 67-162 . 4 1 4 8-30 . 2 6 7 28-33 . 8 4 8 19 37 56 2.4 38 0 38 22 6 19 170 7.4
20 Ryan Kreklow 23-9 428 18.6 55-122 . 4 5 1 34-80 . 4 2 5 21-25 . 8 4 0 12 35 47 2.0 39 0 20 25 1 16 165 7.2
10 Jarrid Rhodes 23-17 507 22.0 57-132 . 4 3 2 24-63 . 3 8 1 19-27 . 7 0 4 19 69 88 3.8 44 2 16 28 8 6 157 6.8
05 Obediah Church 21-16 508 24.2 54-81 . 6 6 7 0-1 . 0 0 0 30-56 . 5 3 6 47 57 104 5.0 46 0 30 27 46 10 138 6.6
33 Chris Kendrix 21-1 284 13.5 36-97 . 3 7 1 17-59 . 2 8 8 31-37 . 8 3 8 10 47 57 2.7 32 1 7 19 9 10 120 5.7
15 Austin Ruder 22-3 292 13.3 36-106 . 3 4 0 31-92 . 3 3 7 5-7 . 7 1 4 3 16 19 0.9 25 0 8 2 1 7 108 4.9
00 Jordan Martin 22-6 194 8.8 18-35 . 5 1 4 0-0 . 0 0 0 10-24 . 4 1 7 18 24 42 1.9 45 1 1 11 8 7 46 2.1
35 Tyrie Hill-Thomas 3-0 7 2.3 2-2 1.000 0-0 . 0 0 0 0-0 . 0 0 0 0 1 1 0.3 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 1.3
21 Ross Owens 4-0 11 2.8 2-6 . 3 3 3 1-3 . 3 3 3 0-0 . 0 0 0 2 0 2 0.5 2 0 1 0 0 1 5 1.3
50 Tyler McCullough 15-0 133 8.9 4-13 . 3 0 8 0-0 . 0 0 0 4-9 . 4 4 4 10 13 23 1.5 24 1 1 4 4 0 12 0.8
01 Robin Thompson 8-0 42 5.3 3-5 . 6 0 0 0-0 . 0 0 0 0-0 . 0 0 0 2 6 8 1.0 9 0 2 0 0 3 6 0.8
Team 31 27 58 8
Total.......... 23 4700 612-1358 . 4 5 1 196-540 . 3 6 3 311-450 . 6 9 1 274 583 857 37.3 417 7 302 269 86 132 1731 75.3
Opponents...... 23 4701 540-1281 . 4 2 2 142-450 . 3 1 6 320-424 . 7 5 5 195 526 721 31.3 444 12 288 285 63 124 1542 67.0
TEAM STATISTICS MSU OPP
SCORING 1731 1542
Points per game 75.3 67.0
Scoring margin +8.2 -
FIELD GOALS-ATT 612-1358 540-1281
Field goal pct . 4 5 1 . 4 2 2
3 POINT FG-ATT 196-540 142-450
3-point FG pct . 3 6 3 . 3 1 6
3-pt FG made per game 8.5 6.2
FREE THROWS-ATT 311-450 320-424
Free throw pct . 6 9 1 . 7 5 5
F-Throws made per game 13.5 13.9
REBOUNDS 857 721
Rebounds per game 37.3 31.3
Rebounding margin +5.9 -
ASSISTS 302 288
Assists per game 13.1 12.5
TURNOVERS 269 285
Turnovers per game 11.7 12.4
Turnover margin +0.7 -
Assist/turnover ratio 1.1 1.0
STEALS 132 124
Steals per game 5.7 5.4
BLOCKS 86 63
Blocks per game 3.7 2.7
ATTENDANCE 52228 31677
Home games-Avg/Game 13-4018 8-3407
Neutral site-Avg/Game - 2-2212
Score by Periods 1st 2nd OT Totals
Missouri State 849 844 38 1731
Opponents 644 861 37 1542
Date Opponent Score Att.
11/11/16 ALABAMA A&M W 96-62 3502
11/13/16 JACKSONVILLE STATE W 91-65 3330
11/17/16 FONTBONNE W 100-27 3121
11/23/16 at DePaul L 66-68 4387
11/27/16 NORTH DAKOTA STATE W 64-50 3765
12/3/16 at Air Force L 70-83 1986
12/7/16 at Southeast Missouri W 79-71 1556
12/10/16 VALPARAISO L 81-84 6147
11/14/16 ORAL ROBERTS W 86-76 3723
12/17/16 SOUTHEAST MISSOURI W 71-66 2384
12/19/16 CHICAGO STATE W 66-46 3146
12/22/16 vs Southern Cal L 75-83 2154
12/23/16 vs DePaul W 69-58 2270
* 12/28/16 at UNI W 68-64 5448
* 12/31/16 INDIANA STATE Wot 81-75 4400
* 1/4/17 at Illinois State L o t 71-74 4107
* 1/7/17 SOUTHERN ILLINOIS L 67-75 5892
* 1/11/17 EVANSVILLE W 55-51 3235
* 1/15/17 at Loyola Chicago L 71-77 1376
* 1/18/17 at Indiana State W 73-68 3875
* 1/21/17 BRADLEY W 76-62 4854
* 1/24/17 DRAKE L o t 71-72 4729
** 1/28/17 at Southern Illinois L o t 84-85 4518

Pi = 3.141592653589793238462643383279