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| The Hacksaw Probabilities https://www.ramblermania.net:443/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=1856 |
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| Author: | JCT [ Mon Jan 30, 2017 3:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | The Hacksaw Probabilities |
A member named Hacksaw from PantherNation.com (the UNI site) put out his 100,000 simulation model results earlier today, which shows Loyola with a 74% chance of getting the third seed at Arch Madness. Technically, we're still in the running (a remote possibility less than 1%) for the #2 seed, and we're a 16% and 6% probability for #4 and #5. http://www.panthernation.com/showthread.php?t=65583 If we do get the #3 seed, we'll be paired up with #6 in the opening game, so keep a watch on that space. With UNI, Drake, Missouri State, and Southern Illinois tied at 5-5, it's muddled right now. Watch out what you wish for, but from that group I think I'd prefer facing one of the Iowas at a neutral site in St. Louis. We'll see pretty soon (26 hours) how we match up with Missouri State on the road, and we haven't seen SIU at all yet. |
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| Author: | goramblers2011 [ Mon Jan 30, 2017 3:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Hacksaw Probabilities |
I am not sure who I would rather face in a semifinal matchup between ISUr and WSU. My gut wants to say ISUr but after how we played against WSU last Arch Madness as well as this season... |
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| Author: | ahunte1 [ Mon Jan 30, 2017 3:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Hacksaw Probabilities |
I thought The Hacksaw Probabilities was the title of your first mystery novel. |
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| Author: | JCT [ Mon Jan 30, 2017 4:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Hacksaw Probabilities |
"It was a dark and stormy night....." |
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| Author: | 01grad [ Mon Jan 30, 2017 5:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Hacksaw Probabilities |
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| Author: | swellafelon [ Mon Jan 30, 2017 5:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Hacksaw Probabilities |
I swear if the number keys on JCT's computer were blocked, he'd be incapable of making a post. Sometimes my brain hurts after reading one of his posts with all the math and statistics he crams into them which do violence to my poetic sensibilities. Enough, I say, Enough! |
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| Author: | swellafelon [ Mon Jan 30, 2017 7:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Hacksaw Probabilities |
Here's a JCT preview stripped of all unnecessary words. #3 LU (16-7,6-4)(RPI 112) v. #5 MSU (14-9, 5-5)(RPI 144) 1/31/2017 @ 7:00, Sp. Mo. 65801 #35: 23-23 734 31.9 127-265 . 4 731-86 . 3 6 0 80-101 . 7 9 2 13 99 112 4.9 52 1 105 71 16 39 365 15.9 #24: 23-7 551 24.0 133-188 . 7 0 7 9-20 . 4 5 0 56-87 . 6 4 4 27 64 91 4.0 57 3 21 36 7 12 331 14.4 #00: 20-20 632 31.6 99-182 . 5 4 4 40-81 . 4 9 4 38-57 . 6 6 7 21 108 129 6.5 32 0 27 25 1 21 276 13.8 #13: 23-23 710 30.9 92-195 . 4 7 2 43-97 . 4 4 3 36-48 . 7 5 0 8 45 53 2.3 56 1 74 38 2 24 23-23 723 31.4 70-148 . 4 7 3 38-84 . 4 5 2 18-26 . 6 9 2 7 65 72 3.1 63 2 72 31 8 34 196 8.5 #04: 23-2 392 17.0 32-82 . 3 9 0 13-43 . 3 0 2 23-29 . 7 9 3 5 42 47 2.0 34 0 25 27 2 6 100 4.3 #22: 3-0 38 12.7 5-9 . 5 5 6 1-3 . 3 3 3 0-2 . 0 0 0 3 6 9 3.0 3 0 0 3 2 1 11 3.7 #23: 21-0 284 13.5 26-63 . 4 1 3 8-30 . 2 6 7 8-10 . 8 0 0 3 25 28 1.3 29 0 15 13 4 13 68 3.2 #32: 22-0 218 9.9 23-48 . 4 7 9 6-19 . 3 1 6 6-13 . 4 6 2 11 19 30 1.4 24 0 6 8 4 5 58 2.6 #30: 4-0 14 3.5 4-4 1.000 2-2 1.000 0-0 . 0 0 0 1 4 5 1.3 2 0 0 3 0 1 10 2.5 #10: 1-0 7 7.0 1-5 . 2 0 0 0-0 . 0 0 0 0-2 . 0 0 0 2 2 4 4.0 1 0 1 1 0 0 2 2.0 :25: 17-0 138 8.1 10-31 . 3 2 3 6-17 . 3 5 3 4-5 . 8 0 0 4 17 21 1.2 8 0 7 6 2 4 30 1.8 #31: 22-17 184 8.4 13-29 . 4 4 8 0-0 . 0 0 0 7-16 . 4 3 8 11 29 40 1.8 26 0 7 4 7 4 33 1.5 #33: 4-0 9 2.3 2-6 . 3 3 3 0-1 . 0 0 0 0-0 . 0 0 0 0 3 3 0.8 0 0 1 0 1 1 4 1.0 #01: 8-0 19 2.4 1-7 . 1 4 3 0-3 . 0 0 0 4-5 . 8 0 0 2 1 3 0.4 2 0 0 2 0 1 6 0.8 #44: 3-0 9 3.0 1-1 1.000 0-0 . 0 0 0 0-0 . 0 0 0 1 3 4 1.3 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0.7 #02: 4-0 13 3.3 1-2 . 5 0 0 0-0 . 0 0 0 0-0 . 0 0 0 0 1 1 0.3 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0.5 Team 24 38 62 4 Total.......... 23 4675 640-1265 . 5 0 6 197-486 . 4 0 5 280-401 . 6 9 8 143 571 714 31.0 392 7 361 272 56 166 1757 76.4 Opponents...... 23 4675 556-1252 . 4 4 4 155-434 . 3 5 7 277-393 . 7 0 5 194 547 741 32.2 413 - 253 349 66 121 1544 67.1 TEAM STATISTICS LUC OPP SCORING 1757 1544 Points per game 76.4 67.1 Scoring margin +9.3 - FIELD GOALS-ATT 640-1265 556-1252 Field goal pct . 5 0 6 . 4 4 4 3 POINT FG-ATT 197-486 155-434 3-point FG pct . 4 0 5 . 3 5 7 3-pt FG made per game 8.6 6.7 FREE THROWS-ATT 280-401 277-393 Free throw pct . 6 9 8 . 7 0 5 F-Throws made per game 12.2 12.0 REBOUNDS 714 741 Rebounds per game 31.0 32.2 Rebounding margin -1.2 - ASSISTS 361 253 Assists per game 15.7 11.0 TURNOVERS 272 349 Turnovers per game 11.8 15.2 Turnover margin +3.3 - Assist/turnover ratio 1.3 0.7 STEALS 166 121 Steals per game 7.2 5.3 BLOCKS 56 66 Blocks per game 2.4 2.9 ATTENDANCE 19751 48215 Home games-Avg/Game 12-1646 8-5999 Neutral site-Avg/Game - 3-75 Score by Periods 1st 2nd OT OT2 Totals Loyola Chicago 833 895 18 11 1757 Opponents 764 754 12 14 1544 Date Opponent Score Att. 11/11/16 ALCORN STATE W 69-44 1801 11/13/16 IU NORTHWEST W 100-51 1092 11/14/16 EUREKA W 97-59 1009 11/18/16 vs Saint Joseph's L 57-71 0 11/19/16 vs Oral Roberts W 78-53 0 11/21/16 vs Washington State W 88-79 224 11/26/16 at NC State L 77-79 15141 11/30/16 NORFOLK STATE W 75-62 1118 12/3/16 SAN DIEGO STATE W 65-59 2189 12/7/16 WRIGHT STATE W 77-64 1428 12/10/16 MILWAUKEE W 72-56 1696 12/17/16 at UIC Wot 81-75 2376 12/20/16 at TOLEDO L 70-74 3452 * 12/29/16 at Drake L 98-102 3007 * 01/01/17 ILLINOIS STATE L 59-81 1678 * 01/04/17 UNI W 77-66 1269 * 01/07/17 at Bradley W 78-62 5506 * 01/11/17 at Wichita State L 75-87 10506 * 01/15/17 MISSOURI STATE W 77-71 1376 * 01/18/17 at UNI L o 2 69-72 3934 * 01/21/17 EVANSVILLE W 67-61 3006 * 01/25/17 BRADLEY W 70-50 2089 * 01/28/17 at Indiana State W 81-66 4069 * - Conference game e Johnson 23-23 660 28.7 125-240 . 5 2 1 29-73 . 3 9 7 63-101 . 6 2 4 79 167 246 10.7 55 1 41 51 3 17 342 14.9 04 Dequon Miller 23-22 800 34.8 95-237 . 4 0 1 38-103 . 3 6 9 67-90 . 7 4 4 18 58 76 3.3 37 1 97 50 0 25 295 12.8 14 Ronnie Rousseau III 14-14 379 27.1 58-120 . 4 8 3 14-36 . 3 8 9 33-41 . 8 0 5 4 26 30 2.1 20 0 40 22 0 11 163 11.6 11 Jarred Dixon 23-4 455 19.8 67-162 . 4 1 4 8-30 . 2 6 7 28-33 . 8 4 8 19 37 56 2.4 38 0 38 22 6 19 170 7.4 20 Ryan Kreklow 23-9 428 18.6 55-122 . 4 5 1 34-80 . 4 2 5 21-25 . 8 4 0 12 35 47 2.0 39 0 20 25 1 16 165 7.2 10 Jarrid Rhodes 23-17 507 22.0 57-132 . 4 3 2 24-63 . 3 8 1 19-27 . 7 0 4 19 69 88 3.8 44 2 16 28 8 6 157 6.8 05 Obediah Church 21-16 508 24.2 54-81 . 6 6 7 0-1 . 0 0 0 30-56 . 5 3 6 47 57 104 5.0 46 0 30 27 46 10 138 6.6 33 Chris Kendrix 21-1 284 13.5 36-97 . 3 7 1 17-59 . 2 8 8 31-37 . 8 3 8 10 47 57 2.7 32 1 7 19 9 10 120 5.7 15 Austin Ruder 22-3 292 13.3 36-106 . 3 4 0 31-92 . 3 3 7 5-7 . 7 1 4 3 16 19 0.9 25 0 8 2 1 7 108 4.9 00 Jordan Martin 22-6 194 8.8 18-35 . 5 1 4 0-0 . 0 0 0 10-24 . 4 1 7 18 24 42 1.9 45 1 1 11 8 7 46 2.1 35 Tyrie Hill-Thomas 3-0 7 2.3 2-2 1.000 0-0 . 0 0 0 0-0 . 0 0 0 0 1 1 0.3 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 1.3 21 Ross Owens 4-0 11 2.8 2-6 . 3 3 3 1-3 . 3 3 3 0-0 . 0 0 0 2 0 2 0.5 2 0 1 0 0 1 5 1.3 50 Tyler McCullough 15-0 133 8.9 4-13 . 3 0 8 0-0 . 0 0 0 4-9 . 4 4 4 10 13 23 1.5 24 1 1 4 4 0 12 0.8 01 Robin Thompson 8-0 42 5.3 3-5 . 6 0 0 0-0 . 0 0 0 0-0 . 0 0 0 2 6 8 1.0 9 0 2 0 0 3 6 0.8 Team 31 27 58 8 Total.......... 23 4700 612-1358 . 4 5 1 196-540 . 3 6 3 311-450 . 6 9 1 274 583 857 37.3 417 7 302 269 86 132 1731 75.3 Opponents...... 23 4701 540-1281 . 4 2 2 142-450 . 3 1 6 320-424 . 7 5 5 195 526 721 31.3 444 12 288 285 63 124 1542 67.0 TEAM STATISTICS MSU OPP SCORING 1731 1542 Points per game 75.3 67.0 Scoring margin +8.2 - FIELD GOALS-ATT 612-1358 540-1281 Field goal pct . 4 5 1 . 4 2 2 3 POINT FG-ATT 196-540 142-450 3-point FG pct . 3 6 3 . 3 1 6 3-pt FG made per game 8.5 6.2 FREE THROWS-ATT 311-450 320-424 Free throw pct . 6 9 1 . 7 5 5 F-Throws made per game 13.5 13.9 REBOUNDS 857 721 Rebounds per game 37.3 31.3 Rebounding margin +5.9 - ASSISTS 302 288 Assists per game 13.1 12.5 TURNOVERS 269 285 Turnovers per game 11.7 12.4 Turnover margin +0.7 - Assist/turnover ratio 1.1 1.0 STEALS 132 124 Steals per game 5.7 5.4 BLOCKS 86 63 Blocks per game 3.7 2.7 ATTENDANCE 52228 31677 Home games-Avg/Game 13-4018 8-3407 Neutral site-Avg/Game - 2-2212 Score by Periods 1st 2nd OT Totals Missouri State 849 844 38 1731 Opponents 644 861 37 1542 Date Opponent Score Att. 11/11/16 ALABAMA A&M W 96-62 3502 11/13/16 JACKSONVILLE STATE W 91-65 3330 11/17/16 FONTBONNE W 100-27 3121 11/23/16 at DePaul L 66-68 4387 11/27/16 NORTH DAKOTA STATE W 64-50 3765 12/3/16 at Air Force L 70-83 1986 12/7/16 at Southeast Missouri W 79-71 1556 12/10/16 VALPARAISO L 81-84 6147 11/14/16 ORAL ROBERTS W 86-76 3723 12/17/16 SOUTHEAST MISSOURI W 71-66 2384 12/19/16 CHICAGO STATE W 66-46 3146 12/22/16 vs Southern Cal L 75-83 2154 12/23/16 vs DePaul W 69-58 2270 * 12/28/16 at UNI W 68-64 5448 * 12/31/16 INDIANA STATE Wot 81-75 4400 * 1/4/17 at Illinois State L o t 71-74 4107 * 1/7/17 SOUTHERN ILLINOIS L 67-75 5892 * 1/11/17 EVANSVILLE W 55-51 3235 * 1/15/17 at Loyola Chicago L 71-77 1376 * 1/18/17 at Indiana State W 73-68 3875 * 1/21/17 BRADLEY W 76-62 4854 * 1/24/17 DRAKE L o t 71-72 4729 ** 1/28/17 at Southern Illinois L o t 84-85 4518 Pi = 3.141592653589793238462643383279 |
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