Just two games ago, Loyola controlled its own destiny in terms of getting the three seed. According to Hacksaw on the UNI message board,
we had a 74% chance of getting the three seed.After the one-point OT loss at Missouri State, that probability
dropped to 59%, and after the home loss to SIU,
it's now at 29%. SIU has a greater chance of getting the third seed (37%). Even worse, SIU's win at Loyola was a huge boost to their RPI (road wins have a premium in the RPI formula), and now SIU is above Loyola in the RPI.
According to TeamRankings.com, Loyola has a 23.6% chance of the third seed, 22.4% chance of the fourth seed, and a 25.6% chance at the fifth, and a 19% chance at sixth. There's even a 9.4% chance of dropping to Thursday.
I know it's hard to focus every single game, and bring the energy and urgency to win over the course of a long season where practice begins in October and ends in March. Even the best teams have let-down games, lose focus, have off nights, injuries, etc. But those two losses Loyola just suffered took the control out of their hands for a third seed, and put some of it on luck and how others perform. SIU needs to WSU, ISU, Loyola and maybe someone else (UNI?). And Loyola needs to go 4-2 or better down the stretch, which includes beating SIU.