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| Lots of Hard Work + Some Luck = Three Seed https://www.ramblermania.net:443/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=1869 |
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| Author: | JCT [ Mon Feb 06, 2017 2:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Lots of Hard Work + Some Luck = Three Seed |
Just two games ago, Loyola controlled its own destiny in terms of getting the three seed. According to Hacksaw on the UNI message board, we had a 74% chance of getting the three seed. After the one-point OT loss at Missouri State, that probability dropped to 59%, and after the home loss to SIU, it's now at 29%. SIU has a greater chance of getting the third seed (37%). Even worse, SIU's win at Loyola was a huge boost to their RPI (road wins have a premium in the RPI formula), and now SIU is above Loyola in the RPI. According to TeamRankings.com, Loyola has a 23.6% chance of the third seed, 22.4% chance of the fourth seed, and a 25.6% chance at the fifth, and a 19% chance at sixth. There's even a 9.4% chance of dropping to Thursday. I know it's hard to focus every single game, and bring the energy and urgency to win over the course of a long season where practice begins in October and ends in March. Even the best teams have let-down games, lose focus, have off nights, injuries, etc. But those two losses Loyola just suffered took the control out of their hands for a third seed, and put some of it on luck and how others perform. SIU needs to WSU, ISU, Loyola and maybe someone else (UNI?). And Loyola needs to go 4-2 or better down the stretch, which includes beating SIU. |
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| Author: | Blers [ Mon Feb 06, 2017 2:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Lots of Hard Work + Some Luck = Three Seed |
It will be interesting to see how ISU plays down the stretch without McIntosh and coming off a bludgeoning at the hands of WSU. That won't be an easy or even likely win at this point, but it certainly should be closer than our first game against them. Our shooting should bounce back but the guys need to find ways to win when the shots aren't going. I think it's also worth noting that while the 3 seed would be nice but only from a symbolic standpoint. There's so little separating 3-6 and to some extent even 7 that as long as we don't play Thursday I'm happy. From my point of view I'd want want the 3 or 6 seed. In this scenario ISU or WSU will likely have to play against a scrappy Drake team that would likely wear them down more than Evansville or Bradley would wear down the 1 seed. |
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| Author: | ahunte1 [ Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Lots of Hard Work + Some Luck = Three Seed |
I agree that it's mostly symbolic, but it sure would be nice to finish third in conference. The main thing is to not play Thursday, and bring our best game on Friday. I think the 3/6 and 4/5 games will both basically be tossups. JCT, regarding the RPI ratings, to tie for third we would more than likely have to beat SIU in Carbondale, which would give us that RPI boost right back... right? |
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| Author: | natetheskate [ Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Lots of Hard Work + Some Luck = Three Seed |
what our are current chances of getting the 4,5, or 6? |
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| Author: | JCT [ Tue Feb 07, 2017 12:45 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Lots of Hard Work + Some Luck = Three Seed |
ahunte1 wrote: JCT, regarding the RPI ratings, to tie for third we would more than likely have to beat SIU in Carbondale, which would give us that RPI boost right back... right? Yes, that's true. In fact, Loyola's RPI passed SIU today by ONE place in the RPI rankings because Loyola non-con opponents Alcorn State and Norfolk State both won. |
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| Author: | JCT [ Tue Feb 07, 2017 12:48 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Lots of Hard Work + Some Luck = Three Seed |
natetheskate wrote: what our are current chances of getting the 4,5, or 6? According to TeamRankings: 22.4, 25.6, 19.0 According to Hacksaw: 28, 23, 14 |
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