I think Scream is probably right. Without WSU, we've got as good a chance to pull out of the pack and win the conference as anyone. But since we're going to be-- I believe-- at least one of the top 3 in the league, it makes sense to get a resume together so you can draft behind another team if they put a great season together. Not having that extra quality win was what made ISUr one of the first teams out in 2017. Missouri State also has a long history of having kick-ass RPI numbers and getting snubbed for not having any quality wins out of conference.
If Alize Johnson turns into an NBA first round pick and Missouri State goes 27-5 and beats Loyola in the final at Arch Madness with an RPI of 31, and Loyola is 1-2 against Missouri State (giving us one Top 50 win), I want to also have a quality non-con win (NC State, Boise State, or another) to go with that in case we have also have an RPI in the Top 45. You don't want to have what ISUr experienced this year-- having a top 30 RPI and getting snubbed because your best win out of conference was at home to #87 New Mexico, and your best RPI road win was against #158 Northern Iowa.
I would look at taking a check to play at mid or low level P5 schools in hopes of sneaking a surprise win. If we lose at Minnesota, Penn State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, or Nebraska, we're not really going to be dinged too much for it. If we win, hey-- we beat a P5 team on the road. These are games that skew perception, so they don't hurt the RPI, but if you can pull off a win they change how you're viewed on a gut level. Last season, Texas-Arlington (RPI 40--
take a look at their scheduling), Vermont, Cal State San Bernardino, Akron, East Tennessee State, and Princeton were all Top 60 in the RPI. But I guarantee you, wins against Mississippi State, Texas, St. John's, and Oklahoma (all between 148-162 in RPI) meant a lot more to the committee. Lower risk, higher reward.