Wednesday, January 10, 2018 7:00 p.m.
Redbird Arena, Normal, Ill.
Illinois State is coming off a big 72-68 home win on Sunday over the league favorites, Missouri State. The Redbirds built a nine-point lead over the Bears, then held Alize Johnson to only four points in the second half in handing MSU its first league loss. With the win, Dan Muller’s crew stands at 3-1 in league play, with their only loss a 25-point beating at Drake.
Illinois State was picked to finish fourth in the league after losing the MVC Player of the Year and three other starters to graduation or transfer. Luckily, the ‘Birds landed 6’8” freshman forward Taylor Bruninga from Mapleton, Ill., who’s been an impact player in the early going. Six-foot junior Keyshawn Evans has stepped nicely into the point guard position, and sophomore Madison Williams has taken up where top defender Tony Wills used to impress. But the key addition has been from 6’6” junior transfer from St. Louis, Milik Yarborough.
As Yarborough goes, so go the Redbirds. In the games where Yarborough is the team’s leading scorer, ISU is 7-1. In games where some other player is the top scorer, they’re 2-6. Yarborough has had two double-doubles with points and rebounds, and had one game in double-figure assists. He’s had three games in single-figure points, and all of them were losses. Nationally, Yarborough ranks second in the nation (behind only Oklahoma freshman phenom Trae Young) in the obscure but important
usage statistic.
The ISU starters are Yarborough, Bruninga, and 6’8” senior Phil Fayne in the frontcourt; Evans and 6’3” sophomore Williams are the guards. Seventy percent of ISU’s scoring comes from three players: Yarborough averaging 17.9 points per game, Evans averaging 17.4, and Fayne at 16.7. Williams and Bruninga average about 6 points a game, but Bruninga scored 20 at BYU and Williams had 14 points in the overtime win at Ole Miss.
Coming off the bench are 6’6” junior guard William Tinsley, 6’5” freshman guard Issac Gassman, and 6’3” sophomore guard Matt Hein. Tinsley, from nearby Colfax, Ill. via Lake Land College, leads the team in blocks and chips in 3.8 points per game; he is third on the team with 5.4 rebounds. Gassman, from nearby Ottawa, averages 3.3 points and shoots well from distance. Hein averages 3.5 per game and wears down opposing guards on defense. All the guards off the bench could be starters in the future if they improve their shooting. Six-eleven center Daouda Ndiaye has recently returned from injury and is playing a little more than ten minutes a game; he is a rim protector and has good hands, but is not a very accurate or prolific shooter.
The Redbirds play a lot of zone defense, especially 2-3 zone, and they can sometimes be caught in transition—especially when they’re playing with three forwards. Yarborough began the year with some fouling issues—he was called for a couple of technical early in the year, including one that had him sit out much of the Boise State loss. But since fouling out of the Ole Miss game in overtime, he has had one fewer foul in each of his ensuing games, culminating in zero fouls last time out against Missouri State.
Fouls are a problem in general for the Redbirds, because of their intensity on defense and the necessity of forcing turnovers to key their offense. Illinois State leads the league in player foul outs with 12 (Valpo is next highest, with nine). ISU has a below-average team field goal percentage, but they make up for it in their turnover margin, points off turnovers, and shooting threes. They lead the league by a wide margin in three pointers attempted, almost 10% more than the next highest team.
But where they really rely on winning is by defending against the three. In games where the opposition shoots 30% or better on three pointers, the Redbirds are 1-5. Overall, ISU allows opponents to hit threes at 31.6%, which is very good—it ranks tied for third in the league. But a good chunk of the made threes against them have been piled up in three lopsided losses—against Boise State, Nevada, and Drake, the opposition was 41 of 86 (47.7%) on threes. Take out those three games, and ISU allows the opposition only 28.6% success on three-point attempts, and ISU would jump from 54th in college basketball to 6th nationwide in defending the three. The only game the Redbirds have had where they let the opposition shoot more than 30% on threes and still won was their last game against Missouri State, where MSU shot 9 for 27 on threes (33.3%). The reason was because Illinois State allowed a season low 13 opponent free throw attempts (they average 23+ per game).
A few keys on how to beat ISU, according to past performances this year:
1. Limit Milik Yarbrough’s points; make others beat you.
2. Get to the free throw line often, and make your shots.
3. Take (and make) quality three-point shots.
4. Catch them in transition.
5. Win the turnover battle.
Loyola game notes:
http://www.loyolaramblers.com/documents ... df?id=4793Illinois State game notes: Pending
TV/Streaming video: ESPN3 /
http://www.espn.com/watch/_/id/3244855/ ... basketballLive stats:
http://www.statbroadcast.com/events/sta ... 1&gid=ilsu Vegas odds: Illinois State by 1
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