Getting that RPI up can lead to a lot of good results at the end of the regular season. Here they are, in order of desirability:
1. Win the NCAA auto bid by winning the Arch Madness final. If we win out (one prediction site is currently giving us a 1.0% chance to win out), we could have an RPI in the low 40s or even the high 30s if things break right. With an auto bid and a RPI from 34-40, we might get a 10 seed or an 11 seed. In the 40-50 range, it's probably a 12. From 50-57 is a 13, 58-70 would likely get us a 14, and higher than 70 would be a 15.
An NCAA at-large bid probably died on December 17 in Milwaukee-- if we'd won that game and everything else remained the same, we'd still have an outside chance if we finished very strong.
2. Win the regular season conference title and get an auto NIT bid. If we win the conference regular season, we've got an auto NIT bid in our back pockets, regardless of the outcome at Arch Madness.
3. Receive an at-large NIT bid. If we miss out on the league title by a game or two, and we don't win Arch Madness but perform reasonably well (say, one or two wins before bouncing out), we still have a chance at an NIT at-large bid. My guess is we'd probably have to get 23 wins and have an RPI at 75 or better to make it. To get a home game (a top 4 seeding in one of the four regional groups), we'd probably have to have an RPI better than 62.
As of now, all these outcomes are still on the table. To keep all three of them a possibility, at MINIMUM we probably have to win 7 of the remaining 11 conference games.
Over the past two NCAA Tournaments, here are the RPI ranges by seeding:
12 seeds ranged from an RPI of 33 (UNCW in 2017) to a high of 56 (Chattanooga in 2016) 13 seeds ranged from 45 (Vermont in 2017) to 85 (Iona in 2016) 14 seeds ranged from 55 (NM State in 2017) to 135 (Kent State in 2017) 15 seeds ranged from 77 (Middle TN in 2016) to 154 (Jacksonville State in 2017)
For the NIT, the worst RPI at large bid I saw was Georgia Tech at 106-- Tech was a 6 seed and the last at-large into the field, but they got to the final in MSG, and by that time their RPI improved to 79. Most of the at large teams were in the 50s, 60s and 70s, and they started to thin out in the 80s. Last year, ISU was a #1 seed in the NIT, and their RPI was in the mid 30s; Iowa was a #1 seed with an RPI of 81, $yracuse had an 84, and Cal was a #1 seed with a 53. The #2 seeds were Illinois (64), Houston (54), Georgia (52) and Clemson (68). You get the idea-- RPI matters, but top 100 wins, ability to draw a crowd, being above .500 overall against D1 schools, regional considerations, and potential for getting to NYC and packing the place play a role.
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