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 Post subject: Re: Bracketology
PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:28 pm 
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Joined: Sat May 04, 2013 11:58 am
Posts: 2610
Location: Livin in the middle, between the two extremes
lusuperfan wrote:
I'd love to match up (and beat) Wichita state, but I feel like they will eventually sneak back up to the 3 or 2 lines. We're pretty much set at 12-13 barring a regular season collapse.


I’m fine with that. If you’re a midmajor hoping to pull some upsets, being a 12 or 13 seed is better than being an 8 or 9. Win game 1 as a 12 or 13, and you play the 4/5 seed. Win game 1 as an 8 or 9, you’re rewarded with playing the 1 seed in game 2.


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 Post subject: Re: Bracketology
PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:37 pm 
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Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:56 am
Posts: 3898
Location: Chicago, Illinois
This tool allows you to play with the past results and project future results to see where we (or any team) would fare on Selection Sunday. Fill in the results of games and see where we end up, or change past results (we win in Milwaukee!!) and see where we'd be.

http://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?team ... &year=2018

If we had beat Milwaukee, we'd have a shot at an at-large. If we run the table we make it to an 11 seed.

This site also has another feature that projects odds of reaching certain benchmarks. It says that right now we have a 28.3% chance of reaching the Round of 64, and a 1.4% chance of getting an at-large bid. It also says we have a 1.8% chance of reaching the Sweet 16.


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 Post subject: Re: Bracketology
PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:09 pm 
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Joined: Wed May 15, 2013 6:06 pm
Posts: 999
01grad wrote:
lusuperfan wrote:
I'd love to match up (and beat) Wichita state, but I feel like they will eventually sneak back up to the 3 or 2 lines. We're pretty much set at 12-13 barring a regular season collapse.


I’m fine with that. If you’re a midmajor hoping to pull some upsets, being a 12 or 13 seed is better than being an 8 or 9. Win game 1 as a 12 or 13, and you play the 4/5 seed. Win game 1 as an 8 or 9, you’re rewarded with playing the 1 seed in game 2.

I mean if we're a 16 seed, I'll only be pissed about it on selection Sunday. Up until then, I'll take any of the 68 spots in the tournament.


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 Post subject: Re: Bracketology
PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:15 pm 
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Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2013 9:12 pm
Posts: 610
Nice find JCT... lots of fun stuff you can do with that thing. Overall that program really likes our chances of pulling this off!!!! Sooooo exciting!!!


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 Post subject: Re: Bracketology
PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:54 pm 
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Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 12:39 pm
Posts: 2502
JCT wrote:
This tool allows you to play with the past results and project future results to see where we (or any team) would fare on Selection Sunday. Fill in the results of games and see where we end up, or change past results (we win in Milwaukee!!) and see where we'd be.

http://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?team ... &year=2018

If we had beat Milwaukee, we'd have a shot at an at-large. If we run the table we make it to an 11 seed.

This site also has another feature that projects odds of reaching certain benchmarks. It says that right now we have a 28.3% chance of reaching the Round of 64, and a 1.4% chance of getting an at-large bid. It also says we have a 1.8% chance of reaching the Sweet 16.


I would think that 1.4% chance of getting an at-large has to be similar to our chance of winning out, right? Looks like our toughest games left in order are:

1/31 - @ Bradley (50%)
2/10 - @ ISUb (52%)
2/21 - @ SIU (53%)
1/24 - @ Drake (58%)

Shows that the computers still do not like Drake very much. It projects our record at 23-7 (13-5). I think we can finish 15-3 or 14-4. Exciting times to be a Rambler fan.


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 Post subject: Re: Bracketology
PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:02 pm 
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Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 1:04 pm
Posts: 267
goramblers2011 wrote:
JCT wrote:
This tool allows you to play with the past results and project future results to see where we (or any team) would fare on Selection Sunday. Fill in the results of games and see where we end up, or change past results (we win in Milwaukee!!) and see where we'd be.

http://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?team ... &year=2018

If we had beat Milwaukee, we'd have a shot at an at-large. If we run the table we make it to an 11 seed.

This site also has another feature that projects odds of reaching certain benchmarks. It says that right now we have a 28.3% chance of reaching the Round of 64, and a 1.4% chance of getting an at-large bid. It also says we have a 1.8% chance of reaching the Sweet 16.


I would think that 1.4% chance of getting an at-large has to be similar to our chance of winning out, right? Looks like our toughest games left in order are:

1/31 - @ Bradley (50%)
2/10 - @ ISUb (52%)
2/21 - @ SIU (53%)
1/24 - @ Drake (58%)

Shows that the computers still do not like Drake very much. It projects our record at 23-7 (13-5). I think we can finish 15-3 or 14-4. Exciting times to be a Rambler fan.



I am excited about the prospects of getting to the NCAAs, but I am willing to bet there is going to be at least one more bad loss along the way. I don't see them winning all four road games and there will probably be another home loss. These are fun times though, being able to talk about this in January.


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 Post subject: Re: Bracketology
PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:27 pm 
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Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2013 9:12 pm
Posts: 610
Looks like Dan Bernstein hacked into BigJoe's Ramblermania account!?!?! Hey Dan.... stop trying to rain on our parade!!! Don't you have something better to do?


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 Post subject: Re: Bracketology
PostPosted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:55 pm 
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Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 1:04 pm
Posts: 267
JCT wrote:
This tool allows you to play with the past results and project future results to see where we (or any team) would fare on Selection Sunday. Fill in the results of games and see where we end up, or change past results (we win in Milwaukee!!) and see where we'd be.

http://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?team ... &year=2018

If we had beat Milwaukee, we'd have a shot at an at-large. If we run the table we make it to an 11 seed.

This site also has another feature that projects odds of reaching certain benchmarks. It says that right now we have a 28.3% chance of reaching the Round of 64, and a 1.4% chance of getting an at-large bid. It also says we have a 1.8% chance of reaching the Sweet 16.


I just did this again with Loyola winning out and then factored in winning the MVC tourney and still only an 11 seed. This run is fun as hell, but they really do need to win the tourney!! Either that or we can all be pissed off on Selection Sunday like Illinois State last year.


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 Post subject: Re: Bracketology
PostPosted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:00 pm 
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Joined: Sat May 04, 2013 12:11 pm
Posts: 4749
BigJoe1963 wrote:
JCT wrote:
This tool allows you to play with the past results and project future results to see where we (or any team) would fare on Selection Sunday. Fill in the results of games and see where we end up, or change past results (we win in Milwaukee!!) and see where we'd be.

http://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?team ... &year=2018

If we had beat Milwaukee, we'd have a shot at an at-large. If we run the table we make it to an 11 seed.

This site also has another feature that projects odds of reaching certain benchmarks. It says that right now we have a 28.3% chance of reaching the Round of 64, and a 1.4% chance of getting an at-large bid. It also says we have a 1.8% chance of reaching the Sweet 16.


I just did this again with Loyola winning out and then factored in winning the MVC tourney and still only an 11 seed. This run is fun as hell, but they really do need to win the tourney!! Either that or we can all be pissed off on Selection Sunday like Illinois State last year.


This thing is fun. Things look a lot better with Ws next to Milwaukee and Indiana State... Isn't the committee supposed to be factoring in major injuries now?? Help us!

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 Post subject: Re: Bracketology
PostPosted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 10:45 pm 
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Joined: Mon May 06, 2013 10:22 am
Posts: 526
Location: Oak Lawn, Illinois
ESPN: #13 Loyola vs Clemson in Boise.


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