Dear Rambler Faithful,

My name is Mark. I appreciate the opportunity to post on Ramblermania.net! I wanted to pose a question as we look forward to this upcoming 2021-22 season. Last year our AdjO per KenPom ended @ 41. The usual threshold over the years to make the Final Four has required an AdjO of under 30. I think Loyola and UConn from 2013-14 have been the only exceptions.

Next year it is my belief our defense will continue to be very elite. Assuming Chris Knight adjusts to our system he should help fill the gap left by Krut on the defensive end. Krut was such a quarterback for us though on both the offensive and defensive end of the court. If you think I am off on my thoughts please let me know.

I am so excited for this upcoming season. My main concern is how this team will adjust to life post Krut on the offensive side of the court?? With such a strong returning core can we mitigate the loss of Krut somehow on the offensive end? If so how? Our guard play is so legit. I really do not see a better team of guards nationally. Please let me know how our frontcourt might shake out.

As a side note. I did make this a subject heading post but if I missed a thread discussing the season in general next time I will follow that thread with my thoughts. Being a newbie can be tough .

Have a great day everyone! I am dreaming big for next year! This could really be an Elite 8 caliber team. Chicago is one of the regional sites!!

r4l...welcome and some great questions. Krut has gotten so much credit for being a leader and director that it certainly begs the question...what will next year look like....The other person who will be missing will be Coach Moser...So some significant changes. But they really have 5 players who have been starters, returning. 3 of those with 4 years experience. Question will be is Coach Valentine going to be running the same offensive and defensive schemes or will these experienced players be essentially, less experienced as they are learning new systems with a new coach? I think there is a lot of leadership on the court with Norris and Williamson and I think the same two can do a lot of the directing, assuming that schemes are the same. I think we will miss Krutwig as a player, so much of the offense ran through him. We saw Welch and Hutson be successful in short spurts last season. Can they maintain it for a full year. Last year Welch had some issues defensively getting pushed around down low and beaten on the dribble outside....but it looks like he has bulked up.....I have a feeling that Marquis Kennedy will be a bigger part of the offense this upcoming season.

Pure speculation, but Oakland had a lot of guard play with players like Kay Felder when Drew was an assistant there. Maybe he dips into some of his experience from back then

Thank you! Appreciate the kind words! You make some great points also!

I think if possible with Drew we up the tempo/pace this year and try and have more possessions. In other words try and play faster. Without Krut this could really work to our advantage. So many teams in general always say preseason "This year we are going to play fast or run more ect ect.." This goes right into your question about schemes and how coach will implement his system. Since he orchestrated our defense last year the players should be fine in this area. Offense on the other hand is tricky! Do you think we can up tempo with the same defensive pressure using our depth?

It should be fascinating to see how it all plays out. So much to look forward to!

Thanks!

Hey, Rambler4Life, good question.

Loyola's Offensive Efficiency (according to KenPom metrics) was 41 in 2020-21 (Sweet 16) and 63 in 2017-18 (Final Four). The formula is points scored per 100 possessions, and the formula is adjusted by opponent.

Loyola has generally played a slow tempo over the past few years, with grind it out possessions on both sides of the court. The Ramblers were 307th in tempo in 2018 and 342nd in tempo in 2021. That's the bottom 5 to 12% in tempo in all of college basketball. The "per 100 possessions" should balance that out, but I feel like (yes I'm mixing numbers with feel like, because I'm not a mathematician) Loyola is a team that makes other teams play differently against them. Also, when teams are on the far margin of any statistic, there's a good chance that the statistical principles are distorted at the far margins.

As the #2 KenPom defensive efficiency team and #1 defensive team (by a large margin) in all of college hoops last year, I think offensive efficiency was affected more negatively than it would be otherwise. Add the putative strength/weakness of a midmajor league and poor performances against some better teams early in the season (Wisconsin, Richmond,) and the true offensive efficiency might be 10-15 rankings better. Gonzaga, Houston, Toledo, Davidson, BYU, Drake, South Dakota State, and Ohio were the only non-P5/Big East teams above us in AdjO.

What will it be like without Krutwig? My hope is that the offense throws different looks at other teams and finds out what works. With Krut, teams could prepare for what he did, try to deny the passes inside, and double team quite a bit. Hutson's great performance late in the season served notice that a bad day or foul trouble by Krut wasn't going to throw us off. Next year, we're going to be deep and experienced, probably a Top 20 defensive team easy. We're going to have a lot of options to throw at other teams next year in terms of scoring, too. Welch, Uguak, Hutson, and Knight have athleticism, length, driving ability, and good finishing at the basket and in traffic. On the perimeter, shooters like Clemons, Norris, Williamson and Kennedy have different mix/match benefits. Don't forget Tate Hall. And then there's newcomers like Schweiger, and the length/athleticism of Damzei Anderson (who hasn't missed a shot at Loyola) that can add a lot of specific abilities. The chemistry and sheer range of options might be the biggest problem.

I can see where Valentine might start 5 or 6 different lineups during the season depending on what strategic or athletic or personnel advantages he might see against each opponent. And if there is anything I hope he learned while studying under Izzo and Moser, it's how to make halftime adjustments to correct for errors/oversights in the scouting report and game plan.

Good Morning JCT!

What a thought provoking post! Interesting analysis relating to tempo and how that forces other teams to adjust to our style of play! I agree that has worked to Loyola's benefit. Great stat with tempo being in the lower 5-12% in all of college hoops.

Can you explain how being the #1 team on defense as you astutely pointed out (by a large margin) might have effected overall offensive efficiency #'s more negatively per KenPom? Is this calculation breakdown related to the "per 100 possessions" concept?

Thanks for the listing of teams ahead of us in AdjO. A very interesting mix! I am really anticipating the potential growth in Hutson's game. It is intriguing you mention Hutson because to me he could be the real X factor this season. That Frosh to Soph jump sometimes can be huge if not mistaken. Jacob only shot 12 free throws on the year but in his 6.5 mins per game he performed well. Well enough to be very optimistic as you are.

In a perfect world it would be great to see our team FT % in the high or mid 70' s next year. With the addition of Chris Knight that could be challenging although Chris and Krut were comparable. The Nash Drill is great for free throw shooting. In today's college hoops 3 pt team shooting % always carries so much weight. Our Final Four team almost hit at a 40% clip. It would be great to see Marquise improve on that 8-33. He could be such a special player for us this year!

Thanks for responding to my thread. I look forward to great chat all year!

Sincerely,
Rambler4Life

I might be crazy, but I have been thinking about what our offense will like this year. I believe that you can play faster and more efficiently and still hold teams below 60. I believe this because defense travels and we will be taller and longer and probably more athletic next season. As a result, if the new guys pick up the defensive system quickly with the added height and length, the defense will be even tougher. We should theoretically be able to do the same things, but close out, shutting passing lanes, and help defense should be better in that system which we have been running with 6’ to 6’3” of so guards.

Now back to offense. My theory on offense requires you to throw out some preconceptions. The idea of passing up a good shot for a great shot for example. What is a great shot and are we guaranteed of getting it later in the shot clock? The answer is no. We had more than our share of shot clock violations and bad shots to beat the clock. What is the definition of a point guard? The idea of a standard point guard needs to be dismissed.

In my twisted world, this is what offense looks likes:

1). Every player has a shot matrix. The shot matrix tells you where the player is comfortable in shooting the ball, and more importantly where he makes his highest percentage of shots. I played a basketball in high school and I had spots where I KNEW the ball was going in when I shot it from there. Unfortunately, not as many spots as I would have liked. So the goal is to get the player his best or great shot according to his shot matrix regardless of when in the shot clock he is open for that shot. In this context, it is a great shot.
2). So how does this occur? How do your players get their best matrix shot? Simple. Every player on the team needs to have a “point guard” mentality in terms of distributing the ball. This means every player needs to know what every other player’s shot matrix is. Thus, when running your offense if you see a teammate on his spot that the shot matrix says is his best shot, you get him the ball if he is open.
3). Players have to be told, when in rhythm on his shot matrix spot he must catch and shoot. He has to be told to shoot it and a miss is irrelevant. He needs to shoot it. Why? Once you know the guy will shoot it, you can anticipate that shot and get to the glass. In fact if the player is passing up the shot, you take him out. Now, players may have a bad night, they are not machines, so on given night his minutes may go down, but this is basketball.
4). Now once you define the matrix, you show the kids video of them catching and shooting on their matrix spot(s). You want to teach them that when in rhythm and squared up they make the shots and show they situations where they were not in rhythm and ready to catch and shoot how their percentage goes down. For example, Keith Clemons. Keith has a couple spots that when he squares up his shoulders he is deadly. However, regardless of the spot, when his body is sideways and he shoots, his percentage plummets. So its about the player understanding his best matrix spots and being ready to catch and shoot in rhythm.
5). Does this means we just jack shots up, no. We want to run some offense and move the ball and make a team work. All I am saying is shots can and should come earlier in the shot clock when your offense gives you high percentage shots based on shooting player’s shot matrixes.

Under my offensive theory, the pace on offense will be quicker, our offensive rebounding will be better and our defensive will still clamp down on the other team.

OK, like I said, its offense in my crazy world.

If you made it this far you are either crazy or basketball geek or both!