My takeaways from the game:
1. DON’T LET THE NAME FOOL YOU – THOSE GUYS ARE ONE OF THE BEST TEAMS IN THE COUNTY –
It doesn’t matter that their name is “Nevada” instead of Duke, North Carolina, Kansas, Michigan, Michigan State, etc. The Wolf Pack are loaded with size, talent, athleticism and experience. Additionally, if you look at their schedule, we are probably one of the top 3, if not the best, teams they have on their schedule. While those other big names are beating up on each other in conference play, Nevada is going to roll the rest of the way through the season. Undefeated, or a season with 1 or 2 slip-up losses, is almost a definite. Translation – We played the team last night with the highest likelihood of being a #1 seed in the tournament come March.
2. FEEL BAD ABOUT THE LOSS, BUT THERE’S NO REASON TO BE JEALOUS OF NEVADA –
It would have been great if we were rolling through our non-conference schedule, were 7-0 and ranked in the Top 25, but unfortunately that didn’t happen. We’re not a top 25 teams right now. Nevada is. The problem with Nevada though? This season is as good as it gets for them. With those 5 fifth-year seniors, three NBA prospects, etc., while this year is going to be great, in all likelihood, after this season, it’s all over. All of their guys will graduate, go to the NBA draft, etc. – and even bigger – their coach will be gone. Eric Musselman will know that if he comes back to Nevada next year, he will have a completely depleted roster with virtually no returning starting lineup – and his stock will never be higher for a high major program to take him than the end of this year. If you are a little disappointed with the way we’ve started things out this year after the Final Four run, you would really hate to be a Nevada fan next year.
For us, we are going to have a good season and a legitimate shot to win the Valley and keep building our program for years to come. We’ll lose Custer and Townes, but we will have solid returning talent in Krutwig, Williamson, (maybe Uguak), and our freshmen right now who are coming along faster than I expected. Couple that with the best recruiting class coming in that we’ve had in the past three decades, and we’re looking great. Porter will be back, sustaining and improving his system. The loss sucks, but the overall state of the program is great.
3. THE NUMBERS PAINT A BETTER PICTURE ABOUT THIS GAME THAN THE SAD OUTCOME –
We lost by 14 points (in November) to a probable 1 seed in the tournament (in March). If we didn’t play the foul game at the end, it would have been more like 10 to 12 points. 14 points is a semi-blowout, but this was not a typical blowout that should give an educated fan cause to be depressed about our team. If we got shellacked by 20 or 25, and you looked at Nevada’s box score and saw that their starting lineup barely played the last ¼ of the game, that would be cause for concern. But that wasn’t the case – All of Nevada’s top talent played THE WHOLE GAME. This means we got a 40-minute, full-game, sample of where we’re at in the end of November compared to one of the very top teams in the country – and that sampling showed us that we are about 12 to 14 points deficient to an elite NCAA team.
So if you break it down using this game as a sampling of our team’s current state against an elite squad, at a 12-point deficiency, we needed to play better on six possessions (any combination of offense and defense) in a game to complete. We get 3 more defensive stops (rebound, draw a charge, get a steal) than we had, and his 3 more shots than we hit (i.e. go 9-20 from three instead of 7-20, or miss 3 less shots in the paint), and we are in that game. We are not a bad team right now – we just need to get a little bit better to be a great team.
4. THE GAME SHOWED US WHERE WE OBVIOUSLY NEED IMPROVEMENT –
We have three losses. All three losses have been the result of SLOW STARTS. The first ten minutes of all three of those games have been atrocious. We need to score often out-of-the-gate, get a lead, and settle into our offense to improve. When we start to have better starts, the overall improvement of this team will happen.
My suggestion is mess with the starting lineup and start Kaifus. Try to get some quick strikes from outside with him while the other team isn’t warmed up defensively and see if it works. If Kaifus gets exposed defensively early, yank him. I understand that this was a tough sell vs. Nevada because of their ridiculous amount of height down low, but for the rest of the season I think it’s worth a shot. For whatever reason, Uguak has been our weakest starter, so why not try to plug someone else in at the very beginning to see if it works?
We have December, January, and the first part of February to fix just a few things that will make us a great team like last year. These guys absolutely can do it.
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