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PostPosted: Mon Dec 23, 2019 9:34 am 
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True story with minor embellishments:

A little boy about 4 or 5 was sitting behind me with his family and cheering on the Ramblers. Right after the game I stood to leave and saw the boy was crying. I told the father his son was a real Rambler fan.
What I should have told the lad was that losing gets easier to take as you grow older, but I was too choked up myself to get the words out.


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 23, 2019 11:43 am 
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ToledoRambler wrote:
My problem with Uguak is that what has been a “disappointment” in non-con play is going to end up being a serious PROBLEM in conference play. The other teams have seen a year of Uguak in our lineup and know exactly what type of player he is. There is plenty of video showing his offensive passiveness.

When Valley teams are preparing for us, they have to figure out “what do we need to do to beat Loyola?” The answer, itself, is simple - shut down Krutwig. The next question is “How?” Well obviously you can’t play him straight up, one-on-one - you need to figure out how to scheme and double down on him whenever possible without allowing open shots if he kicks it out of the post. This is where Aher is a huge liability. He lingers around the three point line, catches the ball, and passes it almost immediately. He doesn’t drive instinctively when there’s space in front of him, and he doesn’t shoot it either. So if you’re a Valley team, you know you can tell your player guarding Aher that when Krutwig gets the ball, it’s okay to abandon Aher and float down to help double and swarm him. There’s no fear that leaving Uguak open for 2 full seconds off the three point line is going to hurt you, and if he gets the ball back outside, you can close back down on him before he attempts to do anything. Take a look at what Aher’s man does from Davidson on defense every time Krut and Aher are in together. It’s genius. Also, take a look at why Aher was so open for the 4 points he scored and who passed him the ball...

I think Aher plays great defensively, but when it starts to become less about him just not scoring and more about other teams leaving him open around the arc in order to disrupt Krutwig, then he’s becoming too much of an offensive liability to keep him in for defense. But at this point - valley teams know they have to double Krutwig. Someone’s gotta be the one designated to help out. It’s not going to be Kennedy’s man, Tate Hall’s man, Williamson’s man, etc. Aher’s propensity to remain docile and dormant offensively for long stretches in games is going to negatively affect Krutwig’ s ability to get the ball.


Great points, I completely agree. Aher is too much of an offensive liability, I’d much rather have someone else in for him such as Pipkens or Welch. He just clogs up our offense, 90% of the time he catches the ball on the perimeter everyone knows he’s just going to pass it to the next guy. We can’t let teams double Krut so confidently, we need to make them pay for doing so.


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 23, 2019 12:16 pm 
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I'd rather have Aher over Welch. Welch doesn't do too much on offense right now. At least Aher has the ability to drive and make explosive plays. We've seen it from him before. I haven't seen anything from Welch that makes me confident in his offensive abilities yet.


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 23, 2019 12:49 pm 
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RamblinTank22 wrote:
I'd rather have Aher over Welch. Welch doesn't do too much on offense right now. At least Aher has the ability to drive and make explosive plays. We've seen it from him before. I haven't seen anything from Welch that makes me confident in his offensive abilities yet.


He hasn’t really seen many minutes, I’m more interested in seeing him develop. Aher’s development has been pretty stagnant, and while he’s super athletic his lack of confidence and shooting is just too much of a liability for me. I think something needs to change, Krut is going to get doubled all year and Aher is going to be exposed for his lack of shooting.


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 23, 2019 3:09 pm 
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Blers42 wrote:
RamblinTank22 wrote:
I'd rather have Aher over Welch. Welch doesn't do too much on offense right now. At least Aher has the ability to drive and make explosive plays. We've seen it from him before. I haven't seen anything from Welch that makes me confident in his offensive abilities yet.


He hasn’t really seen many minutes, I’m more interested in seeing him develop. Aher’s development has been pretty stagnant, and while he’s super athletic his lack of confidence and shooting is just too much of a liability for me. I think something needs to change, Krut is going to get doubled all year and Aher is going to be exposed for his lack of shooting.


Aher can be valuable to the team with his defense... he's not valuable to this team as a starter. I think it's fairly obvious now that he is what he is offensively. It's disappointing, but it doesn't mean he can't contribute. I think he can be an important tool defensively to sub in and out late in games we're trying to close out, and at the end of first halves. I also think he's defense can be valuable in second half scenarios where we have a 10 to 12 point lead, provide relief minutes.

If you look at the Davidson game, in 28 minutes, Aher goes 2-4 with 2 turnovers while Krutwig is getting double teamed the whole game - I just don't see how he's helping us, even if he is good defensively. I tend to agree that Pipkins, even if he isn't as great defensively, gives us a better chance to open things up more for Krutwig to work and gives us a better chance to win.

Aher is not a BAD player. In my opinion, he's a role player who should not start or play above 20 minutes a game. I would rather see Porter find a way for him to thrive as a role player off the bench (i.e. Aundre Jackson) rather than disappoint as a starter. In 2017-2018, Jackson was averaging under 19 minutes per game, giving 11 points off the bench. Uguak, this year, is averaging 24 minutes per game as a starter, giving us just 5.5 points per game.

In every one of our losses this year, Uguak has played more than his 24 minute average:

1) Furman - Furman has a good center. Uguak plays 33 minutes (scores 8, but turns the ball over 5 times).
We only score 63 points. LOSS.

2) Coppin State - Uguak plays 28 minutes (scores 5 points, turns the ball over 4 times)
*We do, however, score 72. but LOSS.

3) South Florida - Uguak plays 32 minutes (scores 5 points, 1 turnover)
We only score 55. LOSS.

4) Colorado State - Uguak plays 24 minutes (scores 4 points, 3 turnovers) -
We score only 60. LOSS.

Davidson - Uguak plays 28 minutes, (scores 5 points, 2 turnovers) -
We score only 56. LOSS.


Then look at the wins we've got against decent teams (not counting the cupcakes):

1) Vanderbilt game -- Uguak only plays 16 minutes (4 points, one turnover) --
Pipkins plays 19 minutes (7 points 2 turnovers),
We put up 78 points! WIN.

2) Ball State game - Uguak plays 19 minutes (5 points, 1 turnover).
Pipkins plays 19 minutes (7 points, 1 turnover).
We put up 70 points! WIN.

3) Old Dominion - Uguak plays just 6 minutes;
Pipkins plays 25 mins (8 points, 0 turnovers)
Krut nets 22 points and 8 rebounds);
We put up 68. - WIN.


(Blowout wins against UC Davis, IUPUI, Quincy, and Norfolk don't really factor in when comparing minutes to production)

To date - Saint Joe's is his best game - 34 minutes - 12 points. That game was not that close though.


But the bottom line is -- against decent teams, the more minutes Uguak plays, the less points we score as a team (mid fifties to low 60s), and the less minutes he plays, the more points we score (high 60's to high 70's). In competitive games where he plays sparingly, we win.



If Pipkins is a more aggressive slasher, scorer and shooter, I'd like to see him start playing now over Uguak. the chances of Pipkins defense getting better with more playing time is far greater than the chance of Uguak's offense getting better with the same playing time he's getting now.


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 23, 2019 3:13 pm 
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People keep saying they wish Aher was more aggressive in driving to the basket. Are you sure? I saw him try and get aggressive right in the middle of Lee's burst when things were going south and what we got for it was a couple turnovers. We've been assuming the lack of confidence in his handle was a mental thing on his part, maybe it's quite justified.

Can the defense hold with Lucas/Welch/Hall guarding the other team's 4? If the answer is yes then I don't need to see Aher in a starting, or even a substantial role off of the bench.

The only bright spot from that game was Kennedy's burst to the rim. He looks like a running back searching for a hole in the line. I haven't seen his kind of creativity around the rim since Milt. He's a lot of fun to watch and I'm looking forward to the rest of this year and the next 3.


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 23, 2019 3:39 pm 
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Also worth noting Kennedy has 10 steals in the last 4 games.

He’s still prone to some freshman moves offensively (forcing shots, dribbling into trouble) and gambles/falls asleep a bit too much off the ball defensively, but he is a special talent. And improving at that, just imagine if he can refine his jumper in a few years. I also loved the recent porter interview where he talked about how coachable he is.


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 23, 2019 3:55 pm 
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It doesn’t hurt to put Clemons, Hall, Williamson, Pipkins, and Krutwig out to start the game and see if the offense flows and the defense holds. If we can get Krut the ball in the post, any one of those four, can either cut to the basket or shoot the three on a kick-out.

You can get 7-10 minutes of relief for Krut from Frank.
You can get 5-7 minutes of relief at shooting guard from Wojcik.
You can get 20 minutes of relief at either guard position from Kennedy.
You can get 5 from Skokna if needed.
You can get 15 from Uguak.
Welch looks like he’s starting to come along and should be able to give us 5 good minutes of play.

If our defense was the most important thing, I would think that we would be winning games in the mid 50s to low 60s, but we aren’t. Everything seems to indicate that our team has to score in the 70s to win. We should put the best personnel on the floor to achieve that goal each game, even if it makes us less tough defensively.


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 23, 2019 3:57 pm 
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Toledo, I think the key takeaway from what you bring up is health and depth. In the first 4 losses, we were without Clemons who is averaging about 31 minutes a game. Against Davidson, we obviously were without Williamson for most of the game who averages almost 28 minutes a game. We almost need 1 more reliable guard to take minutes (ie Cooper Kaifes) For whatever reason the minutes seem to fall to Uguak. I wish they went to Pipkins more. He is better offensively, and values the ball.

Ugauk 313 minutes, 26 TOs, 12.04 min/TO
Welch 116 minutes, 9 TOs, 12.89 min/TO
Pipkins 217 minutes, 11 TOs, 19.73 min/TO

Also, it's worth noting that Pipkins is fouling at a rate of one foul every 18.1 minutes, which is 2nd best on the team. Although he doesn't stand out at D, I don't feel like he is a liability.

For me, the more I watch this team and see all the stats, I realize 2 things. Cooper would've been a huge help to this team, especially early on, and I think we need to see Pipkins get more minutes.


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 23, 2019 4:08 pm 
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Very interesting discussion about Aher.
Frustrating to see a player pass on shots, dribble into turnovers or make bad passes instead of making a play. I would live and die w/ a rotation of Welsh and Pipkins. Welsh was highly recruited, has a full career in front of him and shows he can play facing the basket. With Franklin a solid backup to Cameron, we should, I think, concentrate on development of Welsh and rotate Pipkins around that with Aher picking spots. We cannot allow opponents to virtually ignore a player on our team.....They will if nothing changes. I see terrific upside developing with this team. Let’s not worry about the short term here. PM has shown amazing patience with Aguak. I’ve been one of his biggest fans, but it’s time to show me the money. Don’t want to lose Welsh for lack of playing opportunities. He’ a solid team guy and will come thru if given the time. Just saying...
Go Ramblers


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