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 Post subject: Re: Brutal Honesty
PostPosted: Tue Feb 11, 2020 10:50 am 
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I’m looking at the remaining schedules, and it looks like in order to win (a share of) the conference:

1) We need to win out;
2) We need SIU to beat UNI on the road;
3) We need SIU to trip up vs. Valpo, Bradley, ISUb, or Missouri State;
4) we need UNI to go 4-2 down the stretch.

That seems to be the best probably scenario to make it a 3-way tie for first with UNI Taking the automatic NIT bid and first seed, And us taking the second seed.

Does that sound right to everyone?

It looks like we are our of room for error on our end to have a chance to win 3 in a row and we need a little help


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 Post subject: Re: Brutal Honesty
PostPosted: Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:27 pm 
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swellafelon wrote:
Sister Jean, I've been trying to track down the source for your "Close Game Career Winning Percentage" stat, but the closest I got was a passing reference to a similar metric by Jordan Sperber, an analytics guy who publishes a newsletter, "Hoops Vision". The newsletter is subscription-only.

Is Hoops Vision your source? That would mean you subscribe to it, which suggests you are into analytics. This surprises me as I think of analytics as a young man's game, while your prose style seems more mature.


I wouldn't call myself an analytics guy, but yes, my number did come from a Hoops Vision graphic.
I will say that I wish the team played a more analytically oriented style. We try to score all our points in the paint and we are good at it, but when we play a team like UNI who accurately chucks up 3s on half of their possessions, it requires that we play a perfect game just to keep up with them on offense because of the math. The defensive principles that we adhere to also seem to want the other team to take 3s. It's an antiquated way to play, but Porter doesn't seem like a coach who buys into analytics based on us never taking 3s and allowing so many on a regular basis.


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 Post subject: Re: Brutal Honesty
PostPosted: Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:59 pm 
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SisterJean wrote:
I wouldn't call myself an analytics guy, but yes, my number did come from a Hoops Vision graphic.
I will say that I wish the team played a more analytically oriented style. We try to score all our points in the paint and we are good at it, but when we play a team like UNI who accurately chucks up 3s on half of their possessions, it requires that we play a perfect game just to keep up with them on offense because of the math. The defensive principles that we adhere to also seem to want the other team to take 3s. It's an antiquated way to play, but Porter doesn't seem like a coach who buys into analytics based on us never taking 3s and allowing so many on a regular basis.


Funny enough, when we played UNI, we took 26 threes to their 18 :D

I don't necessarily disagree with your point, though. Problem is with Krut and Aher on the court, we only have three guys who can shoot it.

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 Post subject: Re: Brutal Honesty
PostPosted: Tue Feb 11, 2020 2:11 pm 
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Porter wants to take open shots, and to force bad shots. If you make shots and they miss shots you're going to win. It doesn't matter if they are 2 or 3s. I don't think the solution is to shoot more 3s. Looking at our conference play you'll see something interesting:

In our 4 losses we took an average of 21.75 threes a game, and took more than Indiana St, UNI, and SIU in those games and took 21 versus Drake. In fact, we took 8 more threes than UNI that game.

In our 8 wins, we averaged 13.875 threes a game and never took more than 20 and never shot more than the opponent.

According to kenpom, we shoot 56.3% from 2 and 34.4% from 3. Assuming 1 shot, shooting 2s we'd expect 1.126 pts/possession and shooting 3s we'd expect 1.032 pts/possession. So by those metrics, we actually should take more 2s than 3s.

When we went to the final 4 we took more 3s, but we had more shooters, and at times 5 guys on the floor who could nail a 3. We also found a lot more open shots and didn't force anything. I expect more deep shots next year with Norris and Coop in the mix since we'll spread the floor better.


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 Post subject: Re: Brutal Honesty
PostPosted: Tue Feb 11, 2020 2:13 pm 
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SisterJean wrote:
swellafelon wrote:
Sister Jean, I've been trying to track down the source for your "Close Game Career Winning Percentage" stat, but the closest I got was a passing reference to a similar metric by Jordan Sperber, an analytics guy who publishes a newsletter, "Hoops Vision". The newsletter is subscription-only.

Is Hoops Vision your source? That would mean you subscribe to it, which suggests you are into analytics. This surprises me as I think of analytics as a young man's game, while your prose style seems more mature.


I wouldn't call myself an analytics guy, but yes, my number did come from a Hoops Vision graphic.
I will say that I wish the team played a more analytically oriented style. We try to score all our points in the paint and we are good at it, but when we play a team like UNI who accurately chucks up 3s on half of their possessions, it requires that we play a perfect game just to keep up with them on offense because of the math. The defensive principles that we adhere to also seem to want the other team to take 3s. It's an antiquated way to play, but Porter doesn't seem like a coach who buys into analytics based on us never taking 3s and allowing so many on a regular basis.


If Kaifes and Norris were playing this year, I think you'd see a lot more 3's from the team. Hall should be shooting more (43.3%). And I wouldn't mind seeing Wojcik shooting more when he has his open looks (he is 8 for 15 this year at 53.3%). After that, Clemons is at 37% and Lucas is at 34%. Not great, but not bad.

Problem is, as pointed out above, we often have Krut out there with Aher--two guys that can't shoot 3's.


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 Post subject: Re: Brutal Honesty
PostPosted: Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:24 pm 
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with equal amounts of shots between 2s and 3s you need to shoot 50% from 2 to equal 33% from 3.......I have no conclusions , only delusions that we will figure out how to get better from 3...But from the line-ups Coach plays,,,he is trying to win games with defense and intelligent possessions.Seems to fit the team he has this year.


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 Post subject: Re: Brutal Honesty
PostPosted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 7:57 am 
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SisterJean wrote:

I wouldn't call myself an analytics guy...




Really? Anybody who knows the number of times Loyola has run the hammer set this season at crunch time seems like an analytics guy in my book.

sisterjean wrote:


Porter doesn't seem like a coach who buys into analytics ...


Actually, there is an analytics guy on Porter's staff by the name of Patrick Stacy. You might have heard of him. Maybe he's not very good at his job if Porter doesn't "buy into" analytics.


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 Post subject: Re: Brutal Honesty
PostPosted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:58 am 
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Quote:
Porter doesn't seem like a coach who buys into analytics ...

I can confirm. I do not follow the analytics.
-PMo


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 Post subject: Re: Brutal Honesty
PostPosted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:41 am 
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SisterJean wrote:
We are likely competing with power schools for this player. You think it helps us lure him in when he sees us getting beat by 30 on national tv to Indiana State the next game? These losses should never happen. You won't ever see them at other prominent mid-majors.


Just wanted to point out that Wichita State has suffered 30+ point losses in each of the past two seasons as well.

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 Post subject: Re: Brutal Honesty
PostPosted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:05 am 
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Sister Jean, a couple more questions for you.

Where was Top 100 recruit Tyrese Hunter sitting at the Bradley game? I was under the impression that recruits sat in Section 108 behind the Rambler bench. I sit in 208 and didn't see any kid who looked like an obvious recruit-type.
I flatter myself at being able to spot recruits at Gentile. Has Loyola designated a different seating area for recruits? Would love to know where to look for them next time!

Also, I noticed that you seem particularly interested in Porter "drawing up" plays during timeouts. If I recall you used "draw up" or a close variant three times in your first post. It's almost as if you carry Porter's metaphorical clipboard in your head!
Is there any particular significance to this?

Actually, I have a third question and I bet you know what it is. I won't pose it here, as I doubt your answer would be as brutally honest as your first post.


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