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The expectations for a team to take a step after a Final Four are totally understandable. Look at Wichita State and VCU, who have been consistent factors since their Final Four runs. But the difference between us and them is the play that preceded the respective runs. Both Wichita and VCU had multiple post season runs between both the NIT and NCAA that helped them build up their programs over 5+ years. By the time they made the Final Four there was already a pipeline of high level tournament caliber players committed to join the team.
Meanwhile after the F4, the 2018-19 roster was set. Cooper, Isaiah and Frank were all fall signees. We added a commitment from Tate Hall, who couldn’t play last season, but now has a decent shot at being this seasons Newcomer of the Year. This current newcomer class is made up of all post F4 recruits and includes Marquise Kennedy, who looks like a future all Valley talent as early as next year. Keith Clemons looks like he belongs and his had multiple huge plays throughout the year. Paxson Wojcik, Pipkins, and Welch all look like they belong at this level, and look like players who would have played bigger minutes on last year’s shallow (in terms of depth) team. If anything we’re so deep that it’s easy to argue someone else should be getting more playing time anytime someone is struggling. Especially because the main thing these newcomers need is experience.
Speaking of experience, going back to the start of the season we knew this team was missing two things: experience and dependable shooters. That really hasn’t changed. No one became a senior overnight. And while Tate Hall has been outstanding from deep, Lucas has been in a season long slump (he went from a 40% shooter to a 33% shooter this season) and Cooper (penciled in by some as a starter this year) is redshirting this season with injury. Not one coach in the country can make a player hit their open shots. They can scheme their players open, which I think we’ve done a pretty good job of, but the players need to be the ones to hit shots and we haven’t. And, in fairness, despite the lack of shooting (that’s been a hallmark of some of our best teams) we adjusted and became one of the best 2 point shooting teams in the county.
Looking at next season we have exactly what we need, it’s just not available at the moment. Our juniors become seniors. We have two 45%+ volume 3 point shooters in Norris and Kaifes AND incoming freshman Baylor Hebb, who’s been an outstanding scorer and ranks in the top 35 shooting guards in the country. This opens Krutwig up a ton, takes pressure off Lucas on the offensive end. Not to mention we will have two fully capable point guards. I realize it’s a different offense, and the horizon league, but the numbers Norris put up at Oakland are really impressive. Smart with the ball, outstanding shooter, and creates for others (his assist/turnover ratio was near the top of the country). Not to mention Jacob Hutson who’s been noted as having a nice 3 point shot at the 5.
If I’m being brutally honest I wasn’t super concerned about winning this season; because going back to the Final Four year, it was always clear this season was going to be rocky. No seniors, though we tried and missed on some grad transfers. My guess last year was that we’d finish top 3 and we won it, and my guess this year was we’d be top 5, but more fun to watch, which I definitely find to be true this year. What makes it hard is that we’re closer to be really good than even I expected.
That said, I have high expectations for next year, and if we’re going to make the true jump to consistent contender, it’ll be then. We’ll have 6 seniors, Krut again, as a player of the year candidate. But even after we lose that strong group, we’ll have two 4th year juniors in Norris and Kaifes, Marquise, Wojcik and Welch as juniors… Frank as a senior, plus Hebb and Hutson as 2nd year players… Plus, what could be a loaded 2021 class if our recruiting trends continue upward (this is a class in which we have real head start on).
We just went through a buzz saw of a road schedule these last two weeks: UNI and Indiana State are both undefeated at home and SIU has 1 home loss (in their fourth game of the season) all year. Going 5-2 the rest of the way is plenty realistic. If you told me we finish this year 13-6 in the Valley with 20 regular season wins I’d be happy. I expected to this season to be a rollercoaster, and honestly, it’s been very steady, all our other loses (besides Furman) have been extremely competitive. Last night sucked, but it doesn’t define a programs progress, or where the arrow is pointing.
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