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| Author: | JCT [ Thu Feb 20, 2020 8:49 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: UNI/ISblue |
Scream wrote: Doesn't this UNI loss pretty much ensure that MVC won't be a 2-bid league? Not necessarily. Indiana State has a NET around 110, which is I think higher than any MVC team last season. But with 2 losses in a row, they're getting very very close to elimination from an at large. |
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| Author: | 01grad [ Thu Feb 20, 2020 8:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: UNI/ISblue |
It doesn’t help, and it will give those wanting a reason to keep them out another reason. But if they rely as much on metrics as they claim they do (which we know they don’t) then it wouldn’t hurt that much. It’s very possible that the 5th place team ends the year with 20 wins, and the MVC ends up top 10 in NET and RPI. It’s definitely underrated this year, probably due in part to how bad it was last year. |
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| Author: | ToledoRambler [ Fri Feb 21, 2020 9:45 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: UNI/ISblue |
People can say what they want, but Northern Iowa is not officially in the same position we were in back in 2018. They've got 5 losses and their best wins out of conference are South Carolina (16-10, 8-5 conference) and Colorado (21-6, 10-4 conference). We weren't going to get in if we didn't win Arch Madness, and based on the way they've changed the system up, I would expect the same thing for Northern Iowa. The only thing that I think they may have going for them that we didn't have, is our conference is much stronger this year, which makes some of the losses not look as bad. There's gonna be at least 3 teams in the valley that will finish with 20 win seasons going into March Madness (UNI, Bradley, and us are the most likely). There's a chance Drake gets hot and could win 20 as well. I'm not completely convinced that Northern Iowa is going to win it's last three games either. I know SIU is slipping now, but they still run a very similar defensive style as ours, and more importantly, Mullins has those kids completely bought in that they can compete with anyone. They've already toppled UNI once in their building so they should have a fair amount of confidence, and SIU still very much has something to play for. It would not completely surprise me if Mullins pulls another miracle in their building. Evansville at home after that seems like they should roll. Drake on the road to end the season though -- Yikes. I have a strong feeling that UNI finishes the season up 2-1. None of that matters though -- our team needs to focus on winning out in our games, and nothing else. |
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| Author: | goramblers2011 [ Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:00 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: UNI/ISblue |
This is the home stretch. UNI's starters have accumulated a TON of minutes. I think it is starting to show. Even before our game, they struggled a bit at home vs Drake and Illinois State. I do not understand why Jacobson doesn't get his bench guys more time--there is some talent behind the starting 5. I really like Kimmons and think he provides a great spark and different look off the bench. He had a great game when we played @UNI but barely saw the floor at Gentile. Agree that they drop another one down the stretch. And, while they have the raw talent to do it, I think they will struggle to win 3 games in 3 days in StL if the starters continue to accumulate the same minutes they are now. AJ Green can't play 40/40/40. Crazy to say, but a fully healthy Bradley team may scare me a bit more at Arch Madness than UNI (still think we are better though!). |
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| Author: | ToledoRambler [ Fri Feb 21, 2020 11:13 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: UNI/ISblue |
The minutes you speak of are the most interesting thing, combined with the toughness of all the teams in the field (aside from Evansville, Valpo, and Indiana State). Depending on the draws in St. Louis, it might not be the best team that survives to win the championship, but the deepest team. UNI is starting to make a name for themselves as a team that starts slow and has to claw back into the game. Having to do that 3 days in a row is an almost impossible task with no rest. If UNI gets into two dog fights on Friday and Saturday and we somehow meet them in the championship, I’ll feel really good about our chances with what we have on our bench (Kennedy mainly). |
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| Author: | Scream [ Sat Feb 22, 2020 12:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: UNI/ISblue |
ToledoRambler wrote: People can say what they want, but Northern Iowa is not officially in the same position we were in back in 2018...The only thing that I think they may have going for them that we didn't have, is our conference is much stronger this year, which makes some of the losses not look as bad. The conference looks very similar to 2018. Here's where it ended up then for RPI: • Loyola-Chicago 31-6 48 • Southern Illinois 19-13 86 • Illinois State 17-15 91 • Drake 16-17 144 • Bradley 19-13 102 • Indiana State 11-18 181 • Missouri State 17-15 103 • Evansville 15-15 127 • Northern Iowa 14-16 153 • Valparaiso 13-17 180 NET rankings for this year: http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/ ... uri-Valley This year we have only 2 teams in the top 100 (Bradley was close both years) and we have 2 teams over 200. Also we are the 10th rated conference in NET this year. In 2018 the MVC was 8th in RPI, right behind the Power 5 + Big East and the ACC. Our FF run helped everyone of course. I know we wouldn't have made it without winning Arch Madness, but it's hard for me to see UNI having a better case. |
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