Friday, March 6, 2020 6:00 p.m.
Enterprise Center, Saint Louis, Mo.


Loyola won its two games against Valparaiso this season by a combined five points. Both times, the Ramblers had healthy leads only to see the Crusaders turn up the defensive pressure and hit some impressive shots down the stretch. Loyola has won each one of the seven games between the two teams since Valpo joined the MVC, and notching a win against the Ramblers—their closest rival and most recent team before them to join the MVC—would make Valpo fans feel as though they’d arrived.

As the #7 seed with a 9-9 conference record (their best seeding and best conference record since joining the MVC), Valpo is no easy out. It took the Ramblers five seasons in the league before they got their first .500 or better conference finish. And the Crusaders have notched impressive wins over Southern Illinois and Bradley in the second half of the conference season, while both those teams were playing their best ball of the year.

On Thursday night against Evansville, the Crusaders won their 2nd ever Arch Madness contest, going down to the wire with a 58-55 win over Evansville. Oddly, Valpo was completely shut out from behind the three-point line by the Aces, going 0-for-10 from outside the arc. That’s astounding, because going into the conference tournament the Crusaders shot a respectable 34.3% from distance as a team, and they took the most three point shot attempts of any team in the league this season. Donovan Clay led Valpo with 16 points and Ben Krikke added 10 from the bench. Javon Freeman-Liberty played the game despite being in recovery for mono; he scored only eight points, but notched seven rebounds, six assists, and four steals.

The Ramblers play their first game in this year’s conference tournament having won six of their last seven games, capped off by a gutsy, lucky, heart-stopping 67-66 win over Bradley in Peoria. Loyola’s 13-5 conference record is their second best mark since joining the MVC, topped only by their 2018 NCAA Final Four season. This is the first time Loyola has been a #2 seed at Arch Madness, and . Loyola is 7-5 all time at the event.



MVC Arch Madness Central: http://mvc-sports.com/feature/20Arch

Loyola Arch Madness Central: https://loyolaramblers.com/

TV/Streaming video: NBC Sports Chicago (delay) /ESPN+ https://www.espn.com/watch?id=0fea5f96- ... 165fc464e3

Radio/Streaming audio: https://loyolaramblers.com/watch/?Live=33&type=Live

Live stats: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=309834

Vegas odds: Loyola by 4.5

Did you write one for Evansville too, just in case?

No. I'm on the train right now headed for St. Louis. Passing through Carlinville. Tracks are rough south of Springfield, so I apologize if I made a few typos....

Probably from all of the golf balls I sliced onto the tracks from the golf course next to them down there on Sunday. My bad.

My predictions.


FRIDAY
Northern Iowa vs. Drake - UNI
Bradley vs. Southern Illinois - BRADLEY
Loyola vs. Valpo - LOYOLA
Indiana State vs. Missouri State - MISSOURI STATE

SATURDAY
Northern Iowa vs. Bradley - UNI
Loyola vs. Missouri State - LOYOLA

SUNDAY

UNI vs. Loyola = BLERS

OUR ROAD:

Valpo/Evansville - Valpo came off a 70 to 58 loss to Indians State and Freeman-Liberty didn’t play. The mono report on him is huge. He’s obviously struggling, as evidenced by his performance tonight. Valparaiso has a short bench, and JFL had to play 36 minutes for them to barely scratch out a win. We are going to get a tired Valpo team tomorrow. JFL will be achy, tired and not nearly 100% for our game.

LOYOLA-VALPO
Our fresh legs and defense should prevail early against valpo on Friday. If we get out to a hot start and can sub early and utilize our bench, we’ll be in great shape. If we get big minutes (8 to 14) from Welch, Frank, Skokna (maybe pipkins) we have done it right. If it’s still a game in the last 10 minutes, I still think we win, but I’ll be concerned about our legs going into Saturday.

Missouri State/Indiana State -
This is the first game of only 2 where I see an upset happening. MSU has looked strong toward the end of the season, and ISU seems to be wearing out. BUT - ISU has had a week to rest and game plan. My opinion is that it doesn’t matter as much about which team we draw to play in the second round between these two, but rather what type of game between the two was played on Friday. A blowout by either team in this game helps us none. As long as there is a competitive game where both teams’ starters all play 30+ minutes, if that happens I don’t think it matters much who we get. Ultimately, I think it’s either MSU in a blowout or MSU in a very close game. Odds are it’ll be close.

Loyola vs. Missouri state (or ISU) - we match up better with ISU, and Prim has the ability to give us problems. We’ve proven we can take both teams this year at home, but we stunk up the gym against ISU on the road. I take a rested Loyola who cruised on Friday over either of these teams - but if for some reason we struggled and Krut played 35+ minutes the night before, I’m hoping we get ISU and don’t have to deal with Prim. I like our depth in the smaller positions (Clemons, Kennedy, Skokna, Wojcik, Pipkins). We can plug and play those guys and cheat minutes without giving up leads. The harder part is keeping Krut fresh after going though Friday and Saturday, to be full strength for Sunday. The good news is we win games when Krut score 20 and we win games when Krut score 10. I’ll take an experienced Krut in game 2 in two days over Prim in game 2 in two days. Krut can still be effective on offense even if he’s not bashing down low, but MSU only wins if Prim is playing like a monster and fighting every possession. I take the Ramblers by 5 if it’s MSU and and the Ramblers by 12 if it’s Indiana State. What scares me the most about this game is free throws. I think we will have a lead with 3 minutes left against either team, and whether we close out quickly and move on or not is going to depend solely on what we can do at the line. It’s the biggest thing that concerns me in a three day tournament.

THE OTHER SIDE OF THE BRACKET

We all knew Drake was gonna beat Illinois State. This was the game I was most confident in confident on the outcome.


Northern Iowa is gonna beat Drake. It’s my second most confident outcome. The question is - what can Drake throw at them before they lose? UNI cruised in the first half last Saturday and it’s their second time playing them in under a week. Robbins is gonna do his best to wear Phyfe out and the two of them are gonna play 35 minutes a piece. Green put up 18 shots against Drake. Green put up 23 shots against us in our last game against them. Our hope is that Drake makes him put up 20 shots or more. Make him work to will his team to victory. A big game from Green against Drake is the best thing that can happen for us. They are going to win - but we want them to win after Green had to put in serious work to do it.

Southern Illinois/Bradley - Mullins has done a great job, but experience and talent wins out in this one. Southern has been slipping as of late, and I think they are prone to getting blown out. In February they got pounded by 17 vs. Valpo, 12 by UNI (really 15 but for a buzzer beating heave), and 25 by MSU to end the season. Bradley, meanwhile, has hit their stride. Their defense should make Bradley have to work (at least for the first half), but the Braves will come out victorious.

Northern Iowa/Bradley (the most important non-Loyola game for Loyola) - the worst thing that can happen to us is an SIU upset of Bradley. If SIU manages to beat the Braves, they are gonna get beat up doing it, which would allow UNI to cruise to victory against SIU on Saturday. That would be horrible. Likely, it will be Bradley and UNI duking it out for a place in the championship. Does Darrell Brown feel like playing defense? He’s going to have to if he wants another shot at an Arch title. The best part of this matchup for us? All of UNI’s starters are all going to have to play 38 minutes no matter what. Bradley is not going to go down easy, and we know how chippy they are. UNI already has a short bench and nobody on it can help them contain Brown, Childs and a surging Kennell. All eyes will be on this one. Once again - Green will have to play hero and will put up 20 shots in this one. The fact that Bradley ended up on UNI’s side of the bracket and not ours is the best thing that happened to us in this tournament. I’m disappointed we didn’t win the regular season championship, but if making the tournament is our No. 1 goal, I’m glad to be the 2 and UNI the 1 with Bradley on their side, than I would have been with us being the 1, UNI being the 2, and Bradley being on our side. I think UNI prevails on Saturday, but it takes all of their energy to do it.

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Loyola vs. UNI (or Bradley)

VS. UNI
Believe it or not, I think I would rather have UNI than Bradley if we make it to the championship. Here is the truth - UNI’s first 5 as a unit are superior to our first 5 as a unit. Depending on how you measure “team,” they are a better one than us. But a strong first five unit wins individual GAMES - it doesn’t necessarily win a 3 day, 3 game tournament. UNI’s starters are playing 36+ minutes a game as of late. They are built to rest, prep, play and win on a 4-day cycle. Why did UNI lose to the Redbirds in the first Valley Game of the season? Because they played Marshall on Sunday and had a quick turnaround on Tuesday on the road. They get in a dog fight in a Wednesday night game at SIU (loss) and then almost lose to us at their gym in OT the following Sunday. In February they struggle against the Redbirds at home on Wednesday (win by only 8) then lose to us on the road the following Sunday. Bottom line - they don’t play nearly as well on the road, and they don’t play as well on short rest.

We’ve seen us head to head against them with multiple days for both teams to rest and prepare. It was overtime both games. The X factors in a potential Loyola/UNI Sunday matchup are “who is banged up less?” and “depth.” We pretty much know they are gonna get Bradley, and they are not going to be at 100% after that game. If Green has to put up 40+ shots in their first two games, and they have to fight to get to Sunday, even if we have to battle through our bracket, I still think our depth gives us an edge.

It’s a big day! Hopefully the start of our huge run!

Let’s win the whole damn thing !

Nicely done and very insightful, Toledo. And perfect timing... the STL skyline just appeared on the right side of the train....

Vegas has us as only 4.5 favorites. Thought the spread would be a little bigger.
Northern Iowa -9.5
Bradley -5.5
Missouri State -2

It's tough to beat a team eight times in a row.

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You are droll, sir.

Heard Joe Biden is going to make an appearance at Arch Madness. This gives ahunte the opportunity to write off the trip as a business expense!

I'm not that surprised. We only have beaten them by a combined 5 points this season. Plus kenpom has us winning by 4 and Torvik has us winning by 5, so the analytics are putting it around 4.5.

Hoping we can start fast today, and make them play from behind tired. Freeman-Liberty didn't play like he usually does for obvious reasons, which is helpful. Maybe we can make our free throws against them this time...