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 Post subject: Coaching Changes
PostPosted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:08 pm 
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Cause I'm tired of sidetracking the other thread...

In my Loyola heart of hearts, I completely agree with Streak that the NW job blows and considering how hot PM was after the Final 4, it'd be a huge letdown for him to land there. That said, they do have a brand new building, good facilities, stable athletic department, plenty of resources, and Porter probably cuts his commute in half without moving.

Moreover, I think the news out of Valpo today as well as the transfers of Williams out of Evansville (kinda forseen) and Robbins from Drake (definitely out of left field) is going to really cause PM to think about how feasible it is to build us into a Gonzaga of the Midwest rather than moving up to arguably even the worst job in the Big 10 where he can go 18-14 and get the benefit of the doubt to make the tournament. Porter's teams have (with the exception of one season) never won at that Gonzaga-esque level. There are always a few games a year (more in the early years) that Gonzaga just doesn't lose those types of games and we really crap the bed. A few examples include Indiana State this year, Evansville & Missouri State last year, etc. plus the ugly losses where we didn't get completely blown out either (Valpo at Arch Madness and the game at St. Joe's last year comes to mind). If the conference goes from a B+ to a B- in quality, those losses will be deadly for us on our resume even in a season like next where we're supposed to be loaded. Long story short, Northwestern is going to be a better job in Porter's mind than we think just because the high majors are really putting the screws to the mid majors, making that tightrope walk that Gonzaga's perfected almost unfeasible for him here.

And as long as that paragraph is, it was all hypothetical because there's no way Wake Forest splurges to get Collins (especially with John freaking Beilein out there ready to coach!) and thus there's no way NW opens up for Porter. The Collins name floating is a smoke screen to make it look like they didn't blatantly hand the job to Wes Miller because of his dad.


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 Post subject: Re: Coaching Changes
PostPosted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:17 pm 
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of course on the other hand....The Manning firing shows how precarious big time jobs are...plus I cant believe that WF fired Manning wo knowing who they wanted and what their chances were.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWGtjqv19ZA


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 Post subject: Re: Coaching Changes
PostPosted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:47 pm 
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On the other, other hand, the fact that Danny Manning is apparently walking away with $17 million means Porter hires Danny's agent, takes the NW job and knows that win or lose, he's getting paid.


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 Post subject: Re: Coaching Changes
PostPosted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:12 pm 
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If the Northwestern job opens up, I think Tommy Amaker is higher on their list than Porter. Amaker is off the Coach K tree (like Collins), has been successful at Harvard, and has been able to recruit nationally. That being said, I think Porter would definitely be on Northwestern's list.


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 Post subject: Re: Coaching Changes
PostPosted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:40 pm 
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Joined: Wed May 08, 2013 6:16 pm
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Just a comment on Gonzaga
1. Since 1999 Mark Few is 599 and 124 at Gonzaga.
2. He has won twenty or more games every year with the fewest being 23 in 2006-07.
3. His worst won lost differential is plus 12 when he went 23-11.
4. He has won thirty games or more five of the last seven seasons.
5. He has had a top ten team eleven times.
6. 19 times his team has won the conference title.
7. Gonzaga is 31-20 in the NCAA tourney.
8 He has had one Final Four appearance and no NCAA championships.

A part, not all of the success, is due to the fact that Gonzaga has stayed in the same conference and not sought to overreach ala DePaul, Butler
Gonzaga has established a brand identity like Wooden did at UCLA and Mike K at Duke. That helps to sustain the success.

Loyola will never be Gonzaga but it can and should be able to have sustained success of being a top 2-3 Valley team and winning twenty or more games.
Porter has the personality and demeanor to be a major personality in Chicago. He has solid ties to the community and an established reputation as a recruiter.

I think he will establish that pattern of continued success at Loyola.
Now every coach hears the siren song of seduction that success brings. Porter certainly enjoyed the success of the Final Four, being on the tournament shows, enjoying the benefits that go with it that he and his family deserves. Given how he was kicked around early in his coaching career particularly at ISU, it is understandable that he would want to feel the warmth of the sun that success brings.

He did come close to taking the St. John's job. He had two letters. One was he was staying and well you know what the other was. But he has to be thanking his lucky starts that he did not take the money at go to St. John's. The AD did not want him (but the AD's boss did), the fans and the alums did not (there is a bias against Chicago and the Midwest (having worked at Citibank in New York I experienced some of that), Chris Mullins a Johnnie icon was driven off and Porter avoided the devastation of the Corona virus not to mention the stress. The BQE is not the Outer Drive and Queens is not Winnetka. He is a Cubs fan and not a Mets fan.

All that said, Porter's system stresses four guards. I doubt that would work in the Big Ten. He emphasizes character and the development of culture. His standard is high, higher than most. The coaching chair at Northwestern has been filled by many who tried and all have failed. If he is asked about the job, I wish him all the success in the world but I wonder why he would want all of that stress of rebuilding and trying to build a true winner. Porter would not be content with 18-14.
Northwestern will never be the Duke of the Big Ten. So I just don't see Northwestern. He is too smart for that.
I could see Creighton where he played but only after his children are out of college. I could see a pro job late in his career even the Bulls but that would just to be get a break from recruiting (which he loves to do) and the big bucks like Brad Stevens. But even then I am not sure that Porter would be content for a job at which the players called the shots. Phil Jackson had the personality to accept Jordan, Pippen and Rodman but that is not Porter.

But no matter what, I would want nothing but the best for Porter. He deserves the best for all that he has done for Loyola.

That's my two cents worth.


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 Post subject: Re: Coaching Changes
PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:15 am 
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I still don't think Porter leaves us for a dead-end P5 program, but I think his standard has dropped a little. There were rumblings that he was trying to angle for the Louisville job during the Final 4 run. I think 2 years ago, that was his benchmark for his next job: a bonafide blue blood program or a massive, can't turn down contract at a less than blue blood basketball school but that has a lot of football money & resources (like Shaka Smart at Texas). In Big 10 terms, that would be schools like Indiana, either Michigan school, Ohio State, maybe Wisconsin and Illinois. Now, with the waters changing in CBB and the odds getting more and more stacked against mid-majors, I think he'd be a lot more open to an offer from that second tier of schools (Minnesota, Iowa, etc.). The question then becomes how much further down in the Big 10 pecking order does NW go and how much of a premium does PM place on not moving (as well as what kind of relationships at/perceptions of NW does he already have) to outweigh their place in the Big 10.

Sure, he'd be uncomfortable with 18-15 in the Big 10, but that would probably get him in the NCAA Tournament. 23-11 in the Valley might get him locked out of the NIT if the marquee players keep leaving the conference. That's the unfortunate reality of Loyola's situation, and the only way that changes would be if the selection committee came down with what Lunardi and most other college basketball fans have been saying for years: anyone with a losing conference record shouldn't get an at-large bid.


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 Post subject: Re: Coaching Changes
PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:05 pm 
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Some good,interesting posts on the psyche of Coach Moser....I think the answer comes down to what type of person he is personally and professionally.
I think both factor in...
Personally.I think he is a family man, a Chicago man and loyal person.
Professionally I think he is highly competitive but unknown to me is how confident to me is how confident he is ?
Personally I think family is high on his list and as 25 said he still has kids in school....I think the Midwest and Chicago area has a pull on him but that entails a lot of destinations.... as far as loyalty I cannot believe him feeling any guilt in leaving LU in terms of loyalty as he must feel he has given us more than he has taken
Professionally...he has to be asking himself...what could I really do if I had all the resources and higher rated players? I want to get to the top , coach against the best on a consistent basis...see what I am made of.....on the other had if he is not confident in himself and sees the chance of failure moving up???

So which would you rather have as your WIKIPEDIA Page

1. After several coaching stops including a Final Four appearance with Loyola of CHicago Porter Moser went to Indiana where........?
with ? B10 titles and ? NCAA appearance.

2.Porter Moser after several stops finished his career at Loyola of Chicago.where he established a consistently winning program. After an appearance in a Final Four in 17-18. Porter finished his career as the winningest coach in LU history...this includes ? MVC championships and ? appearances in the NCAA tnmt.


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 Post subject: Re: Coaching Changes
PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:58 pm 
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It’s pretty simple: if Porter wants a job at an elite program, he needs to get to the sweet sixteen next year.

The final four run was miraculous and the feel-good story of college basketball that year, but it still can be considered a one-off. Next year is his chance to cap off a 4 year track record of sustained success with his system and the type of guys he feels he can win with. The Final Four run gave him the chance to recruit players that would not have given him any thought in his first four years at Loyola. If his resume shows the last 4 years - four 20+ win seasons, 3 regular season Valley championships, 2 conference tournament championships, a Final Four and a Sweet 16...there is no longer any question marks by his name. He will have secured himself as a bona fide, elite college coach worthy of an elite school as his partner. BUT - I think he knows he needs the right fit if that happened and I don’t think he leaves the Midwest. I think if he delivers next year and a job opened up at:

Notre Dame
Michigan State
Michigan
Ohio State
Indiana
Wisconsin
Louisville

He goes. At that point he would have completely restored Loyola to basketball relevance, and he would deserve an opportunity to have the chance to see what he can do with blank checks and infinite resources to recruit and compete for national titles on a yearly basis. I would not begrudge him.

If he knocks it out of the park and gets offers from:

Xavier
Marquette
Depaul
Northwestern
Minnesota
Creighton
Dayton
Or any bottom feeder that fires their coach from a power five conference...

While I couldn’t be mad he left, I think it would be a huge mistake.

The biggest mistake would be a power conference cellar team.

This isn’t a criticism about Porter, but rather my feeling about him as a coach. If he is going to succeed at a power conference school, he has to inherit an active winning culture (i.e. Izzo retires)- he can’t just step into an empty cupboard and win in 3 years - he’s not that kind of coach. Porter doesn’t adapt to the type of players he has, rather, he makes the players either adapt to his system, or get the hell out. Any power conference school picking him up after a firing is going to have to be willing to accept 11 to 15 win seasons for 4 years. Also, Porter, himself, would have to accept the same. I, personally, think that he is young enough to run a successful program, but at this point, too old to start over and build one, and the risk to try is too great (again, because I think he wants to coach for a long time). I think that’s the true reason he’s not at St. John’s.

For as much as Porter has done, I don’t think he can deny that Loyola afforded him an opportunity a lot of schools wouldn’t have. In 3 seasons he went 7-23, 15-16, and 10-22. (5-28 in the horizon league and 4-14 in the valley). With us starting a new conference, if LU pulled the plug on him after Year 3, NOBODY would have been outraged. (I think even about half of us here were outraged they didn’t). Bottom line - Porter caught a break by keeping his post, and with a third head coaching failure, he was not going to get another shot any time in the near future if LU axed him... if ever at all.

I think Porter is an extremely smart guy that gets it. There’s no doubt in my mind he wants a national title. There’s no doubt in my mind he wants to win. And there’s little doubt in my mind that he wants to risk failure when he’s got a great thing he can’t lose any time soon.

The good news is that at this point - if we lose him - it’s probably going to be because Loyola did something awesome again. I’m good with that.


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 Post subject: Re: Coaching Changes
PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:19 pm 
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Great analysis Toledo. Nicely done! I like how you tiered the programs. I do think that Xavier is a job that he would want as well.


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 Post subject: Re: Coaching Changes
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2020 8:22 am 
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A couple points on Toledo's post:

If I recall, Porter point blank turned down an interview with Xavier during the Final 4 for what that's worth.

I think that's a fairly solid breakdown of schools, but I don't think it's as cut-and-dry as that. No one really knows what combination/mixture of things in the personal and professional realms that he would value in his next job.

Does Northwestern's location mean they would outweigh an offer from a more consistently good program like Oklahoma? How much more money would a bottom feeder SEC school have to outbid his alma mater Creighton if that job came open? If he's holding out for a marquee job like Michigan State, how much longer would he want to stay at Loyola and risk losing his luster like Phil Martelli (St. Joe's head coach now the top assistant at Michigan)? In the last 50 seasons, Michigan State has had 3 head coaches. Indiana has had 4 since they fired Bobby Knight. Does he want to go into that hornets' nest? Or conversely be the guy following a legend like Izzo? What does his market look like if we make the tournament next year as a 13 seed (underseeded by the committee again), but unlike Donte's buzzer beater, Tate Hall's shot rims out and we lose our first round matchup?

There are a thousand other questions like that. Loyola can only control is what it can control. The overall landscape is shifting against us (transfer rules, NIL rules which will be ripe with abuse and open up plenty of other avenues for cheating, NCAA tournament resumes, etc.); my point is we want to do everything we can to keep the program relevant and him happy until it gets to the point where he feels there's nothing more he can accomplish here. I do feel like that day will eventually come though.


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