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Path to the Dance
https://www.ramblermania.net:443/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=3368		 Page 1 of 4
Author:  ramblermgr9599 [ Mon Feb 21, 2022 9:02 am ]
Post subject:  Path to the Dance
In:
1. Win Arch
2. Win the last 3 regular season games and win at least one game at Arch.

Out:
1. Lose any of the next three and lose in St. Louis

Bubble:
Win the next 3 and lose on Friday at Arch. Either a First Four team or a home NIT game.

*currently we are projected as a “Last Four In”…meaning First Four in Dayton.

Thoughts?

Successful season for me:
1. NCAA bid with a competitive first round game
2. NIT Final 4 (thinking I would prefer this over a NCAA First Four loss…maybe).
Author:  goramblers2011 [ Mon Feb 21, 2022 9:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Path to the Dance
I think if we win the next 3 and only one win in StL, we are firmly on the bubble. Win the next 3 and lose on Sunday, we might be in the "First Four".

A lot of it depends on how other things play out. Always a concern about bid stealers (see Oregon State and Georgetown last year). And the P5 bubble teams (Rutgers, Michigan, Oklahoma) have numerous Q1 opportunities (i.e., a win helps big time but a loss doesn't really hurt). Going to be extremely frustrating when we are on the bubble with teams that have 12+ losses.
Author:  01grad [ Mon Feb 21, 2022 11:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Path to the Dance
If we win out and then lose on Friday, that means we lose to one of the bottom 4 teams in the conference. Which would be a terrible loss and pop any bubble we might still be in.

If we don’t win Arch Madness, I think we need to at least make it to Sunday and that loss has to be close. Then we might still reside in a bubble.
Author:  jdubs [ Mon Feb 21, 2022 1:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Path to the Dance
I think way more rides on the next three games than we’re thinking. Not only is it important to win the next 3, but winning big could help us a lot. Even if the the next two teams we play aren’t great, winning by 20 would definitely help our metrics. Also the longer we go, the more games other teams have that they could lose and allow us to pass. We have to win by as many points as possible
Author:  ahunte1 [ Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Path to the Dance
jdubs wrote:
I think way more rides on the next three games than we’re thinking. Not only is it important to win the next 3, but winning big could help us a lot. Even if the the next two teams we play aren’t great, winning by 20 would definitely help our metrics. Also the longer we go, the more games other teams have that they could lose and allow us to pass. We have to win by as many points as possible


Yup. Said this the other day. Just winning was fine for last week. Now we need to beat expectations, too, so we can hopefully jump back into the top 30 in the metrics.
Author:  Rambling0101 [ Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Path to the Dance
I just don’t see a path, other than whining on St Louis for us to get in. I don’t think USF will be in the field, which leaves us without anything to hang our hats on in terms of whey victories. But, more importantly, the committee always awards the team that is hot at tourney time. We just aren’t that team.

Get Kennedy as healthy as possible, make some adjustments and roll in ST Louis.
Author:  jdubs [ Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Path to the Dance
Maybe it’s just the optimist in me, but I really think our school name will give us a lot of help come selection Sunday. Our last two tournament appearances have involved runs to the final four and sweet 16 so we’ve shown that we can win on this stage. We are the only Chicago school that has a shot at getting in and we also have Sister Jean which is massive for ratings. While I don’t think that those things alone will get us in if we don’t finish the season strong, I think they give us an advantage over teams like SF that are also on the bubble
Author:  goramblers2011 [ Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Path to the Dance
jdubs wrote:
Maybe it’s just the optimist in me, but I really think our school name will give us a lot of help come selection Sunday. Our last two tournament appearances have involved runs to the final four and sweet 16 so we’ve shown that we can win on this stage. We are the only Chicago school that has a shot at getting in and we also have Sister Jean which is massive for ratings. While I don’t think that those things alone will get us in if we don’t finish the season strong, I think they give us an advantage over teams like SF that are also on the bubble


On CBS' "Eye on College Basketball" podcast with Gary Parrish and Matt Norlander yesterday, this was kind of discussed. They noted that if, say, Illinois State had the same same resume as we currently do, they might not even be in the discussion for an at-large. But our name and recent success is a legit boost. Not sure if I totally agree but worth noting.
Author:  Rambler303 [ Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Path to the Dance
Slightly off topic:

How crazy are the last two posts? A lot of us went through lean years and were a Horizon league doormat, in a short decade we went from that to being discussed as a national brand. I remember sitting in a near empty Gentile with a friend discussing how much better we could and should be. Just crazy that we did make it, and we should all be thankful for such a meteoric rise.

Back ti the point, we need to win. That’s it, just win. Realistically, we need to win out and get to Arch Madness Championship to have a shot at an at large. Hopefully the guys are just focusing on winning it all, that will make everything else less complicated. I agree we do have some things in our favor being a “Cinderella”, Sister Jean, past giant slayer, and the Chicago market; but we need to have a good showing the next few weeks for any of that to possibly be in our favor. Focus should be not losing again, we can all agree on that.
Author:  Rambler88 [ Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Path to the Dance
Totally agree with 303. I remember when we hoped to finish in the upper half of the Horizon league. A win against Butler - once every few years was deemed progress.

I do believe that we have a lot of favorable intangibles, we have the youngest coach, the oldest fan, a documentary on CBS, a recent 5 year run of good showings in the NCAA, etc.

With that said, I am concerned that middling big conference teams and big name teams are improving their resumes. Teams like Florida, Virginia, Rutgers., Michigan, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Memphis, and Oregon. Those teams are going to eat up the at-large bids if they do well.
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