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 Post subject: Conference Realignment
PostPosted: Sat Aug 05, 2023 8:57 am 
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A lot of movement at the top of the college athletics hierarchy. How do you see this ultimately impacting the A10 and our Blers? Can’t help but wonder where we’ll be ten years from now.


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 05, 2023 9:23 am 
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Only short term impact I can see for now is if the ACC (possible especially if the SEC takes FSU/Clemson) or Big 12 (unlikely, they’ve done a good job) start poaching some Big East schools. Or if the Big East just decides to start expanding their numbers if more of the new P3/P4 leagues start doing 20+ conference schedules. Loyola and/or other A10 schools like Dayton, SLU could theoretically get some looks from the Big East then


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 05, 2023 10:24 am 
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It's possible that mid-majors are going to be impacted, but I think it's primarily going to be in the West. I see a couple of big issues that need to be sorted out that will determine how extensive realignment will be.

1. The Pac-12 is gutted and Stanford, Cal, Oregon St, and Washington St need to either find a new conference or brings schools into the Pac-?? The most logical solution is to merge with the Mountain West to form a 15 team conference (16 for football with the addition of Hawaii). The question is if the MWC schools want to do a full merger or if some schools try to leave less desirable schools behind?

2. Gonzaga could use this as an opportunity to get into a better basketball conference. Would that be the Big 12, Big East, or new MWC/PAC conference? If Gonzaga leaves does the WCC pursue expansion after losing it's two highest profile schools in the span of 2 years?

3. Some schools considering the move from the FCS to FBS in football could try to squeeze into the chaos and find a new conference to facilitate the football transition. If some of those schools move, what happens to the mid-major conferences they leave behind? Would this set-off a domino effect where the conferences try to replace departing schools with others setting off mid/low-major realignment? Schools to keep an eye on are North Dakota St, South Dakota St, Eastern Washington, Montana, and Missouri State.

It is possible that the Big East is impacted if either Connecticut leaves or Gonzaga joins. With that being said, they're at 11 schools right now and don't need to have an even number of schools for football scheduling purposes. Considering that, I think those moves would stand on their own and there wouldn't be bigger ramifications for the league if either of those things happens. Also, I'm not convinced that Gonzaga would rather be in the Big East than the WCC given the power Gonzaga currently wields over that conference and their ability to schedule high profile non-conference games.

Also, this realignment is driven entirely by football TV money. I don't see any basketball only schools who would drive ratings enough to cause a realignment shake-up except Gonzaga. There are schools with football in the A10, but football schools in the Northeast aren't a very attractive target (consider how UMass plays independently). I think the conference is safe for now. Also with 15 schools currently, even if 1-3 of the football schools leave the conference could continue with the current membership and selectively pursue expansion only if it brings additional value to the league. If the A10 is impacted at all, I think it would be a number of dominos down the line from here.

tldr: At this point I don't see this impacting the Ramblers or A10, but crazier things have happened in conference realignment before.


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 05, 2023 10:48 am 
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I don’t see Stanford and Cal teaming up with Mountain West schools. Academically, those two fit the traditional Big10 profile, so I wouldn’t be shocked if they took that leap.

With football and the TV contracts driving these decisions, the ACC is on the verge of being in a tough spot if they don’t make some big decisions soon. Everyone is saying FSU wants out, and if they leave for the SEC or Big10, that would be a huge blow. Miami might not stay long either. Stanford, Cal, and UConn to the ACC? A few years ago West Coast schools in the ACC would be laughable…but we now live in a world where USC is in the same conference as Rutgers.

If we end up with essentially 3 major football conferences (Big 10/Big 12/SEC)…which is a lot more realistic now than it was a month ago…the chances of Big East expansion probably increase?


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 05, 2023 11:39 am 
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I do not see the Pac 12, B10, B12 moves effecting us. I think more possible to effect us is FSU leaving the ACC...then maybe Rhode Island, UMass, UConn,Villanova moving to the ACC as they all have football programs. I could see Georgetown,Dayton and even Creighton( who just seems to have a ton of money) making a move to big time football and moving to a football confence. I think the A10 survives some defections (Rhode Island, UMass) as we have so many teams. I dont think the Big East is considering us as they have a presence in Chicago and do not know if Depaul and Marquette want to give us equal status. I continue to wonder if the Marquette and Depaul and Creighton, St. Louis and LU get tired of flying out east and we some sort of Midwest collegiate conferene again that is basketball focused. I just feel like Dayton and Creighton just want to continue to move up the big time ladder.
Davidson has always seemed like an outlier to me and they do have a football program , do they have the resources to move up, would the ACC think they have any upside?


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 05, 2023 12:02 pm 
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One thing that all of this consolidation into a few mega conferences is doing, I think, is moving things closer to a day when major football programs split from the NCAA and create a stand-alone 60-80 school football coalition. It’s a lot easier to get 3 commissioners to agree on things than it is 7 or 8.

If that happens, it would almost certainly have an impact on how college basketball conferences are aligned.


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