I agree 95% with your post, Brot. Almost all of the non-coaching explanations for this team's performance so far have pretty much been eliminated by facts, statistics and evidence.
For instance, if it's simply a matter of insufficient talent, how do we continue to build double-digit leads against teams in the first place, before we collapse like a house of cards? It is impossible to be continually talented enough in the first half to repeatedly build up a 10, 12, 15 point lead, and then have the talent completely disappear in the second half to the point where we're outscored by 20+ points. If we were always tied or ahead or behind by four or five points, that could be chalked up to energy/hard work/defensive intensity. But we repeatedly dominate teams in the first half almost to the point of their embarrassment-- as though we're an above-average BCS team-- and then we play like a bunch of somnambulent scrubs in the second half.
Probably the best example is NIU. We held them to 14 points in the first half. 14 points! UMass-- which was 8-0, #1 in the RPI, and ranked #22 in the country-- gave up twice that much in the first half at home against them in the game before they played us. Nebraska gave up 28 to them in the first half. In all likelihood, that will be the lowest first half point output they have all year.
Tulane scored only 19 points in the first half against us. Tulane's lowest point output of the year was 52 points against Texas State, in which they scored 28 points in the first half on a neutral court. Their largest point loss was at Wake Forest, where they scored 27 points in the first half. We led Tulane by 12 at the half, and began the second half on a 9-2 run to build up a 19 point lead with 17 minutes left to play. Yet somehow, it took 23 minutes of the game-- in which we built a lead as large as their entire first half point output-- for our vastly inferior talent to be exposed? That's just not plausible, even in a single game on the road. And it's completely out of the realm of possibility when a similar pattern has happened in six of our 12 games so far this season.
Fatigue? Injuries? We've blown large leads in games where that has been a plausible excuse, and games where it really hasn't.
Foul trouble? New officiating standards? We've won games and blown leads where that has been an issue, and where it hasn't.
Playing on the road? The NIU game was at home, and we lost to UC Davis after building up a 10-point lead on a neutral court. We had a 7-point lead with 3:28 left at home to UIC, and they cut it to two with :11 left and missed a three pointer to tie with :03 left.
Inexperience? An exceptionally young team? The only freshman we're playing considerable minutes this year is Milton Doyle, who is a transfer from Kansas with a great basketball IQ and the most talented and athletic player we've had at Loyola since Blake Schilb. And the same pattern happened last year-- particularly in the second half of the season, during conference play-- in many games where we had fifth-year senior Jordan Hicks, senior Ben Averkamp, and junior transfer Cully Payne available:
January 5, 2013 - 50-36 lead at home over YSU with 14:10 left turns into 68-66 loss. (Outscored 32-16 in final 14 minutes) January 11, 2013 - 36-25 lead at home over Wright State with 17:42 left to play turns into 62-61 loss. (Outscored 37-25 in final 17 1/2 minutes) January 20, 2013 - 38-24 lead at Chicago State with 17:45 left to play gets forced to overtime. (Outscored 33-19 through end of regulation) February 4, 2013 - 53-40 lead at Wright State with 6:34 left turns into 62-58 loss. (Outscored 22-5 in final 6 1/2 minutes)
Which pretty much narrows the remaining possible excuses to: coaching ability, lack of player self-confidence, and lack of an on-court leader stepping up. It's only my opinion, but I think the coach can do things to overcome, prevent, or hasten the latter two issues. But if the coach doesn't pass muster on the former, the latter two issues are more or less moot. I don't see how blaming the players for lack of confidence, lack of floor leadership, or inability to guard laterally moves things forward.
I've seen something like this situation before. In the 2000-01 season, Loyola had a whole lot of talent, but was ABSOLUTELY ABYSMAL. The team went 7-21 (2-12 in conference) in spite of having David Bailey, Schin Kerr, Ryan Blankson, Jerrell Parker, Corey Minnifield, Silvie Turkovic, Louis Smith, Hubert Radke, Jon Freeman, and Jason Telford. They were winless on the road, and lost to some really God-awful teams, even at home. There were also some big blown leads, most notably a home loss at the buzzer to Wright State on 2/24/01, in which Wright State came back from a prohibitive lead.
The following year, after several players transferred out and one player sat through a year to transfer in, the coach deliberately backed off of a micromanagement coaching philosophy and let the players develop some floor leadership and trust in each other in hands-off scrimages. In 2001-02, Loyola went 17-13 overall (for its first winning record in 15 years), and 9-7 in conference (for its best conference record in 15 seasons). They broke a 25-game road losing streak midway through the non-con season, and went 3-6 on the road thereafter (including a very close loss at #7 Illinois), 5-7 away from home through the rest of the season.
Here's what I would recommend: Hold scrimmages in which players with floor leadership potential are named coaches of their scrimmage squads. They can choose to play in the games, or sit on the sidelines and make substitutions without interference from the coaching staff. If the player-coaches want, they can choose an assistant as their coaching assistant. At halftime, one squad is told to mimic the offense or defense of one of the teams that overcame a double-digit lead against us. In-depth coaching counseling, advice, and analysis can be given privately and personally after the scrimmage.
We've got 7 1/2 days until conference play begins. Unless something changes dramatically, we're headed for a 2 or 3 win conference season. The players need confidence, and having the autonomy to make educatated decisions will help them get there. Maybe the coaches will also learn things that the players wouldn't tell them outright.
I've gone on way too long, haven't I?
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