Wednesday, January 7, 2015 7:00 p.m.
Ford Center, Evansville, Ind.
Evansville is a very hard team to figure in 2014-15. Everyone acknowledges they have the best inside-out combo in the MVC behind the league’s leading scorer D.J. Balentine and leading rebounder (by far) Egidiju Mockevicius. They have yet to prove they’re very good in true road games, where they’re 2-1 on the season, including an overtime loss their last time out against Indiana State. But the Aces are very solid at home, highlighted by a win over #23 Northern Iowa in their conference opener and a 7-1 home record.
The Aces are likely to start 6’10” junior center Mockevicius, 6’2” junior guard Balentine, 6’5” guard/forward Blake Simmons, 6’6” guard Mislav Brzoja, and 6’0” sophomore guard Jaylon Brown. Starter Adam Wing, a 6’4” junior guard, has been sidelined the past three games with a strained quadricep, and may not play. First off the bench is sometimes starter Duane Gibson-- a 6’3” defensive-minded guard-- and 6’7” senior forward/center Jaylon Moore receives considerable court time.
Evansville is the best overall shooting team in the MVC, especially from inside the arc. They are 5th nationally in field goal percentage, 6th in assists, and 21st in two-point field goal percentage. They are active passers and take advantage of aggressive driving and dishing. They get to the free throw line often (more than 22 times per game on average), and connect on more than 75% of their freebies, which ranks 13th nationally. On defense, they’re well below average in the league, giving up 64.7 points per game, ranking low in steals, and allowing the third-worst field goal percentage from their opponents.
How does one beat Evansville when they’re at home? Only one team has done it, Murray State, and it took 32 points from a 6’2” freshman and 58% three point shooting. However, the Aces are 1-2 in games where Balentine has been held to fewer than 17 points, winless in the two games where one or more starting players have fouled out, and winless in all three games where the opponent had 22 or more trips to the free throw line. The Aces typically only go seven deep, with super-heavy minutes being played by Balentine (averaging 38.9 minutes in his last 7 games). When Mockevicius gets into foul trouble or takes a breather, they rely on Moore (and sometimes Howard) to man the inside, and when the smaller subs are denied the ball the Aces have big trouble. In the six games where Mockevicius has had four or more fouls, the Aces are 4-2, with two of the games and one of the wins going to overtime.
And here’s another counter-intuitive anomaly: in games where Simmons scores in double figures, the Aces are 4-3 (and forced to overtime twice), but a perfect 7-0 in games where he scores 10 or less. It’s a similar pattern with other players—the Aces are 7-1 when Brzoja scores less than 10, but only 4-2 when he scores more than 10. They’re 0-1 when Moore scores more than 10, and 1-1 against D-1 teams (with the win being forced to OT) when Wing scores 10 or more. Evansville is a team that not only relies on two key players, they’re a team that doesn’t function all that well when Balentine and Mockevicius
aren’t being heavily relied upon.
The Ramblers are coming off a loss at #23 Northern Iowa, in which they showed some tenacity, energy and depth against a team that is very tough to beat on their home court. Evansville is less dominant at home. They’re coming off a hard-fought loss against an inferior team that may have shaken their confidence, and they have a major contributor who is unlikely to play. Moreover, the Ramblers have played Evansville close in recent years, losing two games last year by a combined eight points and winning a Bracket Buster road win and return win in 2005. The key to a Loyola victory will be limiting Balentine’s scoring, denying the ball on interior passing, slowing the tempo, and getting to the free throw line. Getting Mockevicius into foul trouble and taking advantage of the Ramblers’ three point shooting advantage would also help. The Aces may not have a defensive answer for a player like Milton Doyle; Christian Thomas averaged 18 ppg and Joe Crisman 11.5 ppg against the Aces last season. If the Ramblers put together a good game plan and execute it, a win would go far toward achieving a fifth place (or possibly better) finish in the league.
Loyola game notes:
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/loy ... 106aaa.pdfEvansville game notes:
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/loy ... a_evan.pdfTelevision: Comcast Sports Net +, ESPN 3 (
http://espn.go.com/watchespn/index) outside Chicago viewing area
Vegas odds: Evansville by 5
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