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 Post subject: Re: KENPOM
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 1:28 pm 
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We create turnovers and do pretty well on the defensive glass, but teams shoot a high FG% against us. Size might have a lot to do with it. It might not seem that way because we usually shoot it better than our opponents.

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 Post subject: Re: KENPOM
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 1:42 pm 
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Weird frustrating stat the last two seasons (I'm not sure if it contributes to defensive stats); we've ranked among the bottom 100 schools in the nation in terms of opponent free throw percentage.

-In 14-15 we ranked 71st in the nation with 67.4%

-Then last year our opponents shot 72.5% from the line, 304th best in the country.

-This year our opponents are shooting 71.7% from the line which ranks 256th. The current leader is NC Central who's opponents are shooting only 59(!!!!) from the line.

-In the MVC Drake's opponents are only hitting 65.8% at the line which is best in the MVC and 29th in the country.

Super random and overall fluke-y stat I know... but it seems like our opponents have been hitting freebies at a high rate the last two years and it turns out they have.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-baske ... 2017-01-23


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 Post subject: Re: KENPOM
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 4:53 pm 
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If we foul guards a lot more than we foul big men, I could see how our opponents' free throw percentage could be affected. A lot of teams with enough forwards might give up fouls against a good big man who doesn't shoot freebies well. Take a look at our guys---- Granic is shooting 46% and Kirby is shooting 42%. And teams aren't going to play less effective big guys who clunk free throws against us, because we have 4 guards on the court most of the time.


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 Post subject: Re: KENPOM
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 12:22 pm 
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natetheskate wrote:
You know this is so weird to me that the stats show us to be a better offensive team than a defensive team. When you watch them play they seem to play such good defense and the offense seems sporadic at best.

That's why I've never thought points allowed was a measure of defense. You can minimize points allowed just by holding onto the ball.


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 Post subject: Re: KENPOM
PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:30 pm 
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After the Bradley game we moved up to 92 in KenPom. The RPI is 117.

Team Rankings has us at 112. They have also moved us into a predicted third place finish, expecting us to go 10-8. Their predictions have us beating Drake, Indiana State, and Southern Illinois at home; going 2-1 at Indiana State, Southern Illinois, and Evansville; and losing at Missouri State, home vs. Wichita State, and at Illinois State.


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 Post subject: Re: KENPOM
PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:49 pm 
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JCT wrote:
After the Bradley game we moved up to 92 in KenPom. The RPI is 117.

Team Rankings has us at 112. They have also moved us into a predicted third place finish, expecting us to go 10-8. Their predictions have us beating Drake, Indiana State, and Southern Illinois at home; going 2-1 at Indiana State, Southern Illinois, and Evansville; and losing at Missouri State, home vs. Wichita State, and at Illinois State.


Our RPI is 3rd in the league, so we would win any potential tiebreaker for 3rd or 4th place, right? Assuming we split with Drake, of course...

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 Post subject: Re: KENPOM
PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:04 pm 
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This would be the seeding if the season ended today:

1. Illinois State
2. Wichita State
3. Drake (beat both Loyola and MSU)
4. Loyola (beat Missouri State, lost to Drake)
5. Missouri State (lost to both Loyola and Drake)
6. Northern Iowa (beat SIU)
7. Southern Illinois (lost to UNI)
8. Bradley
9. Indiana State (higher RPI than Evansville)
10. Evansville

Apart from losing a road game that we should have won, you can see now how bad the loss to Drake was.... We'd also probably be in the top 100 in RPI if we won that game like we were supposed to.


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