ToledoRambler wrote:
Northwestern’s schedule is obviously set up so the win-loss record doesn’t look as bad as it should be at the end of the season. There’s no doubt they could’ve scheduled us and had a respectable game in their non-con schedule, and chose not to. They did not want to have an additional black eye of losing to us for recruiting, when they’re already going to have to explain an abysmal season to recruits.
I don’t understand what Collins is doing here. I don’t think wins on this schedule buy him job security. Nobody in charge could be that stupid. All their non-conference schedule does is ensure extremely low attendance for their games. It doesn’t prepare them for big 10 play. It doesn’t give them a chance for an an NIT bid. It doesn’t inspire confidence that the program is trying to get better. If I’m a northwestern fan, I’m not happy with it at all.
Almost every P-5 plays 8-10 non-con home games against smaller-conference teams willing to get paid. The rest are pre-ordained major-conference challenge games (sometimes/often at neutral courts). They don't NEED to schedule good teams, because if they get lucky against a mid-level conference team at home that's having a bad night, or hit a late 3 in a close low-scoring game, they've got their Tier 1 win or maybe two. Add that to a couple of home wins against the dregs of the conference (who almost invariably also get a lucky win over a decent B16 team, and they've got an 11 or 12 seed if they can finish with 18+ wins and only two games below .500 in conference.
That's why I'd like to load up on scheduling mediocre P5 teams, because often they get lucky and knock off someone good in their conference. Teams like Boston College, Wake Forest, Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Oregon State, Stanford, Butler, Providence, St. John's, Missouri, Georgia, etc. If we got three of those teams (or similar) on the schedule every year, we'd probably win one of them, even on the road, if we're really any good. Maybe we get two if we're very good, all three if we're very good AND lucky.