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PostPosted: Mon Mar 08, 2021 2:41 pm 
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Yes, 01. In your Jerry Palm tweet example, this is an example where the two "other" Drake losses mean they're not worthy of the tournament. But if you point out that Colorado and Creighton have THREE "other" losses, they switch rationale.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 08, 2021 2:57 pm 
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Rambler88 wrote:
All of the math and analysis is great, but if you look at the brackets - we want to avoid playing one of the top 8 teams in the country the first weekend, which means I would like to be avoid being a 7-10 seed. 5-6 are great, but I would be happy with an 11, 12 or 13. 7,8,9 and 10 teams have some loving parting gifts.


Here's the odds to advance, by seeding: https://www.betfirm.com/seeds-national- ... ship-odds/


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 08, 2021 3:51 pm 
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#27 in the power 36 rankings so an 8/9 seed is very possible.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 08, 2021 5:30 pm 
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The NCAA is a monopoly and wraps themselves in their committee and a system few understand, to justify giving the big boys the benefits. Money is at stake of course and the rich get richer. They control the system.
Until there is a requirement limiting the number of non conference home games and requiring the big boys to play on the road against mid major schools they won't and so things will never change.
Monopolies only change when they are forced. to. Power is rarely given up voluntarily.
As Machiavelli said, "he who is unarmed is despised".
The only true recourse here is the courts. But no school wants to be the Curt Flood of college basketball.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 08, 2021 6:56 pm 
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Rambler88 wrote:
All of the math and analysis is great, but if you look at the brackets - we want to avoid playing one of the top 8 teams in the country the first weekend, which means I would like to be avoid being a 7-10 seed. 5-6 are great, but I would be happy with an 11, 12 or 13. 7,8,9 and 10 teams have some loving parting gifts.


I may be in the minority here (and fair enough!), but as I told my friend ahunte1, I'd be excited if we got put in the 8/9 slot. Gives us what should be a really good first round matchup. Then, if we were to prevail there, we get to take a crack at a big boy who would never schedule us. If we want to become anything remotely like a regional Gonzaga, as has been mentioned around here a time or two, there's a long way to go and we've got to learn to tangle with the best. Would we lose? Most likely, yes (about 86% chance of an L, according to my NCAA research). But every few years you do see a #1 seed go down in RD32. And even if we we are the ones who go down, just showing well in that kind of game could be a program-building moment.

Do I think the team deserves a better seed than that? Absolutely, yes. But if I were a coach in that locker room, I'd present such a situation not only as incentive, but as an opportunity.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 08, 2021 7:22 pm 
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bgilmore06 wrote:
Rambler88 wrote:
All of the math and analysis is great, but if you look at the brackets - we want to avoid playing one of the top 8 teams in the country the first weekend, which means I would like to be avoid being a 7-10 seed. 5-6 are great, but I would be happy with an 11, 12 or 13. 7,8,9 and 10 teams have some loving parting gifts.


I may be in the minority here (and fair enough!), but as I told my friend ahunte1, I'd be excited if we got put in the 8/9 slot. Gives us what should be a really good first round matchup. Then, if we were to prevail there, we get to take a crack at a big boy who would never schedule us. If we want to become anything remotely like a regional Gonzaga, as has been mentioned around here a time or two, there's a long way to go and we've got to learn to tangle with the best. Would we lose? Most likely, yes (about 86% chance of an L, according to my NCAA research). But every few years you do see a #1 seed go down in RD32. And even if we we are the ones who go down, just showing well in that kind of game could be a program-building moment.

Do I think the team deserves a better seed than that? Absolutely, yes. But if I were a coach in that locker room, I'd present such a situation not only as incentive, but as an opportunity.


This is a new way of looking at it that I had not really considered...that being said, I think I would still feel more comfortable as a 7 playing a 2 vs the potential 1 seed matchup as an 8. Almost exclusively because this year it seems as if the top 4 teams (Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan) are a decent cut above everyone else. I would feel much more comfortable playing an Iowa, Houston, Alabama, OSU, WVU, Arkansas, etc. (some of whom I think are a little overrated) vs one of the probable 1 seeds. Again, this is all fun conjecturing, as I think most of us would even be thrilled with just a first round win.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 08, 2021 8:26 pm 
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In the end, the brackets really are a crapshoot. Obviously some paths are theoretically better than others...

...but I can’t help but think back to 2018. When the brackets came out, we were put in what most considered the toughest region. #1 overall seed Virginia, a 30 win Cincinnati team as the 2 seed, SEC regular season champion Tennessee as a 3 seed, a 27 win PAC 12 champion Arizona team with the soon to be #1 NBA draft pick at the 4 seed, SEC Tournament winner Kentucky as a 5 seed, a Miami team who finished 3rd in the ACC and was ranked 22 as the 6 seed and our first round opponent. It was a murderers row of brackets.

And, well, then what happened? I mean, my God, I almost forgot how stacked that region was. And now, some people say we were a fluke because we had an easy path!


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 08, 2021 9:00 pm 
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So in 2018 Miami was ranked #22 and was a 6 seed, while in 2021 we are ranked #18 and are projected as an 8th seed?

Something isn't right here.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:29 am 
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bmh_twosix wrote:
01grad wrote:
The Arch Madness performance pushed us back into the top 10 in both KenPom and NET. You gotta think we’ll be top 20 today in the polls. If we’re not a single digit seed, it’s not just mid majors that will be pissed, but also whatever big conference school we get paired with. I wouldn’t be happy as a 1 seed either if I look up next Sunday night and see us as the 8/9 seed in my bracket. Everything, from computers to eyeballs say we should be a 5 or 6 at worst. It will be interesting.


The Athletic's newest bracket bumped us up to the second #7 seed and dropped Drake into the play-in game on the 12 line. First round match up with North Carolina, second round would be Iowa.

Teams in front of us on the 5, 6, and 7 in ascending order include:

1. BYU (7 seed)
2. Tennessee, Clemson, Colorado, Oklahoma (6 seeds)
3. Creighton, Florida State, USC, Texas Tech (5 seeds)

Unfortunately I think a 7 may be our ceiling. Would take some bad conference tournament exits from BYU and the 6 seeds to crawl up another line.



Watching this BYU/Pepperdine game. We’re better than BYU. And so is Drake.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:34 am 
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As some have mentioned the NCAA and their marketing managers....whoops slipped up I mean the selection committee......have a mysterious, moving target that hides the real goal....how do we maximize tv revenue....and maybe this plays to our benefit...I think we have become marketable,likeable and must watch tv......but we will see....or as Father Grant would say in Theology...."its a mystery my son"


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