Here's the thing... even though our metrics (KenPom, NET, BPI, BartTorvik), our tournament championship, our AP/Coaches Poll ranking, our record of success in our last tournament, the fact that we've won 17 of our last 18 (with the loss by 1 point in OT on the road) and everything else says we should have been a 6 seed, just about everyone here would have felt good/comfortable with a 7 seed.
But set that aside. Georgia Tech is a really rough 9 to be paired with-- they just won the frickin' ACC Tournament and they've won 8 in a row. They weren't even in the conversation for the tournament until a week ago. They're one of the hottest P5 programs.
And then, if we should happen to beat the ACC Tournament Champions, we will face the Big Ten Tournament Champions, the only other team from Illinois, and one of the few schools with more alumni and press coverage in our own market. And they're one of the toughest matchups for us. Can anyone deny that Michigan or Baylor is a better matchup for us? I think facing Gonzaga might be tougher, but at least if we should lose to Gonzaga we don't get overshadowed and branded a loser/also-ran in our own market and recruiting area.
Yes, if we should get to the Sweet 16 (which was my goal out of this season) by beating the ACC Tournament Champs and the Big Ten Champs who have the biggest fandom in our region, it would be miraculous-- a huge coup that would resonate powerfully. But the odds we're facing are really, really stupendously (deliberately?) high. And the downsides of losing are especially mean-spirited. I really see it as a sharp elbow to our rise as a program. The Mountain West Conference Commissioner, the Bradley VP for Intercollegiate Athletics, and the A10 Commissioner really did us no favors at ALL.
Take a look back now at that one point OT loss to Drake on the end of a road back-to-back. It let Drake into the tournament which is nice for them, and gave it gave another bid to the league. But it definitely cost us a 7 seed and possibly a 6.
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