I mean, Oklahoma lost by 25 last night, they're 4-11 in the Big 12 with only three games left, and they're on the bubble. Tells you all you need to know.

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2 down, 4 to go

I've been following this scatterplot a bit -- shows NET ranking on one axis, and KenPom on the next, then shows where the cutoff points were in the past few tournaments: https://bracketologists.com/visualizations/net-kenpom-scatter

After last night, we're back on the good side and, by this metric, would be in. So, it leads me to believe that if we win on Saturday, and make it to the MVC championship game, we would probably get an at-large bid, but certainly would be sweating it.

We absolutely have to win on Saturday. They’re not likely to give an at large to a team seeded 4th in Arch Madness, which is likely our seed if we lose to UNI. It probably won’t matter what the metrics say at that point. Even if we win Saturday, we also would absolutely need to win on Friday, as a loss against either Illinois State or Indiana State would give us a horrible resume anchor. Frankly, I won’t have even the slightest bit of comfort unless and until we win our next 3 games, and are either leading or in a tight game in the second half on Sunday in St Louis.

I'm in the camp that we have to win everything up to the Championship game - and if that last game is a loss, it has to be close.

On a side note - Seth Greenberg was talking about Michigan State's chances during halftime of the Mich. St- Iowa game. He was talking about the Spartan's good wins - and the first school he mentioned was Loyola.

One thing I have been thinking about is with the run that our seniors have had is will the committee try and find a way to get us as long as we don't end the season on an embarrassment in order to allow Lucas and company the opportunity to play in the dance one last time? We have the name recognition and people want to see Loyola so it would be good for their ratings.

If I'm interpreting Hackman's grid correctly, it seems likely to me that if we drop the UNI game we'll fall to the 4 seed. The assumption being Drake handles SIU at home and Mo St doesn't lose at Evansville. Win and face ISU B / ISU R winner, lose and we get a quarterfinal matchup with Bradley.

Yup. Given that Drake and MO State are very likely to win, there would be a three way tie for 2nd and the tiebreaker would put us as the 4-seed.

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I will say that SIU has been playing pretty well lately, so there is a chance that Drake takes an L. Not saying they’ll be underdogs, but that could be a good game.

Bottom line, win. Come out prepared and win it.