UWM Preview — 12-16-2017

Saturday, December 16, 2017 1:00 p.m.
UW Milwaukee Panther Arena, Milwaukee, Wis.

The Loyola Ramblers head 84 miles north for their final non-conference game of the regular season, against a familiar foe. The UW Milwaukee Panthers are former Horizon League conference mates who are now coached by Pat Baldwin, a key Loyola assistant coach for seven years throughout the Jim Whitesell era. It’s a dangerous game for the Ramblers—a road contest just after getting some national praise, against a pretty good team, with a coach who has intimate institutional knowledge about Loyola. That’s prime territory and timing for an upset if the Ramblers aren’t careful.

Baldwin inherited a UWM team picked to finish 8th in the Horizon League preseason poll. But the newly-minted D1 head coach managed to shock the Iowa State Cyclones the first weekend of the season for his first D1 coaching win, 74-56. Since then, UWM has knocked off Florida International, Elon, Northern Illinois, and Jacksonville. The Panthers have been one of the few bright spots in the Horizon League this season, which is languishing near the bottom (30th out of 32) in Conference RPI.

When things are going right for the Panthers, they’ll score more than 65 points and play very good defense. They held Iowa State to only 56 points and Northern Illinois to 62 in two impressive road wins. The Panthers thrive by turning tough defense into offense—19 points off turnovers against Iowa State, 10 points off turnovers and 19 second chance points against Northern Illinois. But when UWM scores fewer than 65, they’re 1-5, including one of their two exhibitions and a regular season home loss to Division II Concordia-St. Paul. They’re one of the top 75 teams in the nation defensively, allowing only 66.3 points per game on average, but scoring in bunches has been a problem.

The likely starters for Saturday are guards Brock Stull, Jeremy Johnson, and Bryce Barnes; the starting forwards are Brett Prahl and Bryce Nze. Leading scorer Brock Stull has missed the past two games—road losses to Western Illinois and Belmont—with a banged-up knee. The 6’4” junior guard out of Rockford averages 12.3 points and pulls in 4.2 boards, and provides key leadership on the court. Bryce Barnes, a 5’11” sophomore speedster out of Chicago’s Bogan Prep scores an average of 8.6 per game. Six-three sophomore Jeremy Johnson averages 6.7 per game.

Brett Prahl is a 6’9” senior forward who averages 10.3 points and 5.9 rebounds while leading the team in field goal percentage. Prahl doesn’t take a lot of shots, but he’s sure-handed when he does. Bryce Nze is a 6’7” 230-pound sophomore forward who leads the team in rebounding (7.9 per game) while chipping in 9.6 points on average. Both of UWM’s inside guys play a lot of minutes (nearly 30 per game), can block shots (each averages about 1.0 per game), and really excel at offensive rebounding. Thanks in large part to their offensive glass work, UWM has taken 37 more field goal attempts than their opponents.

The top Panthers off the bench are 6’0” guard Jeremiah Bell, 6’1 guard August Haas, 6’5” freshman guard Carson Warren-Newsome, and 6’8” junior forward Vance Johnson. Bell likes to drive to the basket through traffic, and averages 11.4 points per game. Bell shoots just under 40% from the field, but has taken the most field goal attempts on the team. August Haas is a really impressive playmaker who likes to drive and dish. He leads the team in assists by far, while averaging 5.7 points per game. Haas was a starter last year against the Ramblers, but has been coming off the bench lately. Warren-Newsome averages 4.4 points, and Johnson spells the bigs for about 11-15 minutes per game, averaging 2.4 points and 3.1 boards.

UWM is one of the worst teams in the nation in both shooting and defending the three-point shot. I haven’t run the numbers, but they likely have the largest disparity in the nation on the three-point shot. UWM is 340th out of 351 teams in defending against the three, allowing 41.2%. And they are 321st in three-point field goal percentage, at 29.7%. Despite taking 18 more threes than their opponents, the other guys have made 21 more—yikes!

Last year the Ramblers beat UWM 72-56, with Milton Doyle (22 points) and Aundre Jackson (21) leading the way. Loyola was shorthanded in that game, with Bruno Skokna starting in place of injured Donte Ingram. The Panthers were led by Cody Wichman (since graduated) who had 13 points, and Brock Stull added 11.

Coaching UW Milwaukee is a pretty good gig. Baldwin takes over for LaVall Jordan, who was hired by his alma mater Butler after only one season at the helm of UWM. Jordan took over for Rob Jeter, who was fired after accumulating 184 wins, 2 NCAA Tournament appearances, 1 NIT and 1 CBI in 11 seasons. The two coaches before Jeter, Bruce Pearl and Bo Ryan, both left Milwaukee for multi-million dollar salaries, and in Ryan’s case, the College Basketball Hall of Fame.

It’s going to be Star Wars Day at the UW Milwaukee Panther Arena, the former MECCA. The old Milwaukee Bucks with Oscar Robertson and Lew Alcindor used to play there on an amazing floor designed by artist Robert Indiana. Loyola had some epic battles with Marquette there in the late 50s and early 60s, when Al McGuire piloted the Warriors to great seasons in front of packed houses. Rambler fans should try to make the trip to Milwaukee to root on the team in this crucial game (UWM sits at 117 in the RPI, making this a Group 2 level game), and try to appreciate the history of the building in between screaming their heads off for the Ramblers.

Loyola game notes: http://www.loyolaramblers.com/documents/2017/12/14//Milwaukee_Notes.pdf?id=4764

UWM game notes: http://mkepanthers.com/documents/2017/12/14/MBB_1718_Notes_12_LUC.pdf

TV/Streaming video: Fox Sports Wisconsin / https://www.foxsportsgo.com/

Audio: 1130 WISN / https://www.iheart.com/live/1130-wisn-4245/?autoplay=true&pname=1176&campid=play_bar&cid=main.html

Stats: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/statmonitr/?id=191132

Vegas odds: Pending