Wednesday, February 25, 2015 7:00 p.m.
Knapp Arena, Des Moines, IA
Back on Jan. 14, when Loyola defeated Drake in Chicago 50-47, about the only surprise was that Drake (3-14, 0-5 MVC) made the game so close. But it was the first full game Milton Doyle played with his fractured ankle, and it was Drake’s coming out party for Gary Ricks, Jr. Ricks, a 6’2” senior guard, was demoted to the bench for the Loyola game, but poured in a season-high 24 points for the Bulldogs, including 7-14 on three pointers. The following game, Ricks was returned to Drake’s starting lineup and scored 23 in a victory over Indiana State. The Bulldogs have gone 6-5 in conference since their loss at Loyola, while the Ramblers have limped through a 3-8 stretch. On Wednesday night, the two teams meet in Des Moines, tied at 6-10 in conference, with the winner locking down the all-important sixth seed in conference.
Before the light-a-fire-under-his-butt demotion of Ricks against Loyola, Drake was a different team. They forced the ball inside much more, trying to take advantage of their size with 7’0” sophomore center Jacob Enevold and his two 6’6” senior frontcourt partners, Trevor Berkley and Chris Caird.
Forcing the ball inside led to ungodly numbers of turnovers for the Bulldogs in the early going. But including and since the Loyola game, the Bulldogs shoot much more from behind the arc, and have better success at doing it. In the 16 games before playing Loyola, Drake averaged 14.8 three point attempts per game, but against Loyola and afterwards they average 17.0—and that is with fewer overall field goal attempts in lower-scoring conference games. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs were connecting on only 35.1% of their three-balls before playing Loyola, and an astounding 48.8% since. They’ve moved from below average in three-point accuracy to top of the league in conference play, better than even Northern Iowa or Indiana State. In four of Drake’s six conference victories, half or more of their made field goals came from behind the arc.
Meanwhile, Enevold has thrived in Drake’s revised offensive approach, greatly reducing the number of fouls accrued, and staying on the court for more minutes per game. He still gets points, but his baskets are more opportunistic than forced. Both Berkley and (especially) Caird are taking a higher percentage of their shots away from the basket. At 6’6”, Caird connects on 42% of his threes on the season, and is 10 for 18 (55.6%) in his last seven games—creating mismatch problems for perimeter defenses.
As Drake’s leading three point shooter goes, so does the team. The Bulldogs are 6-1 in conference play when Ricks scores 12 points or more (the game at Loyola being the only exception), and 0-9 when he scores 11 or fewer. When Drake connects on seven or more three-pointers as a team, they’re 6-2 in conference play, but 0-8 in games with six or fewer. And perhaps most dramatically, in Drake’s six conference wins they average 56.2% shooting behind the arc (63 of 112); in their 10 losses, they average 30.9% (47 of 152). The Bulldogs have five players who shoot 40% or better on threes (Ricks, Caird, Berkley, Arogundade, and Rivers) and five players (Timmer, Ricks, Arogundade, Daniels, and Caird) who have hit 12 or more threes on the season.
In the tale of the tape between the two teams, they’re closely matched in conference play with a few exceptions. Drake is tops in the league (75.5%) in free throw percentage (led by Reed Timmer’s 84% on frequent opportunities), while Loyola is dead last at 63% as a team. The Ramblers are significantly better in three-point defense than the Bulldogs, who are last in the league-- allowing nearly 40% of opposing threes to fall. Both teams generally struggle on offense and maintain a slow tempo to work for better shots, but Loyola has an advantage with a tighter defense. And as bad as the Ramblers have been in rebounding this season, the Bulldogs may be even worse at securing offensive rebounds as Enevold is often left on his own in the paint while Caird and Berkley now stray farther from the basket on offense.
In this closely matched battle, with so much on the line (a Thursday night game in St. Louis and a potential postseason tournament appearance for the Ramblers), whichever team executes their game plan, takes advantage of opportunities, and gets two or three more fortunate calls will likely win. It may come down to a fortuitous basket or two, a careless turnover, a late dagger shot, or even a sixth lucky or unlucky rim bounce on a free throw. But most likely, it will probably boil down to which team is better at taking, shooting, preventing, guarding, or disrupting three point shots. Drake has the home court advantage and the momentum coming off a 35-point home win over Missouri State on Sunday; Loyola has a slight majority of the statistical comparisons and a little more riding on the outcome.
Loyola game notes:
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/loy ... 224aaa.pdfDrake game notes:
http://www.godrakebulldogs.com/pdf9/3221530.pdfTV/Streaming video/Audio: Bulldog Vision (pay)
http://www.godrakebulldogs.com/mediaPor ... M_ID=15700 Audio:
http://www.loyolaramblers.com/collegesportslive/ Vegas odds: Drake by 1
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