"Good" teams do not lose at home to a Bradley team whose only other win on the year was by one point on their home court to Ball State. They don't lose at home to Cleveland State in a wholesale rebuilding year, or lose at home to a 7-13 Missouri State team in a vital conference game. Good teams don't lose by 24 at New Mexico, or look as thoroughly outclassed as we did against Notre Dame and Wichita State. A "good" team might lose those games, but not getting blown out of the building against mostly bench players.
Say what you will about being really talented, not "gelling," etc. Last year we had some players who served as "tent poles" to stay in games-- both Christian Thomas and Joe Crisman had a fierce work ethic and senior experience. They kept the team from sinking into funks when shots didn't fall, kept the guys from making silly mistakes to further compound things, and kept the rest of the team from slacking off or straying from the game plan. Last year's team was athletically competent, like this year's team. The players were nothing really spectacular physically or athletically, but they were experienced hard workers that were disciplined at staying with the game plan. That game plan was new then-- using help defense, controlling tempo, working very hard for good, high-percentage shots, etc. It got us a lot of wins over less disciplined and hard working teams (the win at Evansville, the wins over the CBI teams, the win at Kent State), and got us some wins against teams we managed to play at the right time (Boise State with their two big injuries, Indiana State in St. Louis when we had Doyle playing). Otherwise, if you look at what we did last year, we got swept by WSU, UNI, and ISUr-- the three teams in the NCAA/NIT. We had a losing conference record in a league where more than half the teams had a losing record overall, and four teams won 11 games or less on the year-- we only had one win, by one point, against a fellow MVC team with a winning record on the season.
Our style and tendencies are less novel and more well-known this year-- we aren't very good against a zone or a good full court press. We're going to pass a lot before we get a shot, and if you really work on denying the inside game it ties us in offensive knots for large chunks of the game. We don't have much leadership, we let down when we get a lead, and we make a lot of lazy mistakes-- just like we did a lot BEFORE last year. We've been beaten twice this year by coaches who knew us from the HL (Waters at CSU and Wardle at Bradley), even though they're both coaching horrible rebuilding teams.
I think we probably could have won the games against Cleveland State, Bradley, and Missouri State with better effort and discipline. I thought the effort, game plan, and attention to detail was pretty solid in the 2-point loss to Illinois State-- we just lost a close game to a pretty good team on the road. The Creighton game shows what our ceiling is with solid execution and effort. The two losses in Alaska both came from giant 2nd half meltdowns after we were playing pretty well earlier in the game, so I don't really know what to attribute it to.
If we worked harder and had more discipline this year, it's a pretty easy claim to say we could be 11-9 overall and 4-5 in conference (wins over CSU, Bradley, and MSU-- a total of 7 points deciding those games). If we were at that point, I'd like our chances to avoid Thursday. But the hole is too deep now. Last year we avoided the let-downs (except maybe the Tulane game), and that was really all we needed to escape Thursday. This year we let up, and it bit us again and again. That's an issue of culture, motivation, and (probably) attendance/fan support.
|