SubGod22 wrote:
Most aren't sexy names, but some struggle to schedule and others would take buy games from just about anyone. All would be considered good wins. Others, outside the top 100 but inside to top 150 can help strengthen a schedule even if they're not tallied as good wins, they also aren't considered bad losses.
James Madison (CAA) 103
Arlington (Belt) 105
Northeastern (CAA) 109
Eastern Michigan (MAC) 112
Green Bay (Horizon) 114
Oakland (Horizon) 117
La Tech (CUSA) 121
Kent State (MAC) 124
North Dakota State (Summit) 125
Marshall (CUSA) 126
Morehead State (OVC) 127
Tenn Tech (OVC) 134
Charleston (CAA) 135
NIU (MAC) 136
ODU (CAA) 140
Omaha (Summit) 143
Wright State (Horizon) 146
Tenn. State (OVC) 148
Towson (CAA) 150
Obviously there are no guarantees who these teams will be, but a little research into what teams did, who they return, is the coach returning and how long has he been there, and such things you can make some educated guesses as to who will have a decent year. Of course, you could play the same game with a number of other mid/lower conferences and help put yourself in position for at large talks or at least an NIT invite if you have some success out of conference and in.
We scheduled UIC for a four-year contract when we left the HL. At that time, they were coming off a 17-16 season with a 177 RPI and had improved each year under coach Howard Moore. Yet the moment we left the league, they went into the toilet-- they've been in the 300s each year since. I really do honestly think that as a program, institutionally, they have little long term or sustaining motivation if they aren't trying to defeat Loyola.
We had Tennessee Tech for the two years they were horrible in a long streak of many years being a solid team in the 100s. Same with Northern Illinois. Same with Tulane, etc. Last year we lucked out with a win over a Boise State team that unexpectedly had an RPI in the 40s... And if you're looking at these metrics, there's no better team to show how fickle and unpredictable it all is from year to year than LOYOLA.... We were 183 in 2012-13, 292 in 2013-14, 87 in 2014-15, and 237 in 2015-16.
As a team, I KNOW that we were better than 237 this year. We beat Creighton and UNI (twice). We won a lot of games on the road for a team well below the RPI Mendoza line. We are currently 182 in Pomeroy's ranking, 187 in the BPI, and 209 in the NPI-- which is closer to where I think we fit in as a team this year considering the whole season. I would put us around 170... in other words, we WAAAYYY underperformed in the RPI compared to our actual ability.