I haven't been following their recruiting under the new coach, but last year was a disaster for them, and they lose a bonafide NBA lottery pick. So I don't think they'll turn it around overnight. Its close between them and Boise, but I think it'll depend on when we get NC State. If we play them in the first week or two, we might get an eminently beatable wolf pack team on its heels trying to figure out a new coach. If we get them in mid December like Mississippi state a few years ago, they might have their sea legs under them.

Depending on how they schedule, UIC could be another really solid game for us. They could potentially win the Horizon this year with their talent. I'm not RPI wiz, but if i had to guess they could finish around the top 100 (for reference Valpo finished 78, Northern Kentucky finished 85, Oakland 102 last season).

Good point. UIC will be tough next year. Hoping we get Northwestern (or DePaul) as part of the opening of the new arena.

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We have to be REALLY CAREFUL in scheduling this season. Our team is loaded with seniors at the wing and in the backcourt, but we have newcomers at the center and rim protector position (probably lots of fouls against teams that are deep up front). I am also a bit concerned about the lack of consistency in three point shooting.

So if we have open dates on our schedule, we have to keep this in mind. And I would rather beat a struggling D1 team at home that plays in a good league than waste a game with a Non-D1 team. And by "good league," I mean a league that has leveraged their RPI position-- like the Colonial (James Madison, Hofstra, Delaware), Sunbelt, and MAC. Odds are that below average teams in these leagues will beat a good team in their league at home, which factors into RPI. These wins have higher residual effects on the echo of the RPI (opponents' opponents') than teams from leagues where none of the teams are competitive (MEAC, SWAC, Northeast, Southland, etc.).

There are other incentives that could be offered to lure teams to Chicago than just offering a guarantee game. If you offer a team free hotel rooms (making a deal with a local hotel), or offer meals (making a trade with a local nice restaurant), or some other sweetener, maybe you can get a team like mid-level A-10 teams to agree to a home and home series.

My goal at the outset of this season-- not knowing how we'll all fare without WSU and with Valpo having a transition year-- would be having an NIT at large bid in the back pocket if we don't win the league title or tournament. That basically means 21-22 wins overall, 12-13 wins in the league, and an RPI better than 70.

In order to win an NCAA at large, we'd have to have an RPI better than 42 (in my rough estimation) plus a quality win, which NC State would likely satisfy unless they're unable to get 15-17 wins. A win in Boise is very unlikely, but that, together with an NC State win and an RPI better than 38 or so, might do it.

13 non con games. Likely only three openings. I imagine one will be a non D1. Hope to fill the other two with a road Power 5 game and a home game vs an A10 team.

1. @ Boise State
2. UIC
3. Toledo
4. @ Milwaukee
5. @ Savannah Tourney
6. @ Savannah Tourney
7. Home Savannah Tourney
8. Home Savannah Tourney
9. NC State
10. @ UMKC
11.
12.
13.

JCT, worried about 3 point shooting...Care to explain? Just curious!

The way I see it we have 3 good options in Ingram, Richardson, and Custer (though I'll admit Custer varied from Red hot to ice cold at times last year)

I don't know the Milwaukee deal if that was a guarantee or a Home and home, but I'll trust your word on it. The big variable is Savannah and whether we get worthy competition in that tournament.

As for those remaining 3 games, I would schedule at least 1/maybe 2 guarantee games (TCU is a great home game for Aundre; if not them, Baylor is an hour away from Kennedale, TX or if Tyson Smith stays maybe @ Maryland), maybe a home and home with an A-10 school, and one cupcake game against a lower D1 school with an RPI of 300+.

I feel that unfortunately history says its 2 non D1 teams, and a low major out of the Summit or the WAC or a historically black school in the MEAC or the SWAC. I wouldn't be surprised with this outcome, but still super pissed about it.

An aside, I understand the idea that we need to have some easier games in the conference, but how much difference does the drop in RPI make to schedule a D1 team with an RPI in the 300s than a D3/NAIA team like Eureka and IU Northwest? Would it be offset by a really competitive guarantee game? Maybe I'm old school and take too much heart in the adage my mom would tell me: "you are who you associate with." If I were a coach though, I wouldn't schedule a single non D1 team unless I thought it best for the program to be D2 or D3.

The two items that concern me are what you mentioned-- Custer being hot and cold, and our sometimes over-dependence on threes-- and that Doyle got players open for three by penetrating and dishing.

Wright State was a guarantee game. Per the UWM message board Loyola plays at UWM this season.

I would fill the last three as follows:

@ Power 5 school, $$$$ and TV exposure
home and home with: A10 school (Dayton would be ideal)
home and home v.s. WCC school or NIU, Western Michigan, or Detroit

but in all reality it will be:
home v.s non D1
home v.s low D1
Another HL game or MAC school

We all want to see good games at home...but I think it is problematic. Dayton is a good example. If they see that we average under 2000 , it will not be a televised game, there will be little press unless they lose....what is their incentive to play here...? I guess there are three things we could offer.....maybe two games at their place in return,a chance for some of their Chicago kids to come home and play before family and friends and also for Chicago kids that they are recruiting to see their potential team. This might be the kind of game where LU would have to guarantee money and it does not seem like we are in a position to do so. At least that is how I read it.. I guess my point is that it is not that LU does not want to schedule good games it is just that it is difficult......IUPUI played a ton of good teams last year. They played 4 big ten teams, all on the road and 3 MAC schools two of which were on the road. They lost them all and ended their non-con home schedule with Urbana and Marian with an opener against St. Joes of Renseler Indiana which is no longer a school. It is not easy for LU in its current position. Just curious if people would like us to schedule like IUPUI did ? Lots of good teams but on the road?