Saturday, January 11, 2014, 7:00 p.m.
Redbird Arena, Normal, Ill.
Illinois State was essentially a blank slate coming into the season, with a lot of talent on paper but only two players on the roster who had seen marginal playing time at the DI level. The team and the culture is in the process of being remade to the specifications of second year head coach Dan Muller.
Predictably, the Redbirds started the season slowly, with a blowout loss at VCU, a home loss to Drexel, nearly blowing a big lead at Northwestern, a home loss to Manhattan, and a neutral court loss to Vermont. But since then, the Muller architecture project has shown a lot of promise, going 7-3 overall with somewhat impressive wins at home against Dayton, DePaul, and Southern Illinois (by 18 points). The Redbirds are still iffy on the road, having lost at Oakland, Missouri State, and by 19 points at Wichita State. But at home, the new-look Birds have won five in a row.
The Birds usually go nine deep, and start four guards between 5'10" and 6'4", and a 6'10" freshman center. They're led in scoring by 6'1" junior guard Daishon Knight (13.6 ppg), a juco transfer. Sophomore guard Zach Lofton (another juco) averages 11.5 ppg, redshirt junior guard Bobby Hunter (standing only 5'10", but weighing in at 190) averages 10.1. Center Reggie Lynch doesn't score a lot (6.7 ppg in 16.3 minutes), but when he takes a shot he connects on 62%, and his length keeps the opposition honest in the paint-- he has 35 blocks.
Illinois State likes to play a fast-paced game. They look to run, they shoot pretty quick in the shot clock, they like to use their quickness to drive to the basket, and they take a whole lot of threes in transition. If they can't get a quick spot-up three, they make quick passes and look for opportunities to drive to the basket, hoping for tip-ins or second chances. In terms of tempo, the Birds play the 45th fastest pace in college hoops, far faster than the next team in the league (Evansville at 125th). ISUr's frenetic pace is reflected in their rebounding numbers: they're 2nd in the MVC in rebounding offense, and last in the MVC in rebounding defense. And I'll give you one guess who plays the most deliberate tempo in the league by far... Loyola ranks 339th in tempo out of 351 DI teams, and is last in the league in rebounding offense-- but the Ramblers rank second in rebounding defense.
Fundamentally, the game will probably come down to which team is able to control the tempo. If the Birds connect on their transition spot up threes, this game could get ugly. Loyola is going to need to take care of the ball, control the tempo, move well without the rock, and wear down ISU by making them play long defensive stretches. In transition, the Ramblers are going to have to force the Birds into half court offense and anticipate their superior quickness.
UPDATES: Spelling of Muller's last name corrected.
Redbirdfan.net message board has a thread about what Porter Moser's reception will be on his return to Redbird Arena.
http://www.redbirdfan.net/forum/viewtop ... f=6&t=5832Also, ISUr is a 7.5 point favorite in Vegas.