Sunday, March 21, 2021 11:10 a.m.
Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Ind.
After knocking off the ACC Tournament Champion Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 71-60 in their first round game, the eighth-seeded Ramblers will face Big Ten Tournament Champion Illinois on Sunday. The top seeded Illini manhandled Drexel 78-49 in their first round game, getting low-pressure court time for 14 players. Kofi Cockburn led all scorers with 18 points in 20 minutes; Ayo Dosunmu added 17 points, 11 rebounds, six assists, and three steals.
Loyola may have benefitted from facing Georgia Tech without the ACC Player of the Year Moses Wright, who sat out the game due to a positive Covid test. Despite being shorthanded, the Yellow Jackets played with fierce intensity, and Loyola took some time to get going. The Ramblers trailed by 10 early in the game and couldn't decipher the Georgia Tech 1-3-1 zone in the opening minutes. But after hitting some shots behind the arc and trying different combinations, Loyola surged to a lead by halftime. Another GT surge in the middle of the 2nd half gave Tech a 43-40 lead with 11:55 to play, but the Ramblers remained cool and closed out the game with some clutch shots and lockdown defense.
When the brackets were released on Selection Sunday, most college basketball fans in Illinois zeroed in on the potential second round matchup between the Midwest Regional's top seed, Illinois, and 8th seeded Loyola. A lot of bracketology models had Loyola as an 8 seed, but putting the Ramblers in the same region with a streaking Illinois on the 1 seed was definitely a conscious committee decision.
Illinois is everything everyone keeps saying about them, a red-hot team from the consensus best conference in college basketball, with two superstar players (Dosunmu and Cockburn) and another on the verge (freshman point guard Andre Curbelo). Illinois finished last year at 21-10 overall, 13-7 in the Big Ten (4th place). Most bracketologists had the Illini slated for a 7 seed last year before the pandemic shut down the Big Ten Conference Tournament. Illinois was ranked in the top three in most preseason Big Ten previews, but Brad Underwood's bunch grew and improved steadily over the season while teams like Wisconsin and Michigan faded. Their surge at the end of the regular season and conference tournament championship earned Illinois a #1 regional seeding, #2 AP Poll ranking, and AP All-American honorees on the first team (Dosunmu) and second team (Cockburn).
In his fourth year at the helm, Coach Underwood is making his first appearance in the tournament after four straight appearances from 2014-17 with Stephen F. Austin and Oklahoma State. This is the first trip to the Dance for Illinois since 2013.
The Illini starting five consists of 6'2" senior guard Trent Frazier, 6'5" junior guard Ayo Dosunmu, 6'3" freshman guard Adam Miller, 6'6" junior guard/forward Jacob Grandison, and 7'0" sophomore center Kofi Cockburn. In tight/important games, the Illini go eight players deep, with 6'1" freshman guard Andre Curbelo, 6'3" senior guard De'Monte Williams, and 6'9" junior forward Giorgi Bezhanishvili coming off the bench.
Dosunmu is the extremely active, always moving, heart and soul of the team. He averages 20.7 points per game, 6.3 rebounds, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.1 steals. Frazier is another great passer who averages 10.4 points, leads the team in made threes while shooting 37.2%, leads the team in steals, can make a back-breaking mid-range jumper, and dishes 2.7 assists per game. Miller is another three-point threat averaging 8.2 points. Grandison joined the starting lineup about halfway into the season, but only plays 15 minutes per game and averages 4.6 points per game. Cockburn, just visiting Champaign for two years before his NBA career begins next October, averages 17.6 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks per game. Cockburn's 7-foot, 285-pound body isn't lanky, chunky, or oddly proportioned-- he plays like a 6'7" athletic power forward enlarged to dominant center size.
The defining aspect of Illinois' game is constant movement on the offensive end, and quickness. Early in the season the Illini looked like they were playing way too fast for their own good. In the first 14 games of the season, they averaged 13.1 turnovers and 18.1 fouls per game while compiling a 9-5 record. They've cut the miscues and fouls to 12.5 and 17.8 over the past 15 games (even against tougher conference opposition) leading up to the tournament, going 14-1 in that span. Five games into the season they were 24th in KenPom; over the last 15 games before the tournament, they moved from #10 to #3. (They're #2 now, after their dominating win over Drexel).
The Ramblers also moved up in KenPom after their first round win, but not how one might think. Ohio State dropped below the Ramblers, now #8. The interesting thing is the Loyola offense moved from #49 to #37 after the Georgia Tech game, while the defense dropped from #1 to #3. Illinois is sitting at #8 on offense and #4 on defense.
It will probably take a number of extraordinary circumstances for the Ramblers to get past red-hot, streaking Illinois. Getting either Kofi Cockburn or Ayo Dosunmu into foul trouble would probably be a must. Dosunmu hasn't been in foul trouble (4 or more) since early February, but in games where he racks up 4+, Illinois is 3-2. Cockburn gets into foul trouble often, but it doesn't affect the team as much as Dosunmu. When they're BOTH in foul trouble, that's when things go sideways, like the losses to Baylor and Missouri in December.
Illinois hasn't won any games while scoring less than 66 points, and they average 75 points per game in their losses. They like to speed the pace, and the Ramblers will need to slow it to a grind to compete. Controlling the tempo won't be easy, but it will be essential. The Illini often play like the speed and quickness of the attack are more important than shot selection, probably because they have amazing, NBA-level rebounders like Cockburn and Dosunmu to offer second chances. When Curbelo is in the game, the movement can be dizzying while he weaves through traffic.
Loyola will have to have one of their best defensive games of the year. They will have to deny passes to Cockburn, force Illinois into lower percentage shots, and rebound like they did against Georgia Tech. They'll need to keep the score in the low 30s at halftime and likely no more than 70 for the game. The threes will have to fall well enough to create some space in the paint. And a little luck wouldn't hurt.
Loyola Game Notes: https://loyolaramblers.com/documents/20 ... _21_21.pdfIllinois Game Notes: https://fightingillini.com/news/2021/3/ ... icago.aspxTV/Streaming video: CBS, March Madness Live
https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/watchRadio/Streaming audio: WLUW
https://wluw.org/tag/stream/Live stats: https://www.ncaa.com/scoreboard/basketball-men/d1Vegas Odds: Illinois by 6
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