Saturday, January 22, 2022 2:30 p.m.
Gentile Arena, Chicago, Ill.

The #22 Loyola Ramblers face their stiffest conference competition thus far on the season when the Missouri State Bears visit Gentile Arena on Saturday afternoon. MSU comes to Chicago with a 63 ranking in KenPom and a 70 in the NCAA's NET rankings, both tops in the MVC after Loyola's 21 and 19 in those two rankings.

Missouri State was picked to finish fourth in the MVC this season, behind Drake, Loyola and UNI. But it's the Bears that have shaken off a bad 4-4 start to surge to 2nd place in the Valley. MSU has won 10 of their last 12 games-- including three of the four road games in that span-- to sit at 14-6 overall and 5-2 in MVC play entering Saturday's game.

The Bears feature a powerful offense, leading the conference in average points per game and free throw percentage. MSU ranks second in the conference in scoring margin (behind Loyola), field goal percentage (behind Loyola), and three-point field goal percentage (behind Loyola). Coach Dana Ford's crew is also a very strong rebounding team and has a field goal defense ranking third in the conference (behind league leader Bradley and Loyola) and a three point defense ranking third (behind Loyola and league leader SIU).

MSU's dynamic duo of Isiaih Mosley and Gaige Prim are back again this year, this time with more consistent help from their supporting cast and two new faces via the transfer portal. Mosely is averaging 20.2 points (including 33 ppg in his last four games), good for 2nd in the league. Prim is pulling down 8.2 rebounds per game, statistically tied for the league lead. And many Bears players (notably Prim) are looking stronger and better conditioned than in years past.

The Bears are likely to start 6'9" senior forward Gaige Prim (13.9 ppg, 8.2 rpg), 6'5" junior guard Isiaih Mosley (20.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg),6'4" junior Ja'Monta Black (10.6 ppg, 56 made threes), 6'8" guard/forward Donovan Clay (8.0 ppg, 6.3 rpg), and 6'1" sophomore Lu'Cye Patterson (6.8 ppg, 2.4 apg). The main players off the bench are IUPUI transfer and three-point specialist Jaylen Minnett, Isaac Haney, Keaton Hervey, Nic Tata, and Dawson Carper. A familiar contributor from last season, DeMarcus Sharp, has been battling a foot injury that has moved Patterson into the starting lineup into a defacto point guard role.

Mosley has been fantastic recently after some lackluster play early in the year. Against BYU, Coach Ford sent Mosley to the pine for most of the first half after BYU took an early lead, and was scoreless for the game. Since then, he's been super-- averaging 23.0 ppg and shooting 55.7% from the field. That's when MSU began their surge to 2nd place. But a great Mosley performance isn't necessary for MSU to get the W. He had 43 points in an 85-84 home loss to UNI and scored 21 against St. Mary's, but scored only 7 in a big win over Drake and 11 in their win at Bradley. Limiting Prim, Black, and Clay from large scoring outbursts seems to be a better path to beating the Bears.

Limiting MSU's offense is really hard, because they have so many weapons. The Bears have three players who have hit 40 or more threes. Grad senior Jaylen Minnett has 333 career made three-pointers coming into this game; for perspective, that's 71 more than the Loyola all-time career record. Ja'Monta Black leads the MVC in made three pointers this season with 56, and it's only 2/3 of the way through January. The Bears are also the best free-throw shooting team in the MVC with 78.9% as a team; Mosley leads the league with 91.4% shooting, and has the seventh most free throw attempts in the league. Haney, Clay, Minnett, and Black all shoot over 80% on free throws, and Prim isn't far behind at 78%.

Loyola probably needs to focus on keeping Mosley to an average game while completely shutting down offense from two other key players. Controlling the tempo, upsetting MSU's offensive rhythm, and getting some foul calls on key players will be important. Guarding hard two feet behind the arc, and getting the longer rebounds will have to be an emphasis.

The Ramblers AP ranking, home winning streak, and conference home winning streak are all on the line. A win would also protect a fragile at-large bid possibility, and a nice lead in the conference standings.

Loyola game notes: https://loyolaramblers.com/documents/20 ... _22_22.pdf

Missouri State game notes: https://missouristatebears.com/document ... tes_21.pdf

TV/Streaming video: CBS Sports Net https://www.cbssports.com/cbs-sports-network/

Radio/Streaming audio: https://loyolaramblers.com/watch/?Live=100&type=Live

Live stats: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/statmonitr/?id=369447

Vegas odds: Loyola by 7

The people who set point spreads should be reading JCT previews. This game is a toss-up, which makes Missouri State an easy pick at +7. That's why I don't gamble.

The previews are great because they give insight on our opponents. But one could write a preview that makes us sound even scarier. I say this with certainty because we're better than them on both sides of the ball (much better defensively). And that's why we are favored by 7. Kenpom has us by 8. Warren Nolan has us by 8. Doesn't mean we're going to win, but the game is certainly not a toss up.

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JCT likes to inject an element of drama in his previews. He does this by building up our opponents and highlighting all the obstacles the Ramblers have to overcome to achieve victory.

It makes for compelling reading, but when it comes to predicting who wins I would rely on the hard-number Vegas guys over rhetorical devices.

again thanks Coach....put me in, Im ready to play. Great preview....
1. I have seen MSU has underachievers in the past. with poor coaching...what has changed? Did they add an assistant coach?
2. How will we defend Prim? Can Knight get the job done? Can we get him in foul trouble? will we need all 4 centers?
3. Our history has been to shut down the other teams top scorer...and make someone esle beat us...Looks like MSU can do that if we just focus on Mosley......
4. Seems like we are going to need everyone on board

I think home court will need to play a big role today. Gentile needs to be LOUD, and I think if that happens it’ll give our guys a huge boost. Students are back for the first time in over a month.

This is one of the better offenses in the country (#32 in offensive efficiency on KenPom). They have so many weapons as pointed out in the preview--serious 3 point threats, a dynamic scorer who can get points anywhere and a powerful center with skill. I think Lucas and company can slow down their guards and wings, but I am not sure how we contain Prim. He is going to get his...so I think we need to contain Mosley and the others, and then try to get Prim in foul trouble.

If our offense looks like it did vs Valpo & Bradley, we could be in a bit of trouble. I am hopeful the sold-out Gentile + having the student section back will give this team a jolt of energy. This is going to be an awesome college basketball atmosphere with two of the top teams in conference battling it out. Looking forward to it.

My 2 big worries for this game: a bad start and Primm. I don't think we can come back from double digits in the 2nd half against this team. Prim worries me from just being a taller physical big. Don't know if we have the muscle to stop him.

Agree with all that has been said. This game really comes down to whether we can guard 1v1 down low. As soon as we have to send a double to their bigs, their shooters will have wide open looks all game. I don't expect us to completely shut down Prim, but if our bigs can do a good enough job defending to avoid needing a double, the rest of the D can focus on their assignments and shut them down.

Primm is good, no question, but we’ve faced some really good bigs this year. Namely USF, Michigan State, and of course Jabari Smith…a likely #1 draft pick.

It’s going to be a tough matchup, but I’m confident we’ll have a solid gameplan