Since word first leaked out in April that Loyola would join the Missouri Valley Conference, most of the speculation on whether Loyola “belonged” in the new conference naturally focused on how the Ramblers would adapt to the new league in men’s basketball.
Thus far, Loyola’s fall sports teams have passed the test with sometimes flying colors. The Ramblers finished third in women’s soccer before being eliminated in the conference tournament on penalty kicks. Loyola placed second in men’s cross country, fourth in women’s cross country, and won a major golf tournament over the majority of conference foes. Men’s soccer currently stands in fourth place, and women’s volleyball holds seventh place in a very competitive league.
Yet everyone knows that men’s basketball, by a wider margin than most non-football conferences, is the test by which performance is most heavily judged.
The 2013-14 Loyola men’s basketball team enters the Valley on the heels of a mercurial 15-16 season under second-year head coach Porter Moser, but slumped in the second half of the season under the injury bug, leading to a 5-11 Horizon League mark. There are plenty of arguments on both sides of the issue as to whether Loyola’s 2012-13 season was a positive or a negative outcome, and opinions serve as something of a Rorschach test on the state of Loyola athletics.
Either way, Loyola enters the 2013-14 campaign in the MVC with a vastly different look. Gone are three of its top five players in minutes and scoring: forwards Ben Avercamp and Jordan Hicks, and guard Cully Payne. They’ll be replaced by several promising newcomers (Kansas transfer Milton Doyle, freshman Jordan Pickett, JUCO sophomore Cody Johnson, and Northern Illinois transfer Tony Nixon) and two sophomore forwards that will be called upon for significant minutes (Nick Osborne and Matt O’Leary) . Talented sophomore point guard Jeff White will also take over a more prominent leadership role.
Beyond the additional minutes and important roles that are handed over to returning sophomores, junior small forward Christian Thomas and shooting guard Joe Crisman will be expected to shoulder heavier minutes and more consistent scoring responsibilities. Sophomore three-point specialist Devon Turk and junior walk on point guard London Dokubo will be expected to at least replicate their contributions from last year.
Meanwhile, the Missouri Valley also has a much different look this year. Perennial favorite Creighton has departed for the new Big East, leaving powerful Wichita State as the obvious and heavy favorite. Indiana State returns all of its roster from a very competitive season, and Northern Iowa plays a singular style that all but guarantees a finish in the top echelon of the league. But beyond that—from fourth place to tenth– the Valley is more unpredictable and wide open than most anyone can remember.
There are new or second-year coaches (Drake, Illinois State), an almost entirely turned over roster (Illinois State), a new member (Loyola), and veteran league coaches looking to remake their squads (Southern Illinois, Loyola). Loyola has an entirely new assistant coaching staff, and begins the season with injury question marks over Milton Doyle, Tanner Williams, and Tony Nixon. Missouri State and Evansville will have to prove whether they can rebuild. Bradley seems to have a lot of raw talent, but will be relying heavily on one truly exceptional player, Walt Lemon Jr.
Much has been made of Loyola being one of the top ten youngest teams in D-I last year, and the fact that the Ramblers lost many games (SEVEN!) by three points or fewer. The Ramblers are again going to be a young team, but there’s only so long optimists can continue to use youth, injuries and the closeness of mounting losses as an excuse. The Ramblers will be expected to actually deliver something in the third year of Coach Moser’s sometimes painful rebuilding project, especially since the bottom 2/3 of the Missouri Conference is up for grabs.
Up until now, Coach Moser has had generous free reign and a golden opportunity to completely fashion the circumstances of his second chance as a high mid-major head coach. He has had the opportunity to completely fashion the personnel on his team to his own design. He has had more resources than any Loyola coach in the past quarter century. For two and a half years, he has had the ability to build his team exactly how he wants it, with almost no pressure at all, in the low-wattage spotlight and familiar confines of the Horizon League.
But Moser’s third season at Loyola and his first in the MVC should provide some clarification as to whether the many close losses last season should be retroactively credited primarily to youth, personnel, injuries, bad luck, simple execution, or… faulty strategy provided by the coach. Expectations are high, and given Moser’s 22-50 career record in Missouri Valley Conference games, he has much to prove. This is his chance, a nearly perfect chance, to dispel some of the negative reputation he acquired in his first go-round in the MVC.
With all that considered, here’s how I see the 2013-14 Missouri Valley Conference race:
- Wichita State
- Indiana State
- Northern Iowa
- Bradley
- Evansville
- Missouri State
- Illinois State
- Loyola
- Drake
- Southern Illinois
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