Category Archives: Game Previews

Valparaiso Preview — 1-21-2018

Sunday, January 21, 2018 3:00 p.m.
Athletics-Recreation Center, Valparaiso, Ind.

The 2017-18 Valparaiso Crusaders are an impressively talented but inexperienced team. If the Crusaders were still in the Horizon League, they’d probably be challenging for the top of that conference, just on sheer athletic ability. The Valpo talent pipeline keeps the players coming in on a regular basis, but it hit a snag after last season with a couple unexpected exits. And the Crusaders are also trying to acclimate to a conference with quite a bit more nuance, expectations, talent, and strategic rigor than the Horizon.

It’s a tough adjustment to the MVC. Loyola fans know what it’s like, only the Ramblers came into the conference under worse circumstances, with much more suspicion, cynicism, and even some anger. Loyola had to answer for all the things Valpo seems self-conscious about—home venue, attendance, coming from a lower league, not being better known in the media market—but now the league has gotten most of out of its system.

The Crusaders matched Loyola’s hot start this season almost point for point until they had a stretch of true road games against stiffer competition. After impressing with an 8-0 start and some gaudy margins of victory, this year’s Valpo product started to look more pedestrian as the Crusaders hit the road. Their first loss, a 30-point drubbing at Purdue, was followed by losses at Ball State (by 1 point), and at Northwestern (by 34 points). Then came losses at UC Riverside (by 13 points), and an 11-point loss at Indiana State in their MVC debut. It works out to a 9-1 record at home and neutral sites, and 2-8 in other teams’ buildings.

The personnel and the starting lineup has also changed quite a bit for the Crusaders. At the beginning of the season, 6’6” Oklahoma State transfer Joe Burton provided some athletic height and muscle. But Burton had academic problems and left the team after 10 games. And the Crusaders, longtime proponents of stockpiling foreign big men since their days in the Summit League, have realized that athleticism, quickness and length matters more in the MVC.

For the past several games the Crusaders have started three 6’2” guards—seniors Tevonn Walker and Max Joseph, and sophomore Bakari Evelyn. One center, lately 7’2” Derrik Smits, and one forward, recently 6’8” Mileek McMillan, fill out the starting lineup. Walker and Joseph are the Clayton Custer and Ben Richardson of Valpo, only they come from Montreal instead of Kansas City. Walker is the team’s leading scorer (15.5 ppg), top rebounder (5.1 rpg), and best defensive player. He shoots the ball a lot, he misses a lot, and he goes on crazy streaks where he hits everything or nothing. Despite being the team’s leading scorer by quite a bit, Walker shoots less than 40% overall, and barely 30% on threes. Joseph is a similar player, but finishes better at the basket, and takes fewer shots. Joseph averages 8.1 points and hauls in 4.7 rebounds. Walker and Joseph rank first and second on the team in both rebounds and steals. Bakari Evelyn is a sometimes explosive guard who leads the team in minutes, made three pointers, assists, and turnovers. A transfer from Nebraska, Evelyn averages 10.7 points, but has been wildly inconsistent. Evelyn had a game of 30 points against UNCW, but was held scoreless against Missouri State and had only 1 point against Samford. Also of note is sophomore point guard Micah Bradford, who comes off the bench as a great ball handler but needs to work on shooting; he averages 5.7 points per game.

Six-eight freshman forward Mileek McMillan has recently been added to the starting lineup. He averages 3.2 points and less than two rebounds. Six-six wing Marcus Golder is actally getting the most time at the forward spot coming off the bench for 8.8 points and 4.1 rebounds per game. NBA star Rik Smits’ son Derrik is averaging 7.0 points and 3.8 rebounds; another 7-foot sophomore, Jaume Sarolla, gets 5.7 points and 3.5 rebounds while leading the team in blocks.

The Crusaders have been giving fewer and fewer minutes to their bench players as the season goes on. An ankle injury to 6’5” guard John Kiser, Burton’s dismissal from the team, and lack of trust in freshmen in close conference games has shortened the Crusaders’ bench to seven or eight.

Each of Valpo’s guards are volatile, so it’s difficult for opponents to key in on them defensively. Leading scorer Tevonn Walker scored 25 points in a loss to Bradley, and two games later scored only 3 points in a win over SIU. Six different players have led the Crusaders in scoring in their wins.

The most important things when playing Valpo are controlling the tempo, taking care of the ball, and guarding penetration. When Valpo scores 72 points or more, they’re 11-1; when they score 71 or less, they’re 0-8. According to KenPom, Valpo ranks 64th in the nation in tempo, but five MVC teams rank 273rd or slower in tempo– Bradley (273), Loyola (293), Missouri State (315), Evansville (323), and UNI (347). So far this season, Valpo is 0-4 against the bottom five league teams in tempo, including their only home loss.

Valpo is very aggressive at attacking the basket, and they’ve reached the free throw line more than any other team in the conference by a wide margin—12.2% more. Yet Valpo is foul-prone themselves; Crusaders have fouled out of a game 10 times this season (Loyola has yet to have a player foul out of a game), and with their short bench that could be a big consideration. Three times this season the Crusaders have put the opposition on the free throw line 36 times or more in a game—all three of them Valpo losses.

Loyola is working on extending its longest conference winning streak since 2006-07, when the Ramblers were in the Horizon (and the season before Valpo arrived in the HL). The series with Valpo goes back to 1922 (before Alumni Gym was built), and the Ramblers have a 34-15 edge. While conference mates for six years in the Horizon from 2007 to 2013, Valpo had the edge 5-7, but the Ramblers were 3-3 in games at the ARC.

Links

Southern Illinois Preview– 1-17-2018

Wednesday, January 17, 2018 7:00 p.m.
Gentile Arena, Chicago, Ill.

Southern Illinois Coach Barry Hinson is going to win you some ballgames. In his 14 1/3 seasons in the MVC, he has finished at or above .500 in 11 of them– if you include his 3-3 conference record this season. In nine seasons with Missouri State and six seasons with ISU, he’s 259-208 overall as an MVC head coach, and 137-121 in MVC conference games. In their 17 previous head-to-head meetings, Barry Hinson is 13-4 against teams coached by Porter Moser, including a 3-0 record against the Ramblers last season.

Hinson is a master of getting the most out of what he’s got. He’ll use misdirection like a magician, or motivational tactics like Tony Robbins if that’s what it takes to win a ballgame. This year has been another challenge for his improvisational skills, as the Salukis have been beset by injuries.

Only four Salukis have played in all 18 of their ballgames this season. For comparison, the Ramblers—who had Adarius Avery and Christian Negron start the year on the injury list, and had the backcourt duo of Custer and Richardson miss several games at the same time—have had six players appear in all of their games. Nevertheless, Coach Hinson has managed to piece together a winning season thus far—3-3 in conference and 10-8 overall against D1 schools.

Without 6’8” center/forward Thik Bol, a rim protector who gave the Ramblers fits last year, the Salukis start four guards and a center. Armon Fletcher, Sean Lloyd, Aaron Cook, and Marcus Bartley start at guard, and Kavion Pippen, a 6’10” center, capably mans the frontcourt. The bench is thin, with only two available players having significant D1 experience.

Like Coach Moser, Hinson likes versatile, athletic combo guards. At 6’5”, redshirt junior Armon Fletcher averages 14.6 points per game to lead the Salukis, and is a great finisher at the basket. His quickness and nose for the ball ranks him second in rebounds at 5.3 per game. Like Fletcher, Sean Lloyd is another 6’5” junior guard who can shoot and pass and rebound. Lloyd averages 12.3 points per game, 4.8 rebounds, and ranks a close second in assists. Six-foot-two Aaron Cook is the putative point guard for the Salukis; he’s really a converted shooting guard who shoots pretty well, and he leads the team in both assists and turnovers. Marcus Bartley is another 6’5” junior guard. The St. Louis transfer plays mostly around the perimeter, and likes to pass if he doesn’t have a clear outside jumper.

Kavion Pippen is the 6’10” juco center, who averages 11.8 points and a team-leading 5.8 rebounds. Pippen (a cousin of the Bulls player) has great hands and instincts, and ranks second in the conference with 29 blocks.

The Salukis don’t have much of a bench—in their Saturday game against ISU, only eight players saw the floor, and one of them played less than a minute. Senior guard Tyler Smithpeters, a 6’4” outside shooting specialist receives most of the time from the bench. Smithpeters averages 6.7 points per game and plays good defense, but his 37% field goal shooting percentage is way down from previous seasons and has relegated him to the bench. Rudy Stradniecks is a 6’9” forward who scores 4.4 per game. Brendon Gooch is a 6’5” freshman forward who sees less than 10 minutes per game and averages less than a point a game, but at least he’s healthy. SIU has played only eight players in three of their last four games.

SIU is not a particularly good team on the road. They’ve lost at Louisville, Murray State, St. Louis, Valpo, and Bradley; their two road wins are at Winthrop to open the season and at UNI to open the conference season. The Salukis are 3-1 at Loyola since the Ramblers joined the MVC.

The Ramblers’ modest three game conference winning streak is tied for their longest since joining the MVC, and their two games above .500 conference record is tied with last year for the best conference record the Ramblers have achieved in the MVC. A win against Southern Illinois would set a new high bar before a two-game road swing to Valpo and Drake. The Ramblers will be favored in this game by a good margin, but a healthier team with more players available might pose significant problems on the return trip in late February.

Loyola game notes: http://www.loyolaramblers.com/documents … df?id=4803

SIU game notes: Pending

TV/Streaming video: NBC Sports Chicago + / http://www.espn.com/watch/_/id/3245130/ … basketball

Stats: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=189600

Vegas odds: Pending

Bradley Preview — 01-13-2018

Saturday, January 13, 2018 3:00 p.m.
Gentile Arena, Chicago, Ill.

Bradley University hired Coach Brian Wardle in April 2015 to bring competence and stability to a program in chaos as legal issues and losing seasons were piling up in Peoria. Loyola fans knew of Wardle from his days at Green Bay, where he led the Phoenix rebound to the top of the Horizon League. After two seasons of struggle to right the ship, the program seems to be coming together for the Braves in 2017-18 with a stingy defense and just enough offensive ability to enter the top half of a Missouri Valley landscape characterized by parity.

Wardle started off by bringing along a few recruits he discovered at Green Bay and signing up just about anyone else who could dribble and follow directions. Ten freshmen were on his first squad at Bradley, and while some developed and some washed out, he’s added several recruits since who have some high quality talent. Five of the original ten are still on the team, and while some no longer start, they add experience, familiarity with the system, and a work ethic that helps guide the talented newcomers.

The Braves defense is formidable. KenPom.com ranks Bradley’s defensive efficiency at 35th in the country, just below Kansas and Ohio State, and a notch better than New Mexico State and Oklahoma. That’s some impressive company. The package comes together best at Carver Arena, where growing crowds enthusiastically cheer on their team’s tight defense and Bradley opponents are averaging just 53.3 points per game. Away from home, however, confidence levels and whistles are less predictable; the Braves give up an average of 69.3 points in road games and 66 at neutral sites.

Bradley has settled on a starting five of 5’10” sophomore point guard Darrell Brown, 6’4” junior guard Dwayne Lautier-Ogunleye, 6’3” sophomore guard Jayden Hodgson, 6’11” sophomore center Koch Bar, and 6’7” senior forward Donte Thomas. These are the players that have earned starting spots over a very deep and experienced bench, and they did so primarily by playing hard defense.

Donte Thomas would likely start on just about any MVC team, and is the only starter who shoots better than 44% from the field. Thomas, the Chicago-area native and lone senior on the roster, has been a thorn in Loyola’s side since the Geno Ford regime at Bradley. In seven career games against the Ramblers, Thomas has had a game-winning shot at Gentile Arena and two double-doubles against the Ramblers while averaging 6.5 points and 7.6 rebounds per game. This year, he’s averaging 10.0 points and a team-leading 6.3 rebounds and 1.0 steals per game.

Darrell Brown is what makes the Braves go offensively. The diminutive but solidly-built point guard leads the team in minutes, field goal attempts, free throw attempts, assists, turnovers, and points per game (13.2). He is a better three-point shooter (40%) than from two (36.8%), but he gets to the line quite a bit and adds a lot on defense. Joining him in the backcourt are Hodgson, a three-point threat who averages 4.8 points per game, and one of the original Wardle recruits Lautier-Ogunleye, who averages 5.6 points and 5.1 rebounds.

Center Koch Bar is a very good rim protector, and averages 5.7 points and 4.0 rebounds per game. He contributes some blocks, but is prone to fouls. Thomas and Bar get a lot of frontcourt support from the bench in the person of 6’7” freshman forward Elijah Childs, who might be the most promising and athletic recruit at Bradley since the early Geno years. Childs leads the team in blocks and ranks second in field goal percentage while averaging 8.1 points and 5.9 rebounds in an average of 18.4 minutes per game.

Six-six sophomore guard Nate Kinnell leads the team in three point attempts off the bench, and averages 8.9 points per game. Luuk van Bree, the 6’9” junior forward, adds 6.1 points and provides a surprising outside shot threat—he leads the team in three-point percentage.

Don’t expect a very pretty game against Bradley. The Braves have shot below 40% from the field in all but one of their five losses. They’re not great free throw shooters, but getting to the line is a big part of their offense—so keeping them away from the foul line is important. Bradley averages 14.6 free throw attempts in their five losses, but 22.5 attempts in their 13 wins. Only one team has beaten Bradley while shooting less than 43% from the field, but the best any team this season has performed against Bradley is Evansville’s 49% last Saturday.

The Ramblers know a little something about defense, too. Since conference play began, Loyola is holding their opponents to 59 points per game. On Wednesday, the Ramblers held Illinois State to their lowest point total of the season on their home court, and that was three days after holding UNI to their lowest point total of the season on their home court. Points will be hard to come by on Saturday, even with the Ramblers’ usually efficient offense.

Loyola game notes: http://www.loyolaramblers.com/documents … df?id=4798

Bradley game notes: https://bradleybraves.com/documents/201 … df?id=7049

TV/Streaming video: NBC Sports Chicago / http://www.espn.com/watch/_/id/3244986/ … basketball (Outside IL-MO-IN-IA)

Stats: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=189599

Vegas odds: Pending