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Loyola’s 2014-15 men’s basketball season begins Friday, November 14, 2014 under perhaps the most pessimism and uncertainty in decades.  Not since Ken Burmeister’s first season in 1994-95 has there been as much off season chaos, disappointment, and skepticism surrounding a new basketball season at Loyola—and that’s saying a lot, considering the number of dismal and/or excruciating seasons since.

Despite hopes and some predictions for much better in 2013-14, the Ramblers finished last in the MVC in their inaugural season—even with the pleasant surprise of having the MVC’s Freshman and Newcomer of the Year in Milton Doyle.  But since a stirring, last-second win in the first round of last year’s MVC tournament, the news about this season’s Ramblers has been mostly bad:

• Four frontcourt players (Nick Osborne, Matt O’Leary, Cody Johnson, and Jeremy King)– representing 27% of all rebounding, 18% of all points, 43% of all blocks, and 21% of the minutes played last year– transferred out of the program immediately following the dismal 22-loss season.
• In addition to the four big men, freshman point guard Jordan Pickett also left the program, along with graduating players Tony Nixon, Bill Clark, and Derrick Boone.
• A highly-touted replacement for the four departing frontcourt players– 6’9” power forward Marlon Jones– failed to qualify for enrolling before the fall semester.
• Star player Milton Doyle was announced to have a torn labrum injury in October, and his prognosis for playing the full 2014-15 season is still highly uncertain.
• Loyola released what is probably the worst non-conference schedule in memory, with two non-D1 games to start the season, three games against teams with RPIs at 297 or worse last year, and one game against a team playing its first season in D1. The “highlight” of the home schedule is a Wednesday night game against Tulane, and the most intriguing matchup away from home is either the suicide mission to East Lansing or the possible Vegas tournament matchup with Boise State.
• Point guard Jeff White underwent an arthroscopic procedure shortly before the beginning of the season, and may not be available or fully recovered for the first few weeks of the season.

Yet not all of the news is bad.  Some of the incoming talent for 2014-15 has real potential.  Donte Ingram, a 6’6” wing from Simeon high school, has an excellent basketball pedigree to go with demonstrated scoring and rebounding ability.  Montel James is a 6’7” juco forward from Coffeyville Community College who averaged 13.4 points and 4.9 rebounds as a sophomore and earned first team all conference honors with even higher numbers as a freshman.   Jay Knuth is yet another wing at 6’6” who promises to add some depth.  The first team all state player averaged 19.0 points and 7.0 rebounds per game as a senior.  Freshman forward Julius Rajala, out of Finland, will be the tallest Rambler at 6’9”.

In the backcourt, Earl Peterson is another Coffeyville juco who earned first team all-conference honors.  The 6’3” shooting guard led the team with 16.7 ppg, 58 made three-pointers, and 173 trips to the line.  Ben Richardson is a solid 6’3” guard known for defending as well as scoring.  He comes to the Ramblers from Overland Park, Kan., where his high school team that won 94 out of 100 games during his four seasons, including two state championships.

Even though there are several newcomers who have potential to be improvements in talent over individual players from the 2013-14 squad, it should be noted and underscored:  Entering the 2014-15 season, Loyola will have seven newcomers on the roster, and only six players who have ever played a single minute of Division I basketball.  One of those six experienced players is a former walk-on, and another has started only six games in two years.

There will be only one player taller than 6’7”, and zero players over 6’5” with any prior D1 experience.  Beyond height, the Ramblers do not have any players on the roster weighing more than 220 pounds– in a league where every other team has between 4-6 players weighing 220 pounds or more.  Remember, this is a team that finished last in the league in rebounding even with the four frontcourt players who left en masse.

Heading up this inexperienced and undersized crew is a coach who desperately needs to show the ability to adapt to his new personnel just as a new athletic director arrives on campus.  Entering his fourth season at Loyola, Porter Moser is 10-42 in conference games and 32-61 overall in his three seasons at Loyola.  He has a 22-64 lifetime record in MVC conference games over five seasons of coaching at two different MVC schools.  The Ramblers also come into 2014-15 having lost 19 consecutive road games dating back to January 2013, including several losses in which they had double-digit second-half leads.

The MVC, thoroughly dominated last season by the 35-1 Wichita State Shockers, will see a lot of new faces in 2014-15.  Notably absent are Wichita State’s Cleanthony Early, now playing with the New York Knicks, and Jake Odom from MVC runner-up Indiana State.   Gone are the top scorers from Southern Illinois, Bradley, Drake, and Missouri State; the top rebounders from Bradley, Drake, Missouri State, and Southern Illinois have also moved on from college.

Northern Iowa and Evansville both return five starters with another year of experience, which could vault them to just below consensus favorite Wichita State.  Missouri State returns seven players who each averaged 14 minutes or more per game—including four starters– from a team that won 20 games last year.   Illinois State returns four starters as well, including big sophomore center Reggie Lynch, who led the league with 96 blocks.

As a whole, the MVC should be much more competitive in the middle of the standings (third place through seventh place), with Wichita State followed by Northern Iowa at the top.  Eighth place through 10^th should be pretty dismal, perhaps much worse than last year.

As for the Ramblers, the newcomers are very promising and should develop into very good players over the next several years.  But for this year, the lack of size and experience in the frontcourt, the doubts about Milton Doyle’s health, and the sheer number of players without Division I experience will likely doom the Ramblers to another last place finish.

Attitude and execution were certainly part of Loyola’s woes in 2013-14, but it could also be argued that the returning players (Christian Thomas, Jeff White, Joe Crisman, and Milton Doyle– plus sixth man Devon Turk) played close to the very top of their potential and expectations.  Some marginal improvement due to additional experience might be possible, mostly through better decision-making and reduced errors.  The coaching staff will also need to adjust strategy and improve game planning to maximize advantages and minimize some glaring deficiencies.

Loyola finished last in the league in 2013-14 largely because of turnovers and weak interior defense.  The Ramblers had the most number of turnovers in the league (averaging nearly one per game more than the next worst team), the worst turnover margin in the league (by far– twice as bad as the 9^th worst in the league), the lowest number of rebounds (by far), half as many blocked shots as the league leader (8^th in the league), and the worst field goal percentage defense in the league (by far).  What makes those numbers even worse was the fact that a large part of Loyola’s strategy last season was trying to control the tempo of the game, taking more time to look for the higher percentage shot, and lowering the opposition’s number of possessions.  Simply bringing in several talented but undersized newcomers to replace a larger, more experienced (yet admittedly deficient) frontcourt isn’t likely to change things very much for the better.

Here is the Ramblermania prediction:

1. Wichita State
2. Northern Iowa
3. Missouri State
4. Indiana State
5. Evansville
6. Illinois State
7. Southern Illinois
8. Bradley
9. Drake
10. Loyola

Comments and discussion are welcome on the Ramblermania message board.

Loyola’s first season of women’s basketball in the Missouri Valley conference began with a lot of fanfare and high hopes.  Women’s basketball legend Sheryl Swoopes was hired as head coach in April, just days before Loyola was announced as a new member of the MVC.  The 2013-14 Ramblers had a solid crew of impressive and experienced players, and were coming off a 17-15 season in their final year in the Horizon League (their most wins since 1989) in which they reached the conference tournament final against #20 Green Bay.

Yet almost from the opening tip-off, key injuries started to pile up for the Ramblers.  Forward Simone Law, center Courtney Lindfors, and guards Taylor Johnson and Tiana Karopulos were all lost to injuries.  After starting the conference season with a 4-2 record, the ailing Ramblers finished out the conference slate with only two wins in their final 12 contests, including a seven-game losing streak.  Late in the 2013-14 conference season, Loyola had a brief stretch where only seven players were dressed for the game.   Nevertheless, the Ramblers reached the conference tournament seeded #8, and knocked off #9 seed Bradley in their first MVC tournament game.

The Ramblers enter 2014-15 having lost MVC 1^st Team forward Troy Hambric to graduation and Cate Soane to transfer.  Ayrealle Beavers, who led the MVC in assists in 2013-14, is still at Loyola but no longer on the roster—she graduates in December.

Although Loyola’s 2014-15 team has a lot of promise, don’t expect the team to come roaring out of the gate.  Loyola has one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the MVC this year, playing all but two of their non-con games against teams that had an RPI better than 152 last season, including seven teams with RPIs at 107 or better.  The season begins at home against Georgia Tech (RPI of 41 last year), and other home non-con games include Michigan State (31) and DePaul (22).  Two key players coming off injuries last year– Molly Crosby and Tiana Karopulos–  were cleared to play just before the beginning of the season and may not be in top game shape for several weeks.  Taylor Manuel, a highly-touted 6’2” sophomore forward transfer from Purdue, won’t be eligible to play until after fall semester finals.

The Ramblers will eventually have one of the most impressive rosters in the MVC, including seven players listed at 6’0” or taller.  6’0” senior forward Simone Law was a Preseason All-Missouri Valley Conference player last season before missing all but six games to injury, and made the Horizon League First Team as a sophomore in 2012-13.  6’2” forward Molly Crosby is the MVC’s returning leader in blocks.  Sophomore point guard Taylor Johnson was the Horizon League Newcomer of the Year in 2012-13, and scored in double figures in her five games in 2013-14 before suffering a season-ending knee injury.  Freshman Ryaen Johnson, a 6’2” forward from Bolingbrook, is a rebounding machine who averaged 8.5 rebounds coming off the bench in Loyola’s two exhibition games.

Meanwhile, the MVC balance of power should show a lot more parity.  Last season’s champion Wichita State is expected to repeat under the leadership of Preseason Player of the Year Alex Harden.  Northern Iowa and Drake are also expected to compete in the top three; the two Iowa teams feature half the members of the MVC preseason team (Kyndal Clark and Lizzy Wendell from Drake, and Jen Keitel from UNI).  Evansville returns a solid inside-outside combination of sophomore Sara Dickey and senior Mallory Ladd.  Last year’s regular season co-champion Indiana State lost their top two scorers– Bilquis Abdul-Qaadir and Anna Munn– to graduation, and will compete with a new head coach.  Missouri State lost two starters from a 14-17 team, and Illinois State, Southern Illinois, and Bradley each lost key starters from lower-half finishing teams last year.

Assuming the Ramblers can stay healthy, Loyola promises to finish in the upper half of the league—possibly as high as third.  Second-year head coach Swoopes will have (finally) depth, experience, and superior height at nearly every position, and the very challenging schedule should help prepare the team well for a run at the top spots in the MVC.   Loyola’s scoring and rebounding should both be much more powerful and reliable this season, but the Ramblers will have to do a better job of taking care of the ball than they’ve shown in two early exhibition games (a combined 39 turnovers).

The first four games of the conference season—Drake and Northern Iowa at home, followed by road games at Evansville and Indiana State—should foreshadow the Ramblers 2014-15 fortunes somewhat clearly.  If the Ramblers can split (or better) in the first four games, it could be a very good season.  The Ramblers split the regular season last year against both Drake and Indiana State, and establishing themselves with early wins against those teams to start 2014-15 would build confidence toward taking care of business against teams expected to struggle.

Ramblermania prediction:

1.  Wichita State
2. Northern Iowa
3. Drake
4. Evansville
5. Loyola
6. Indiana State
7. Missouri State
8. Southern Illinois
9. Illinois State
10. Bradley

Just about one year ago today, Loyola was embarking on its first season in the Missouri Valley Conference.  I suppose I was like a lot of other Loyola fans:  I didn’t have any grandiose notions of spectacular achievements for the coming year.  I was mostly just happy to be out of the Horizon League, and my top goal for the season was to get integrated into the new conference and for our sports teams to show some competitiveness.

Now that Loyola’s second year in the MVC is about to begin, I’m thinking about all that’s happened over the past year and where we are now.  I wouldn’t say we’re totally integrated into the MVC, but we made some good strides.  We had a couple of upsets in men’s basketball, we won a conference tournament game, and we had the league freshman and newcomer of the year.  The women’s basketball team won a conference tournament game and finished out of the league basement under a first-year head coach who showed some promise.  Softball reached the league tournament final, and had a lead with only a few outs from winning the championship before a taking a tough loss.  Men’s basketball was the only sport where we finished last in the league.  And we won a National Championship (!!!!!!) in men’s volleyball—something that was far beyond my wildest expectations.

In thinking about Year Two in the MVC, I guess the main goals I’d like for us to accomplish is to shore up some of our weaknesses as a program, prove that the good things we accomplished last year were not flukes, and make some progress toward establishing ourselves in the top half of the league.  Here are a few things I’d like to see over the coming year:

1. Scheduling Improvement.   In most (but not all) sports, the MVC is a much more competitive league than the Horizon.  Most of last year’s schedules were made before we were members of the MVC, so I didn’t count the scheduling weaknesses as a negative.  But now that we’ve had a year to clear off previous obligations from our schedules, we should be scheduling better.  The 2014-15 women’s basketball schedule is already out, and it is excellent.  I hope we see the same improvement in men’s basketball, and early indications are that we will.
2. Attendance Improvement.   Last year’s attendance in men’s and women’s basketball was an embarrassment.  Yes, we had one of the worst winters in a generation, but given our entry to the MVC and a legendary new coach for women’s basketball, it was shockingly bad.  I don’t know who dropped the ball or what combinations of factors led to it, but it has to change immediately.  Better scheduling should help, but it can’t be the only improvement.  There shouldn’t be a single men’s basketball game with less than 2000 this year, a women’s basketball game with less than 800, or a men’s volleyball game with less than 800.  Anything less is simply inexcusable.
3. Making a Run at a Conference Title.   Although Loyola only had one last-place finish in the league, the best finish was a distant third place in women’s soccer.  In every sport, Loyola was winless against the regular season conference champion, with the exception of one softball game.  I would like to see a legitimate run at a conference championship in at least one sport.  At this point, women’s volleyball and women’s soccer seems like the most likely possibilities—women’s soccer plays conference favorite Illinois State at home this year after losing 1-0 on the road to the conference champions the past two seasons.  Women’s volleyball came within two points in a fifth game of upsetting this season’s favorite Northern Iowa on the road last season.  A fourth-place or better finish in women’s basketball would also qualify, positioning the team to make a good run in the conference tournament.
4. Turning the Corner in Men’s Basketball.   The only sport where we finished last in 2013-14 is unfortunately also our flagship and most important sport.  Despite having one of the most talented players in the league in Milton Doyle, the men’s basketball team finished last and lost 9 of the 16 players listed on the roster this time last year.   Finishing out of the basement in 2014-15 would at least show that the program is moving in the right direction with the roster turnover and promising new talent.  If men’s basketball can avoid the cellar—even barely— and hold on to all the young players after the season, it would position Loyola well for a top-half finish in 2015-16.
5. Landing an Athletic Director for the Long Run.  Loyola is in a great position to establish itself as a top quality athletics program, but only with a strong and insightful athletic director at the helm.  The building blocks and raw potential are all there, it’s just a matter of having focus and foresight to move the program in the right direction.  While the previous AD made many positive moves, some areas (fundraising, attendance, marketing emphasis, etc.) were not well served at all.  The Loyola job has become a lot more attractive in the past few years, with facilities upgrades, membership in the MVC, a renewed commitment from the administration, and a national championship in men’s volleyball.  Hopefully the next AD will be a talent worthy of the opportunity.