Loyola at NC State Preview — 11/26/2016

Saturday, November 26, 2016 3:00 p.m.
PNC Arena, Raleigh, N.C.

When it comes to North Carolina basketball, the NC State Wolfpack are often overlooked with the attention that’s always given to UNC and Duke. Just about anywhere else, if you make 26 NCAA Tournament appearances (including four of the past five years), 11 trips to the Sweet 16, three visits to the Final Four, win two National Championships, and play in an arena that seats 20k, you’re going to be constantly thought of first in the state in college hoops.

Imagine how frustrating it would be to always be thought of as a far distant third place in spite of success that would make you a legendary and dominant force just about anywhere else. Imagine living an upper class lifestyle in the shadows of two obscenely prosperous neighbors, or being a merely successful child in a hyper-competitive family dynasty. Imagine being mentioned in the same conversation as two giants, but most often as a condescending courtesy or an afterthought. Where I live in Central Illinois, the Cubs and Cardinals always get the attention and it’s got to be pretty awkward for the smattering of White Sox fans.

The phenomenon has to produce a little bit of a chip on one’s shoulder. For the NC State Wolfpack, that chip is usually dumped on the floor at the ACC Tournament, where the Pack often over-performs to earn a trip to the dance.

This season, NC State is struggling with having lost ACC 1st teamer Anthony “Cat” Barber, who skipped out on his senior season only to go undrafted by the NBA. Barber averaged 23.5 points, 4.5 assists, and 4.6 rebounds per game for a team that finished 16-17 overall last season and brought up the rear in the ACC. To make things worse, twin brothers Caleb and Cody Martin, who combined for 17.5 ppg decided to transfer. But the new recruits coming in, including two 5-star recruits at point guard and center, may make the Wolfpack much more competitive. NC State was picked for a 6th place finish in the ACC preseason poll, and 7th place by Bleacher Report, who called this year’s ACC “absurdly loaded” and suggested that as many as 10 of the 13 teams would be tournament worthy.

Starting at point guard 6’3” freshman Dennis Smith, Jr., a 5-star prospect from nearby Fayetteville, who is leading the team averaging 17.8 ppg and 5.2 assists per game. So far, the youngster has shown no timidity in hoisting up ill-advised shots. He leads the team in field goal attempts, but is only making 41.4% of his twos and 29.2% of his threes. He also gets to the line more often than any other Wolfpack player, and leads the team with a deadly 87.2% free throw percentage.

Also starting at guard are 6’5” sophomore Torin Dorn (16.8 ppg) and 6’5” senior Terry Henderson (17.0 ppg). They both shoot the three well, with Henderson leading the team in attempts and taking more than half his shots from behind the arc. Dorn plays a little more like a very quick wing forward and collects an average of 6.6 rebounds in addition to connecting on 68.4% of his two-point shots.

There is some question as to who will be starting in the frontcourt. Freshman Maverick Rowan, a 6’7” four-star recruit started the first game of the season and scored 17 points to go with nine rebounds, but took a hit above his eye and missed the entire Paradise Jam. Beejay Anya, a 6’9” senior forward weighing in at 344 pounds has been starting in his place and averaging 4.6 points and 3.2 rebounds. If Rowan is cleared to play, he will probably start. Six-foot-eight junior forward Abdul-Malik Abu also starts and averages 15.4 points and 8.8 boards. He’s active in the paint on both offense and defense, leading the team with 18 offensive boards, and nine blocks. He also ranks second on the team in getting to the free throw stripe, where he converts on 74.2% of his freebies.

If Rowan is not available to play, the Wolfpack will be mighty shorthanded. Seven-foot-one freshman center Omer Yurtseven, a five-star recruit coveted by the NBA, was suspended for the first nine games of the season for receiving money for playing in Turkey. Only two other players beyond the five likely starters have appeared in all of NC State’s games this season: skinny 6’1” freshman guard Markell Johnson (4.6 points, 3.4 assists, 1.4 steals in an average of 23 minutes per game) and 6’7” freshman forward Darius Hicks (2.2 rebounds in 10.8 minutes per game, only one point scored on the season). NC State’s three starting guards each average more than 33.6 minutes, and Abu plays an average of 28.6. The Wolfpack plays a lot of time with four-guard lineups with Dorn guarding the opposing forwards.

NC State is still trying to figure out where all the pieces fit this season. With three freshmen playing significant minutes, an injury and a key recruit on suspension until Dec. 15, NC State is feeling their way through the early going with stopgap measures at some key spots on the floor. Defense has been a weakness, with opponents holding a rebounding edge and a sizeable advantage on field goal attempts. The Wolfpack have been very strong on getting to the line (44 attempts more than their opponents) and shot-blocking. NC State’s best win on the season has been against St. Joseph’s, where they held high-scoring guard Lamarr Kimble (career high 26 points against Loyola last week) to only three points on 1 of 15 shooting.

Loyola is likely to start its regular five: Milton Doyle, Clayton Custer, Ben Richardson, Donte Ingram, and Maurice Kirby. Against NC State, the key players who will have their hands full on defense are likely to be Clayton Custer covering Dennis Smith, Jr. and whoever is assigned to guard Abdul-Malik Abu. The Ramblers will probably have to double team Abu, as long as they don’t leave Dorn and Henderson open to go wild.

With NC State being shorthanded and playing a lot of inexperienced players, Loyola might be wise to go at players like Smith, Dorn, and Abu to lure them into foul trouble. In the two-point home win against Georgia Southern, Dorn, Abu and Anya were hampered by four fouls each. In the loss to Creighton, Anya fouled out, and Smith, Henderson, and Abu accumulated four fouls, and NC State was forced to bring in seldom-used Shaun Kirk, who also piled up four fouls– in only 11 minutes.

Links

Ramblermania message board discussion

Loyola game notes: http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/loy … 125aaa.pdf

NC State game notes: http://sidearm.sites.s3.amazonaws.com/g … f?id=13313

TV/Streaming video: http://www.espn.com/watchespn/index/_/i … basketball

Radio: http://gopack.com/watch/?Live=587

Vegas odds: NC State by 13