Northern Iowa Preview — 1-07-2018

Posted on January 6, 2018 | By: John C. Thomas | Leave a comment

Sunday, January 7, 2018 3:00 p.m.
McLeod Center, Cedar Falls, Iowa

Two struggling teams meet Sunday afternoon to try to regain their poise after an awkward start to conference play. The Ramblers have lost three out of their last four games after turning heads with a 10-1 start. The UNI Panthers were picked to finish 2nd in the MVC, but have lost five games in a row, including their first three conference games.

UNI had the league’s most challenging non-con schedule, including opening up against the defending national champions. After a season opening loss at #9 North Carolina, the Panthers picked up impressive wins against SMU, NC State, and UNLV. But since a close win at home over UT Arlington on December 7, the Panthers haven’t had a D1 win.

Coach Ben Jacobsen has had the same starting five in every game this season. Senior forwards Bennett Koch and Klint Carlson handle the frontcourt; guards Isaiah Brown, Tywhon Pickford, and Juwan McCloud are in the backcourt. At 6’10”, Koch leads the team in scoring (13.1 points per game), blocks, free throws made, and field goal percentage (.579). He averages 6.7 rebounds per game. Six-seven Klint Carlson averages 9.5 points and 6.1 rebounds.

Six-four freshman guard Tywhon Pickford has been phenomenal for UNI in the early going. He averages 9.3 points per game, which is very good for a freshman, but his rebounding is amazing—he’s second in the league in rebounding at 8.9 per game. Isaiah Brown is a 6’7” sophomore who takes a lot of shots from the perimeter; he averages 6.5 points and is second on the team in made threes (20). Sophomore Juwan McCloud is 5’10” and averages 8.6 points per game while leading in assists and steals.

Coming off the bench are 6’1” sophomore Spencer Haldeman and 6’2” junior Wyatt Lohaus, two outside shot specialists who receive the lion’s share of the minutes from the bench. Lohaus averages 8.6 points per game and Haldeman averages 7.9. Six-foot-nine senior center Ted Freidman (0.9 points per game) and 6’9” freshman forward Austin Phyfe (1.6 ppg) also see time in just about every game.

The Panthers still play their deliberate style, grinding out possessions with tough defense. UNI’s 61.1 average points allowed per game leads the MVC and ranks ninth in all of Division 1. The problem for the Panthers has been scoring, specifically field goal percentage. UNI’s 42.1% field goal percentage is last in the MVC, and they rank 7th in three-point percentage. Aside from Koch, none of UNI’s remaining starters shoot better than 40.4%. And Koch has had problems staying on the court because of foul trouble. In games this year where Koch gets four fouls or more, the Panthers are 0-4; in UNI’s D1 wins, Koch averages 28.8 minutes, and in their losses he averages only 23.7.

The Ramblers have lost their last two road games, and the Panthers have lost their last two home games. After starting the season averaging 77.9 points per game in their first 11 contests, Loyola has averaged only 59.5 points on offense in their last four. UNI is averaging only 53.7 points on offense since conference play started.

Loyola game notes:
http://www.loyolaramblers.com/documents/2018/1/5//UNI_Away_Notes_1_7_18.pdf?id=4783

UNI game notes: http://www.unipanthers.com/documents/2018/1/5//16_Loyola_at_UNI.pdf?id=3664

TV/Streaming video: ESPNU http://www.espn.com/watch/_/id/3215420/loyola-vs-northern-iowa-m-basketball

Stats: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=191321

Vegas odds: Pending

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Indiana State Preview — 01-03-2018

Posted on January 2, 2018 | By: John C. Thomas | Leave a comment

Wednesday, January 3, 2018 7:00 p.m.
Gentile Arena, Chicago, Ill.

Indiana State has been one of the most unpredictable teams in the league this season. They started out the season with a shocking, not-even-close win over Indiana University in Bloomington, in which all five starters scored in double figures and all 14 dressed players got some court time. After that enormous win, however, the Trees limped to a 2-7 record in their remaining non-con games against D1 teams. It looked like they were in actuality a weak squad, that is, until MVC conference play started. Since the conference season began, ISU is 1-1, and came a few points in overtime at Illinois State from going 2-0.

Coach Greg Lansing started the season with a three guard, center and forward lineup, and mixed and matched his starters trying to find the right combination. When the Trees shoot better than 40% on two-pointers, they’re competitive. When they shoot below 40% on two-point shots– no matter how hot they are from the perimeter– they’re blown out. Entering conference play, he counterintuitively switched to a four guard, one center starting crew, and the results have been very positive.

The ISU starters are now Jordan Barnes, Brenton Scott, Clayton Hughes, and Quiydar Davis at guard, and Brandon Murphy at center. Barnes is a speedy 5’11” sophomore who can be very explosive offensively. Averaging 17.1 points and 4.1 rebounds per game, Barnes also leads the team in minutes, assists, three pointers/attempts, and turnovers. Nearly 70% of Barnes’ field goal attempts are behind the arc, and he shoots 48.7% on his attempts. His 55 made threes not only leads the league, it ranks 4th in all of college basketball this season. Just as surprising is the fact that Barnes snags an amazing number of rebounds for his size—he’s been the team’s co-leader in rebounds every game since the switch to a four guard lineup.

Brenton Scott is a 6’1” senior who averages 14.0 points and 5.6 boards. Scott was named to the MVC Preseason First team, but his shooting percentage from distance is down again for the fourth consecutive year since his impressive freshman campaign. Still, Scott provides senior leadership and leads the team in steals and rebounds. Joining Scott and Barnes in the backcourt are 6’6” freshman guard Clayton Hughes and 6’5” grad transfer Quiydar Davis. Hughes averages 3.4 points per game on the season, but has averaged 6.5 points in the two games since becoming a starter. Davis is a guard who’s built like an undersized forward, and plays a lot like Donte Ingram; he causes some matchup problems for opponents, can shoot well enough from three to be a threat, leads the team in free throw percentage, and averages 10.9 points and 5.2 boards per game.

The center position is manned by 6’7” senior Brandon Murphy. He averages 7.1 points and 4.0 rebounds playing just under 20 minutes per game. Six-nine junior center Emondre Rickman comes off the bench to spell Murphy, and averages 4.5 points and 4.4 rebounds.

The problem with the four-guard lineup is playing time—too much for the guards and not enough for the reasonably talented frontcourt players stuck on the bench. There’s not much experience or offensive firepower on the bench to replace any of the starting guards. Six-two freshman Tyreke Key gets the most minutes off the bench, averaging 8.6 points per game, but he shoots only 35% from the field, and less than 30% from three. Six-foot-eight junior forward Devin Thomas and 6’8” sophomore forward Bronson Kessinger are both seeing reduced minutes since they each received several starts with three-guard starting five. Thomas averages 4.5 points and Kessinger averages 3.4.

Barnes ranks third in the MVC in minutes per game at 33.5, and Scott is averaging just under 32. Scott played 41 minutes in ISU’s overtime loss at Illinois State on Sunday, and Barnes had 36 minutes due only to playing with four fouls near the end of the game. The Trees were held to a season-low 19% (4-for-21) on three-point attempts, blew a 10-point lead with 7 minutes left, and missed two tries to win in the final five seconds of regulation before losing 84-81 in OT.

Loyola is coming off a tough 66-59 win over Evansville in which the Ramblers trailed by eight at halftime. Guard Ben Richardson has returned to the team from a fractured hand after missing 10 games, and it appeared that it took the team 20 minutes or so to get back into the flow with the team’s top defender back on the court. Point guard Clayton Custer should be just about ready to come back from his ankle injury. The Ramblers should be a favorite by 6-9 points, but the Sycamores have a way of pushing other teams by finding weaknesses. For the Ramblers, rebounding, interior defense, and defending the three-point line going to be important against the Trees.

Loyola game notes: http://www.loyolaramblers.com/documents/2018/1/1//Indiana_State_Home_Notes_1_3_18.pdf?id=4777

Indiana State game notes: http://www.gosycamores.com/documents/2018/1/2//INS_15Notes.pdf

TV/Streaming video: http://www.espn.com/watch/_/id/3244751/indiana-state-vs-loyolachicago-m-basketball

Stats: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=189598

Vegas odds: Pending

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Evansville Preview — 12-30-2017

Posted on December 27, 2017 | By: John C. Thomas | Leave a comment

Saturday, December 30, 2017 3:00 p.m.
Gentile Arena, Chicago, Ill.

Evansville was supposed to struggle in 2017-18, but the teams’ struggles have mostly been due to injury rather than personnel or performance. The Purple Aces have knocked off Fresno State at a neutral site and Bowling Green on the road en route to their 10-4 start (8-4 against D1 competition). They gave Illinois State all they could handle last Saturday, racing out to a 10-point lead in the first half and taking back the lead with 2:26 left to play before losing 72-66.

Injury and illness has taken out leading scorer Ryan Taylor for seven games, second leading scorer and point guard Dru Smith for four games, and senior shooting guard Duane Gibson for three games. All three were out together for the Aces’ epic 104-40 drubbing at #3 Duke a couple weeks ago. Taylor and Gibson have returned without missing a beat; Dru Smith remains on the injury list while he recovers from a stress fracture in this foot.

The Aces will likely start 6’5” senior Blake Simmons at forward, 6’9” junior Dainius Chatkevicius at forward/center, 6’5” sophomore guard K.J. Riley, 6’3” Duane Gibson, and 6’6” junior guard Ryan Taylor. Averaging 21.4 points per game on 42.7% shooting from the field. He’s a good player who takes a LOT of shots to get his points; even when the opposition knows he’s going to take twice as many field goal attempts as anyone else on the team, he makes them at a respectable clip.

Joining Taylor as a prolific scorer are the two senior starters, Blake Simmons and Duane Gibson. Gibson is deceptively quick to rebounds and always seems to give Loyola headaches; in six previous career games against the Ramblers he averages 13.2 points and 4.8 rebounds, while shooting 54.1% from the field. This year Gibson is averaging 8.4 points and 3.4 rebounds. Very unusual for a 6’3” guard, Gibson does not take three-point shots; he’s 0-for-3 in his career on threes, despite playing in 114 career games.

Blake Simmons had seen a declining role and playing time each year since his impressive freshman season where he averaged 9.2 points and 3.0 rebounds, and he missed all of last season with an injury. But in his senior campaign, Simmons looks poised to be the team’s second banana on offense. Through the first 14 games of the 2017-18 campaign, the coach’s son is averaging career highs in points per game (11.9), field goal percentage (47.5%), three-point field goal percentage (50.9%), and rebounds per game (3.1). He’s hitting three-pointers at twice the rate of his career season high as a freshman, and he leads the league thus far in minutes played.

Dainius Chekevicius has been starting most games as the rim protector and top rebounder for the Aces, but he played only four minutes against Illinois State. The 6’9” juco out of Vincennes University averages 6.0 points and 5.4 rebounds. Sophomore K.J. Riley, a strong combo guard out of the Bronx, has been starting in place of Dru Smith; he has ability to drive to the basket and finish. Riley doesn’t take threes, and averages 7.9 points and 3.2 boards.

Six-four freshman guard Noah Frederking (6.0 points), 6’9” center Dalen Traore (3.9 points, 3.2 rebounds), and 6’7” redshirt freshman forward John Hall (3.2 points) get most of the minutes off the bench.

This year’s Aces have several outstanding characteristics. Marty Simmons’ crew leads Division I in three-point field goal percentage even after their 1 for 10 showing against the Redbirds last weekend. UE doesn’t take a lot of three-point shots (almost 50 attempts fewer than Loyola, which is the 2nd least in the league), but when they fire, they hit at 46.3%. They are great from the free throw line, firing in 77.5% of their shots and getting to the line the second most often of any team in the MVC. They are not very good on the boards, and they do not pressure the ball very much (especially with Dru Smith on the sidelines).

Similar to many recent Loyola teams, the Aces rely on high shooting percentage, controlling tempo, team rebounding, and getting to the free throw line to win games. They typically only use one player at a time over 6’5”, and they really struggle against long and versatile forwards. Illinois State’s Malik Yarborough torched them for 28 points on Saturday, Duke’s Wendell Carter Jr. scored 27 points in 18 minutes against them. Austin Peay’s chunky 6’5” forward Terry Taylor scored 30 on 12 of 17 shooting in an overtime game at the Ford Center.

Coming off a hard-fought road loss to the league favorites, the Ramblers need to win this game more than the Aces. Loyola has struggled on both sides of the ball without their two experienced backcourt players, especially on the road. The Aces can get hot from anywhere on the court, and (almost) always seem to be within striking distance. No team should ever sleep on a team that leads Division I in three-point shooting percentage, especially after losing two in a row. The Ramblers will be favored in this game, but the Aces have the ability to shock as Fresno State can attest.

Loyola game notes: http://www.loyolaramblers.com/documents/2017/12/27//Evansville_Home_Notes_12_30_17.pdf?id=4772

UE game notes: Pending

TV/Streaming video: NBC Sports Chicago / ESPN3 (out of market) http://www.espn.com/watch/_/id/3232403/evansville-vs-loyolachicago-m-basketball

Stats: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=189597

Vegas odds: Pending

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