Missouri State Preview — 12-22-2017

Friday, December 22, 2017 8:00 p.m.
JQH Arena, Springfield, Mo.

Loyola kicks off the 2017-18 conference season with a pre-Christmas Friday night road game against the conference favorites. Loaded with seniors, including the 2017-18 Preseason Player of the Year Alize Johnson, Missouri State was picked as a heavy favorite to win the MVC in the 2017-18 Preseason Poll. The Bears picked up 30 of the 40 first place votes in the poll, even as the MVC was considered to have the most parity in decades.

Coach Paul Lusk’s 2017-18 squad has a lot of talent, so much so that two heralded upperclassmen—seniors-to-be Chris Kendrix and Austin Ruder—left the team last spring as their playing time diminished and they had limited prospects. A plethora of experienced newcomers has bolstered an already talented returning group. The Bears have been very inconsistent in non-conference season despite their 9-3 record. The Bears won their toughest game on an uninspiring non-conference schedule—an 85-80 road win against Western Kentucky—but dropped three much easier games, including two (home against North Dakota State and at Oral Roberts) that should have been gimmes.

The MSU starting five are likely to be Jarred Dixon and Ryan Kreklow at the guard spots, and the trio of Alize Johnson, Jarrid Rhodes, and Obediah Church in the frontcourt. Grad transfer JT Miller recently replaced Ronnie Rousseau III in the starting lineup, but Miller did not play at all in Tuesday’s win over Wright State.

Dixon is a 6’4” junior guard who averages 7.9 points per game and leads the team in assists. Kreklow is a senior shooting guard specializing in threes, but has had trouble finding his stroke this season. He averages 7.2 points per game and leads the team in steals, but is shooting only 32.8% from three and only 33.7% overall.

Six-six small forward Jarrid Rhodes averages 9.2 points and 4.6 boards per game. He leads the team in made threes, shooting at a 40.4% clip. Obediah Church is a 6’7” junior forward who likes to mix it up inside. Church, a Springfield, Ill. native, leads the league in blocks, averages 6.9 points per game, 5.8 rebounds per game (2.6 on the offensive boards, ranking third in the MVC), and hits 71% of his shots from the field.

MVC Preseason Player of the Year Alize Johnson is the most talented player in the league. At 6’9”, he plays with the ball handling abilities of a shooting guard. Averaging 14.0 points and 10.5 rebounds, he shoots 54.5% on his two-point field goal tries, but his three-point stroke has been off this season compared to last. He’s also a great passer, ranking a close second on the team in assists.

MSU’s bench is among the best in the league, and gets a lot of playing time. JT Miller, a 6’2” graduate transfer guard by way of Howard University, is a sometimes-starter who averages 9.8 points on 52.7% shooting from the field. Juco newcomer Reggie Scurry is a solidly-built 6’5” junior forward averaging 9.4 points; he ranks second on the team in blocks, and shoots 58.1% from the field. Ronnie Rousseau III was the starting point guard at the beginning of the season, but now comes off the bench to play starters’ minutes. The 5’10” senior is a dangerous outside shooter, and averages 6.5 points and 2.2 assists per game. Tanveer Bhullar, a 7’2” grad transfer from New Mexico State gets into most games but averages less than 10 minutes per game, chipping in 3.1 points on average.

If you haven’t noticed, the Bears have a lot of height and length, augmented by very speedy guards. They’re led by upperclassmen, and have very good depth and flexibility from the bench. The result is a team that leads the league in blocks, rebounding margin, and offensive rebounds. Conversely, the Bears struggle a bit with their turnover margin, steals, and outside shooting. Both MSU and Loyola are somewhat turnover prone, but MSU overcomes that with an 8.8 average rebounding margin. Loyola’s strength is shooting percentage, and passing. The Ramblers are first in the league in field goal percentage, and the Bears are fifth; Loyola is second in three-point shooting percentage, the Bears are last. It will be a contrast in styles when these two teams match up.

Loyola is coming off an embarrassing 73-56 loss in Milwaukee, where the injuries to Clayton Custer and Ben Richardson seemed crucial just a few minutes into the game. Uncharacteristically, the Ramblers were ice cold from distance throughout the game, and Loyola’s opponents were lights out. Loyola had a season-low nine assists in the game, and shot under 40% from the field for only the second time this year—both losses—as the Panthers went on a blistering run in the final minutes of the first half to stretch out to a 17-point advantage. Richardson may be getting close to returning for the Ramblers, but freshman Christian Negron was injured before the UWM game and his status is also indefinate.

The Ramblers have won only one conference opener since joining the MVC, and have won only two of the past 10 conference openers dating back to the Horizon League. The Ramblers split with MSU last year, and hold a 6-3 advantage all-time with Missouri State.

Loyola Game Notes: http://www.loyolaramblers.com/documents/2017/12/20//Missouri_State_Away_Notes_12_22_17.pdf?id=4768

MSU Game Notes: http://missouristate_ftp.sidearmsports.com/custompages/sports/m-baskbl/notes/Game%20Notes%2014.pdf

TV/Streaming video: NBC Sports Chicago / ESPN 3 (http://www.espn.com/watch/_/id/3232399/loyolachicago-vs-missouri-state-m-basketball)

Live Stats: http://www.sidearmstats.com/missouristate/mbball/media/

Vegas Odds: Pending

UWM Preview — 12-16-2017

Saturday, December 16, 2017 1:00 p.m.
UW Milwaukee Panther Arena, Milwaukee, Wis.

The Loyola Ramblers head 84 miles north for their final non-conference game of the regular season, against a familiar foe. The UW Milwaukee Panthers are former Horizon League conference mates who are now coached by Pat Baldwin, a key Loyola assistant coach for seven years throughout the Jim Whitesell era. It’s a dangerous game for the Ramblers—a road contest just after getting some national praise, against a pretty good team, with a coach who has intimate institutional knowledge about Loyola. That’s prime territory and timing for an upset if the Ramblers aren’t careful.

Baldwin inherited a UWM team picked to finish 8th in the Horizon League preseason poll. But the newly-minted D1 head coach managed to shock the Iowa State Cyclones the first weekend of the season for his first D1 coaching win, 74-56. Since then, UWM has knocked off Florida International, Elon, Northern Illinois, and Jacksonville. The Panthers have been one of the few bright spots in the Horizon League this season, which is languishing near the bottom (30th out of 32) in Conference RPI.

When things are going right for the Panthers, they’ll score more than 65 points and play very good defense. They held Iowa State to only 56 points and Northern Illinois to 62 in two impressive road wins. The Panthers thrive by turning tough defense into offense—19 points off turnovers against Iowa State, 10 points off turnovers and 19 second chance points against Northern Illinois. But when UWM scores fewer than 65, they’re 1-5, including one of their two exhibitions and a regular season home loss to Division II Concordia-St. Paul. They’re one of the top 75 teams in the nation defensively, allowing only 66.3 points per game on average, but scoring in bunches has been a problem.

The likely starters for Saturday are guards Brock Stull, Jeremy Johnson, and Bryce Barnes; the starting forwards are Brett Prahl and Bryce Nze. Leading scorer Brock Stull has missed the past two games—road losses to Western Illinois and Belmont—with a banged-up knee. The 6’4” junior guard out of Rockford averages 12.3 points and pulls in 4.2 boards, and provides key leadership on the court. Bryce Barnes, a 5’11” sophomore speedster out of Chicago’s Bogan Prep scores an average of 8.6 per game. Six-three sophomore Jeremy Johnson averages 6.7 per game.

Brett Prahl is a 6’9” senior forward who averages 10.3 points and 5.9 rebounds while leading the team in field goal percentage. Prahl doesn’t take a lot of shots, but he’s sure-handed when he does. Bryce Nze is a 6’7” 230-pound sophomore forward who leads the team in rebounding (7.9 per game) while chipping in 9.6 points on average. Both of UWM’s inside guys play a lot of minutes (nearly 30 per game), can block shots (each averages about 1.0 per game), and really excel at offensive rebounding. Thanks in large part to their offensive glass work, UWM has taken 37 more field goal attempts than their opponents.

The top Panthers off the bench are 6’0” guard Jeremiah Bell, 6’1 guard August Haas, 6’5” freshman guard Carson Warren-Newsome, and 6’8” junior forward Vance Johnson. Bell likes to drive to the basket through traffic, and averages 11.4 points per game. Bell shoots just under 40% from the field, but has taken the most field goal attempts on the team. August Haas is a really impressive playmaker who likes to drive and dish. He leads the team in assists by far, while averaging 5.7 points per game. Haas was a starter last year against the Ramblers, but has been coming off the bench lately. Warren-Newsome averages 4.4 points, and Johnson spells the bigs for about 11-15 minutes per game, averaging 2.4 points and 3.1 boards.

UWM is one of the worst teams in the nation in both shooting and defending the three-point shot. I haven’t run the numbers, but they likely have the largest disparity in the nation on the three-point shot. UWM is 340th out of 351 teams in defending against the three, allowing 41.2%. And they are 321st in three-point field goal percentage, at 29.7%. Despite taking 18 more threes than their opponents, the other guys have made 21 more—yikes!

Last year the Ramblers beat UWM 72-56, with Milton Doyle (22 points) and Aundre Jackson (21) leading the way. Loyola was shorthanded in that game, with Bruno Skokna starting in place of injured Donte Ingram. The Panthers were led by Cody Wichman (since graduated) who had 13 points, and Brock Stull added 11.

Coaching UW Milwaukee is a pretty good gig. Baldwin takes over for LaVall Jordan, who was hired by his alma mater Butler after only one season at the helm of UWM. Jordan took over for Rob Jeter, who was fired after accumulating 184 wins, 2 NCAA Tournament appearances, 1 NIT and 1 CBI in 11 seasons. The two coaches before Jeter, Bruce Pearl and Bo Ryan, both left Milwaukee for multi-million dollar salaries, and in Ryan’s case, the College Basketball Hall of Fame.

It’s going to be Star Wars Day at the UW Milwaukee Panther Arena, the former MECCA. The old Milwaukee Bucks with Oscar Robertson and Lew Alcindor used to play there on an amazing floor designed by artist Robert Indiana. Loyola had some epic battles with Marquette there in the late 50s and early 60s, when Al McGuire piloted the Warriors to great seasons in front of packed houses. Rambler fans should try to make the trip to Milwaukee to root on the team in this crucial game (UWM sits at 117 in the RPI, making this a Group 2 level game), and try to appreciate the history of the building in between screaming their heads off for the Ramblers.

Loyola game notes: http://www.loyolaramblers.com/documents/2017/12/14//Milwaukee_Notes.pdf?id=4764

UWM game notes: http://mkepanthers.com/documents/2017/12/14/MBB_1718_Notes_12_LUC.pdf

TV/Streaming video: Fox Sports Wisconsin / https://www.foxsportsgo.com/

Audio: 1130 WISN / https://www.iheart.com/live/1130-wisn-4245/?autoplay=true&pname=1176&campid=play_bar&cid=main.html

Stats: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/statmonitr/?id=191132

Vegas odds: Pending

Norfolk State Preview — 12-09-2017

Saturday, November 9, 2017 3:00 p.m.
Gentile Arena, Chicago, Ill.

Fresh from an attention-grabbing upset over #5 Florida, the Ramblers close out their non-con home slate with Norfolk State. The Spartans lost at Loyola last year, 75-62, before going on to a very good season. They made it to the MEAC conference tournament final, losing a bid to the NCAA tournament by eight points, before ending their season in a CIT first-round loss to Liberty.

The Spartans lost two of their primary players from last year, their top and fourth best scorers, but have an experienced returning group. Picked to finish 2nd in the MEAC preseason men’s basketball poll behind Morgan State, the Spartans have struggled perhaps more than expected, with a record of 0-8 entering their matchup with Loyola. The team has been somewhat competitive in each game, but not able to close within nine points at the end of any games against D1 squads.

Coach Robert Jones has been tinkering with his lineup, but the likely starting five are 6’6” senior forward Preston Bungei, 6’8” junior forward Alex Long, 6’4” sophomore guard Stephen Whitley, 6’1” freshman guard Mastadi Pitt, and 6’4” senior guard Kyle Williams. Whitley is the team’s scoring and assist leader, with 12.3 points and 3.6 assists on average. He also shares the team lead in rebounds with 5.2 per contest, and leads in steals and free throw percentage. Bungei leads the team in blocks, shares the rebound lead, and averages 10.5 points; he also chips in 2.8 assists per contest as the small forward. Freshman Mastadi Pitt averages 10.1 points per game, much of it on the strength of his team-leading 13 three-pointers and 43.3% three-point shooting percentage. Long also averages 10.1 points, and adds 3.7 rebounds per game. Kyle Williams shoots well from three, but averages only 7.1 points per game this season; he played well against Loyola last year with 13 points and 7 rebounds.

The NSU bench players include 6’2” sophomore guard Nic Thomas (8.4 points per game), 6’5” junior guard Derrik Jamerson, Jr. (4.1 points), 7’0” senior center Dan Robinson (3.1 points, 3.6 rebounds), and 6’7” senior forward Stavian Allen (3.8 points, 3.3 rebounds).

Norfolk State’s biggest weakness is precisely the opposite of Loyola’s biggest strength: shooting percentage. Only one player on the Spartans, 6’8” Alex Long, has a field goal shooting percentage over 45.5% from the field. As a team, NSU averages only 38.8% on its field goal attempts, which ranks as 339th out of the 351 Division 1 teams. Loyola’s team field goal percentage is 7th in the nation at 52.2%, and 14th on three pointers at 42.3% as a team.

Although the Spartans have some dismal efficiency numbers, one has to remember that most of their non-con games have been on the road. NSU led by four points at halftime in their home game against Kent State, and they’ve managed to stay within striking distance (within 15 points or less) for all but three of their eight losses.

Loyola game notes: http://www.loyolaramblers.com/documents/2017/12/8//Norfolk_State_Notes.pdf?id=4758

Norfolk State game notes: Pending

TV/Streaming video: http://www.espn.com/watch/_/id/3232340/norfolk-state-vs-loyolachicago-m-basketball

Vegas odds: N/A