Ramblermania

Saturday, January 7, 2017 7:00 p.m.
Carver Arena, Peoria, Ill.

If you haven’t been noticing, Bradley is getting better. In the second year of a rebuilding program under former Green Bay Coach Brian Wardle, the Braves are starting to generate some excitement in Peoria. BU’s conference season opener on December 29 against SIU drew 5989 fans, the largest crowd of the season by several hundred. The Braves won that game, and then got their second conference road win in the past two years by knocking off Evansville 74-63. At 2-1 after their first three conference games, it’s Bradley’s best start in conference play since 2012-13.

Above: Inside Carver Arena, from BradleyBraves.com

As recently as 2009-10, Bradley was averaging 9339 in home attendance. That figure dropped under 7000 for the first time since the early 90s in 2013-14, and under 6000 for the first time since the early 70s (at Robertson Fieldhouse) in 2014-15.

Fueling the improvement are three newcomers in the starting lineup. Freshman Darrell Brown is a 5’10” speedster out of Memphis who leads the team in scoring (11.8 ppg), assists (42), minutes (30.1 mpg) and made three pointers (26). Unfortunately, he also leads the team in turnovers (44), and shoots only 41.7% on two-pointers. JoJo McGlaston 6’5” junior guard/forward who transfered from Utah State. McGlaston averages 9.9 points and 4.3 rebounds per game, but has a tendency to get into foul trouble despite averaging only 22.1 mpg. The third newcomer is 6’10” freshman starting center Koch Bar, who leads the team in blocks (24) and rebounds (6.2 rpg) while adding 6.5 points per game. Bar doesn’t take a lot of shots, but if he gets the ball near the basket, it’s probably going in.

Rounding out the likely starters are returnees Donte Thomas, a 6’7” junior forward from Thornwood High in South Holland, and Antoine Pittman, a 6’3” sophomore guard out of Rockford. Thomas is a great rebounder who averages 5.2 boards and 4.6 points in only 17.7 minutes per game. He has given Loyola problems in the past, most notably the game at Gentile Arena last year where he sank a late three pointer to give Bradley its only road win of the year. Pittman averages 6.6 points and 1.9 rebounds per game, and may be their best perimeter defender.

The interesting Bradley newcomers have knocked some of last year’s many newcomers back to the bench. Six-nine sophomore forward Luuk van Bree (Netherlands) and 6’9” sophomore center Callum Barker (a former Loyola recruit from the island of Tasmania) join another overseas player Dwayne Lautier-Ogunleye, a 6’3” sophomore guard from London, coming off the bench. Lautier-Ogunleye gets some starts, and has played well against Loyola in the past; he’s averaging 7.8 points and 3.5 boards. Van Bree averages 6 points and 3.2 rebounds to go with five blocks and a team-leading 13 steals. Barker plays an average of only 10.6 minutes per game and contributes 2.4 point and 2.1 rebounds.

Six-foot-six freshman guard Nate Kennell (5.4 points, 1.5 boards) and 6’3” freshman guard Jayden Hodgson (another Aussie, averaging 3.3 points and 1.3 rebounds) also make notable contributions. In all, there are 10 Braves that average double-digit minutes. The have a lot of fouls to give, and they use them strategically—Evansville shot 46 free throws in their 74-63 home loss to the Braves on Wednesday.

When Bradley scores over 70 points, they’re 6-1. When they score in the 60s they’re 1-4, and below 60 they’re 0-4. Conversely, when opponents score 63 or more, Bradley is 3-8. “First one to 63 wins!” – how’s that for a Loyola slogan?

Neither team is particularly good on the boards, despite Bradley’s size and depth in the front court. The Ramblers have more speed and better ball handling, so it may be a matter of whether Bradley can neutralize those assets that decides the game. The Braves are also highly prone to turnovers and fouls—Bradley has committed 51 more turnovers than their opponents, and seven different players have fouled out a total of 10 times. By comparison, the Ramblers have four players that have fouled out only six times, and Loyola has committed 60 fewer turnovers than their opponents. Perhaps the Ramblers should consider using a press, particularly if Bradley decides to go big.

Loyola needs to win this game, not only because it’s one they’re supposed to win, but because the next two are at 13-3 Wichita State and home against 11-5 Missouri State. It will also help take the lingering sting off losing at Drake.

LINKS

Ramblermania Discussion
Loyola game notes (PDF)
Bradley game notes: Pending
TV/Streaming video: ESPN 3

Vegas odds: Pending

Wednesday, January 4, 2017 6:00 p.m.
Gentile Arena, Chicago, Ill.

Sometimes when the task of writing Loyola game previews becomes grim– like for instance during a three-game losing streak when the team probably should have won at least two of the three games– I like to find little things to amuse myself. When looking over the Northern Iowa roster and box scores, the first thing I thought was the roster has a lot of names that sound like former Nixon administration aides. Klint Carlson, Wyatt Lohaus, Spencer Haldeman, Hunter Rhodes and Ted Friedman are not Watergate defendants, they’re UNI players.

The other thing that caught my eye is UNI is having one of their worst seasons in a long while. Sure, they were picked to finish third in the MVC, Jeremy Morgan was preseason player of the year, and they beat Arizona State and Oklahoma to start the year. But since then, they’ve eight of their last ten and four in a row. At 4-8 against Division I teams and off to an 0-2 start in conference, the Panthers are in serious danger of having their first season under .500 since 2002-03.

In the past, the UNI formula has been for wave after wave of new recruits, gym rats, and coaches’ sons to step in to take the place of the predecessors they’ve understudied. But the reliability and precision of the model has come apart this year. Last season the Panthers had four players average double digits in points, and as a team they shot 51.6% on their two-point field goal attempts. This year they have one player in double digits, and they’re shooting only 44.1% on two-pointers. Their normally excellent three point shooting is down, too, from 37.4% last year to 35.3% this season. And without Wes Washpun’s ability to drive to the basket and make defense into offense, their already deliberate pace has slowed to a crawl.

Coach Jacobson has been mixing and matching lineups, trying different players in different quantities to find a winning formula. The only constant has been 6’5” senior guard Jeremy Morgan, the only UNI player to start every game this season. Morgan averages 17.5 ppg and 7.0 rebounds, leading the team in both categories. And while we’re at it, he leads the team in blocks, steals, assists, made three pointers, made free throws, and free throw percentage. Joining him in the back court is 6’1” redshirt freshman guard Spencer Haldeman, who was named Iowa high school player of the year two years ago. Haldeman is the second leading scorer on the team at 8.9 points per game, and shoots the three at a decent clip— but he’s taken only 15 shots all year inside the three-point arc. Jordan Ashton, a 6’4” senior guard who averages 7.0 points and 3.7 rebounds, has been starting sometimes– depending on matchups. Ashton has been taking a lot of the minutes expected to go to 6’2” junior Wyatt Lohaus, who has been suffering from an ankle injury since late November and has only played six games this season.

The big men are where UNI has probably suffered the most. Six-seven junior forward Klint Carlson made a significant improvement from his freshman to sophomore season, but has regressed a bit as a junior. He’s averaging 8.0 points and 4.3 rebounds, but his free throw and two point field goal percentage has declined from last year. Bennet Koch is a 6’9” junior forward who starts or comes off the bench depending on the matchups and averages 8.2 point and 1.9 rebounds. Six-foot-nine junior center Ted Friedman also gets starts on occasions but is not a major scoring factor, scoring only 12 points on the season.

Jawan McCloud, a 5’11” freshman guard has been getting uneven time while averaging 4.0 ppg on the year. He had a good game last time out with 13 points against Evansville, so he might be a starter against the Ramblers. Also coming off the bench are 6’5” freshman guard Isiah Brown, and 6’11” freshman center Justin Dahl.

The Ramblers have always played the Panthers pretty tough no matter how good or bad the teams are. Loyola is 3-4 against UNI since joining he league, thanks to a Loyola sweep last year. But UNI is resilient, and they play with a lot of pride.

Things also didn’t look too good for UNI at about this time last year. On Jan. 23, 2016, the Panthers were at 10-11 overall and 2-6 in conference after a loss at Illinois State. From then on, they went 13-1 before being eliminated in the third round of the NCAA Tournament in double overtime. Their one loss from late January to mid March was a 59-56 loss at Gentile Arena. Hopefully that doesn’t mean Loyola is at the top of UNI’s enemies list, and the Panthers will wait one more game before coming alive and turning around their season, as they usually do.

LINKS

Loyola game notes: Pending

Ramblermania message board discussion

Northern Iowa game notes (PDF)

TV/Streaming video: Comcast Sportsnet Chicago, ESPN3

Radio: WLUW 88.7 FM (Get the app!)

Vegas odds: Pending

Thursday, December 29, 2016 7:05 p.m.
Knapp Arena, Des Moines, Iowa

Conference play begins in the MVC for the 2016-17 season on Wednesday, with Indiana State hosting Wichita State and Missouri State at UNI. On Thursday, SIU visits Bradley, ISU hosts Evansville, and the Ramblers play at Drake to open conference play. As the conference season gets underway, Loyola and Evansville appear to be the surprise of the non-con season. Evansville currently holds a seven-game winning streak, although two of those games were against non-D1 teams. Loyola got an AP Top 25 vote for two weeks before losing to Toledo last Tuesday, the first AP votes for the Ramblers since 1985. And Drake, the Ramblers’ next opponent, is about where everyone picked them to be.

Drake had a pretty awful 2015-16 season, in which they only won two games in conference and six games overall. Maybe their highlight game of the season was a Senior Day upset win over Loyola to sink the Ramblers from a potential 6th place league finish to 8th.

Even though the Bulldogs were picked last in the MVC preseason poll, a lot of Drake fans were looking forward to a 2016-17 season with a bit more optimism. Four out of five starters were returning for Coach Ray Giacoletti’s squad, and the majority of his players were now upperclassmen. Besides, it couldn’t be any worse than last year, right?

Wrong. First, promising 7’0” center Dominik Olejniczak, who had the ability to dominate on both ends of the court (and scored 19 points with nine rebounds in Drake’s win against Loyola), transferred to Ole Miss a month after the end of last season. Drake began the 2016-17 season by going 0-6 against Division I teams and 1-7 overall before Coach Giacoletti resigned abruptly. The Dogs then they lost three more games under acting head coach Jeff Rutter before getting their first Division I win over winless Mississippi Valley State on Dec. 22.

Chaos and inconsistency have been the watchwords for Drake this year. Only one player has started all of their games, and only two players have started more than eight of their 12 contests this year. They’ve had some impressive performances in losing efforts (a two-point overtime loss against Fresno State, a two-point loss at DePaul, and claiming a lead against #21 Iowa State several minutes into the second half), but they’ve also had some head-scratching, very bad losses (losing to Division II Alaska-Anchorage in the Great Alaska Shootout, losing at home to Jackson State). Their lone Division I win was a 101-69 explosion over hapless Mississippi Valley State 101-69 last Tuesday, featuring 17 Bulldog made three pointers.

Assuming Coach Rutter sticks with a winning starting lineup, the Bulldogs are likely to start three guards and two forwards against Loyola. Drake’s leading scorer is 6’1” junior guard Reed Timmer, who averages 15.6 points. Joining him in the backcourt are two 6’2” juniors, De’Antae McMurrray and C.J. Rivers, who average 6.6 and 4.9 respectively. McMurray is the main playmaker, but they’re both really good ball handlers and passers with assist to turnover ratios well above 2.4.

The Bulldogs have a really interesting frontcourt, with 6’6” sophomore forward Billy Wampler emerging recently as a powerful three-point scoring threat. In the first four or five games of the season, Wampler played a more conventional game, but since returning from the Great Alaska Shootout, he’s been more aggressive offensively and is firing up two thirds of his shots from behind the arc. Wampler is averaging 20.1 ppg in the last six games after averaging only 6.3 ppg in the first six. He leads the MVC in made threes, and hits his three pointers at a 45.8% clip. Last time out against Mississippi Valley State he scored 27 and set a league high in made threes in a game this season with eight—in 22 minutes. Joining Wampler in the frontcourt is the Bulldogs’ best rebounder, 6’8” junior forward T.J. Thomas who averages 5.4 boards and chips in 6.3 points.

Drake still has a lot of size and familiar names off the bench. Casey Schlatter (6’10”), Kory Kuenstling (6’11”) and Jacob Enevold (7’0”) each see respectable minutes off the bench and pull in a good share of rebounds even if they aren’t prolific scorers. The three of them combine to produce about 33 minutes, 9.5 points, and 8.8 boards on average. Other significant bench producers are 6’0” junior guard Graham Woodward (5.8 ppg), 6’8” sophomore forward Nick McGlynn and 6’3” junior guard Ore Aregondade (4.8 points, 3.1 boards).

Drake leads the conference in free throw shooting percentage, and Wampler is second in the conference in offensive plus/minus. The Ramblers lead the league in field goal percentage, have three players in the Top 20 in plus/minus offensively: Aundre Jackson at #5, Clayton Custer at #10, and Milton Doyle at #19. Drake has no one in the top 20 defensively, but the Ramblers have Ben Richardson at #4 and Doyle at #12. Jackson also leads the MVC in Player Efficiency Rating. The two teams have similar rebounding margins, although Drake is much better on the offensive glass. Loyola has a huge advantage in shooting percentage, both in the paint and from long distance. The numbers point to a battle between Drake’s new-and-improved offense which depends a lot on put-backs and how hot Billy Wampler can get, and Loyola’s disciplined defense that sometimes gets lost like a vital piece of baggage on the road.

Loyola, after nine days of welcome rest, begins the conference season on the road, where their play has been brilliant in a close loss against a tough team (North Carolina State), just barely good enough to squeak out a win against a banged-up team (UIC), and a little lethargic (against Toledo). Any way you cut it or choose to garnish it, it still ends up as a 1-2 record that could have easily been 0-3 or 3-0. The difference is energy and intensity, which was there until crunch time against NC State, not there until crunch time against UIC, and not there consistently against Toledo. Road wins don’t come easy, and especially road conference wins, even against teams with Drake’s record that also happens to be going through a coaching upheaval. The Ramblers need to bring energy and focus, they need to maintain it, and they need to play this game to start the conference this year much better than they played their last regular season conference game—that unexpected loss at Drake that dropped their Arch Madness conference seeding.

LINKS

Loyola game notes

Drake game notes

TV/Streaming video: ESPN3

Ramblermania game discussion

Vegas odds: Loyola by 6.5