Sunday, January 15, 2017 3:00 p.m.
Gentile Arena, Chicago, Ill.
An infusion of some really good transfer talent and the return of some promising and healthy veterans prompted MVC preseason poll voters to select Missouri State for 4th place. The Bears were coming off an 13-19 injury plagued season where their 8-10 conference record landed them in 7th place. Obediah Church, Jarred Dixson, and Ryan Kreklow were impressive contributors as freshman, and were each poised to make strides as sophomores. Coming in from the juco ranks was a 6’9” athlete, a 6’6” small forward, and a 5’10” speedster to help remake the team.
In fact, the style and personality of the Missouri State Bears is remarkably different from what was expected prior to last season. The lumbering, musclebound big guys are gone, in favor of speedy and athletic players with length and energy. The new look Bears have bodies made for basketball instead of football.
Making the biggest difference in this year’s MSU team is their leading scorer and rebounder, 6’9” Alize Johnson. Plucked from an obscure junior college in the Texas panhandle, the Pennsylvania native is flat out running away with the MVC rebounding title (10.1 boards per game, nearly two per game more than his closest competition) and leads the Bears with 13.3 points per game on 52.3% field goal shooting. Although he’s the tallest MSU player on the court and piles up the rebounds, he’s also a threat from beyond the arc, where he shoots 37.5% on 48 attempts. Johnson is listed at 201 pounds, and because of they way he’s built, seems shorter than 6’9” when you watch him play. Like Loyola’s Aundre Jackson (6’5”, 230 pounds), he goes almost unnoticed until it’s time to make a play, and then he appears in the perfect position, seemingly from out of nowhere. Starting with him in the front court are another juco transfer, 6’6” forward Jarrid Rhodes, and 6’7” sophomore forward Obediah Church. Rhodes averages 6.7 points and 3.4 rebounds per game; Church averages 7.3 points per game, is second in rebounding at 5.0 per game, and leads all of the MVC in blocks.
Dequon Miller, a very quick 5’10” senior point guard, starts for the Bears and averages 11.2 points per game. Despite being well under six feet, Miller’s quickness helps him average 3.6 rebounds, third on the team. Miller leads the team in minutes (33.6 per game), three pointer made/attempted, and steals. He will shoot from just about anywhere on the floor. Last year, Miller feasted against Loyola, scoring 16 points in each game, and sunk a running jumper at Gentile with 3.4 seconds left to give MSU a 56-54 win.
Ronnie Rousseau III, yet another juco, is a 5’10” shooting guard who had started the first 14 games and helped MSU beat Northern Iowa in Cedar Falls to open conference play. Rousseau was MSU’s 2nd leading scorer at 11.6 But he suddenly took a leave of absence from the team for undisclosed personal reasons, and probably won’t be playing. Jarred Dixon, a 6’3” sophomore who averages 8.1 points, or Ryan Kreklow, a 6’4” sophomore averaging 8.2 points and leading in three point shooting, have been making starts to fill in.
There will also be playing time for three holdovers from the older style of Missouri State play—6’5” junior forward Chris Kendrix, 6’8” senior forward Jordan Martin, and 6’3” sharpshooting junior Austin Ruder.
The Bears play a style which can sometimes be fast and sloppy. They make a lot of turnovers, and they shoot from all over the floor—seven of their players have taken 35 or more attempts from behind the arc, and three of them as 6’5” or taller. Nine MSU players have taken 18 or more free throw attempts, which indicates how dispersed their offense and ball movement can be.
But the Bears also struggle to maintain a comfortable rhythm, and they get hot or cold for long periods when they’re in or out of sync. MSU built a 9-point halftime lead against DePaul at Allstate Arena on Nov. 23, then let DePaul cut it to two, before building the lead back to 13 with 7 ½ minutes to play— and somehow lost 68-66 on a shot at the buzzer. A second game against DePaul at the Las Vegas Classic resulted in a 69-58 MSU win, behind 9-2, 20-8, and 8-2 MSU runs interspersed with 11-0 and 6-0 DePaul runs. They’ve taken Illinois State to OT on the road, and a 32-8 lead dwindled to two points in the final minute as they held on to beat Northern Iowa in Cedar Falls.
Missouri State has the capability of giving the Ramblers a bad case of the matchup problems. The Ramblers often have trouble against athletic big men like power-rebounder Alize Johnson and league-leading shot blocker Obediah Church. The Bears have been playing with a three forward, two guard starting lineup most of the year, while Loyola has been playing four guards and one forward— will one team or the other need to make a change to combat a mismatch? Also, the mismatches go both ways–there are only three lesser-used players available (two with slower speed and one with questionable defensive abilities) in the height range between 5’10” and 6’5”– which is exactly where the Ramblers have their greatest strength.
MSU is also a great three-point defending team. They are holding opponents to a 31.7% clip (tied for 2nd in the MVC), and have allowed the third fewest three point attempts in the league—put together it means they’ve given up 10 fewer made threes than the next best team in the league. In the 11 games they’ve held opponents to under 36% three-point shooting, they’re 10-1; in the seven games where opponents shot 36% or better, MSU is only 2-5 (Loyola averages 39.7% as a team). Loyola has a very good turnover margin, and that may be useful to get more possessions to combat MSU’s large rebounding edge. The Ramblers need to put pressure on the ball, especially with Alize Johnson (40 turnovers), and Dequon Miller (35 turnovers). If the Ramblers want to double the post, Johnson and Church are both below average free throw shooters– in the mid-50s. And the final Achilles’ heel for the Bears is rebounding: in games where the boards are tied or in favor of the opponents, MSU is 0-6.
LINKS
- Loyola game notes (PDF)
- Missouri State game notes
- TV/Streaming video: ESPNU/ESPN3
- Radio: WLUW 88.7 FM (Do you have the WLUW app on your phone yet?)
- Vegas odds: Loyola by 4.5
