Ramblermania

Wednesday, January 18, 2017 7:00 p.m.
McLeod Center, Cedar Falls, Iowa

Just two weeks ago, Loyola defeated UNI handily at Gentile Arena, 77-66. It was a game Loyola needed badly after starting conference play with a loss at Drake and a blowout loss at home to Illinois State. The Loyola ship was righted with the win, and the Ramblers followed with a solid win at Bradley, a gutsy performance in a loss at Wichita State, and a come from behind win against Missouri State. UNI got their first win of the season Sunday, when they demolished Drake in Cedar Falls.

With the loss at Loyola, the Panthers have adjusted their starting lineup and shuffled minutes to some players. Juwan McCloud, who came off the bench to lead UNI in scoring against Loyola, has joined the starters. Freshman Spencer Haldeman is now coming in first from the bench, but still getting starter’s minutes. Junior Ted Friedman and freshman Isiah Brown are seeing fewer minutes, redshirt freshman forward Luke McDonnell is seeing a few more minutes. MVC Preseason Player of the Year Jeremy Morgan was held to only seven points against the Ramblers two weeks ago, but after a respectable out against WSU and sitting out a game against Bradley, he bounced back to score 21 in their win Sunday against Drake.

Sunday’s 79-60 win over Drake halted a seven-game UNI losing streak, their longest losing streak in 17 seasons. And Coach Jacobson seemed somewhat intent upon securing that first league win, as he played only seven players more than three minutes in the game. Klint Carlson, Jeremy Morgan, and Jordan Ashton combined to split eight minutes of rest in that game, despite UNI leading by 20 points at halftime and 23 points with 5 ½ minutes left. Coach Jacobson and Drake midseason head coaching replacement Jeff Rutter both served as assistants under Greg McDermott.

Bennett Koch tied with Jeremy Morgan for game high points honors against Drake, scoring a season-high 21 points and missing his career high by one point. Senior guard Jordan Ashton (a transfer from Iowa State) may have also found his groove, as he scored a career high 17 in his 39 minutes against Drake and has averaged 13.0 ppg over his last four games.

The uneven scheduling in the MVC means that Loyola is done for the regular season with Northern Iowa after this game, before playing even one game against Indiana State, Evansville, or Southern Illinois. Finishing up with UNI so early this year might be an advantage for Loyola, as the Panthers are well coached and have been trimming their losing margins before getting a confidence-building win last time out against Drake. Have the Panthers turned the corner that many expected them to turn several games ago? Or is the UNI team really going to be the worst team of the Jacobson-McDermott era?

Although the Panthers had impressive wins over Arizona State and Oklahoma early in the season, both those teams have fallen to .500 or below. Arizona State’s best win was against 9-8 Colorado at home. Oklahoma’s best win was a home win against Texas Tech, one of only two wins Oklahoma has had against teams with a winning record. In fact, UNI is currently 0-9 against teams that are over .500. Another quirk is the Panthers are 0-10 when they score less than 70 points. They are 5-1 when scoring over 70 points.

Don’t expect the Panthers to pack it in for the rest of the season, especially under a coach like Ben Jacobson, especially at home, and especially in Jeremy Morgan’s senior season. They will fight hard in every game over the remainder of the schedule, and at home they will have their loud and dedicated fan base to support them. Whether they have enough talent and healthy players to win against Loyola at home this year is another question—hopefully Loyola brings back at least one win from Iowa this year.

LINKS

• Loyola game notes (PDF)
• Northern Iowa game notes (PDF)
• TV/Streaming video: CSN Chicago/ESPN3
• Ramblermania message board discussion
• Vegas odds: Pending

Sunday, January 15, 2017 3:00 p.m.
Gentile Arena, Chicago, Ill.

An infusion of some really good transfer talent and the return of some promising and healthy veterans prompted MVC preseason poll voters to select Missouri State for 4th place. The Bears were coming off an 13-19 injury plagued season where their 8-10 conference record landed them in 7th place. Obediah Church, Jarred Dixson, and Ryan Kreklow were impressive contributors as freshman, and were each poised to make strides as sophomores. Coming in from the juco ranks was a 6’9” athlete, a 6’6” small forward, and a 5’10” speedster to help remake the team.

In fact, the style and personality of the Missouri State Bears is remarkably different from what was expected prior to last season. The lumbering, musclebound big guys are gone, in favor of speedy and athletic players with length and energy. The new look Bears have bodies made for basketball instead of football.

Making the biggest difference in this year’s MSU team is their leading scorer and rebounder, 6’9” Alize Johnson. Plucked from an obscure junior college in the Texas panhandle, the Pennsylvania native is flat out running away with the MVC rebounding title (10.1 boards per game, nearly two per game more than his closest competition) and leads the Bears with 13.3 points per game on 52.3% field goal shooting. Although he’s the tallest MSU player on the court and piles up the rebounds, he’s also a threat from beyond the arc, where he shoots 37.5% on 48 attempts. Johnson is listed at 201 pounds, and because of they way he’s built, seems shorter than 6’9” when you watch him play. Like Loyola’s Aundre Jackson (6’5”, 230 pounds), he goes almost unnoticed until it’s time to make a play, and then he appears in the perfect position, seemingly from out of nowhere. Starting with him in the front court are another juco transfer, 6’6” forward Jarrid Rhodes, and 6’7” sophomore forward Obediah Church. Rhodes averages 6.7 points and 3.4 rebounds per game; Church averages 7.3 points per game, is second in rebounding at 5.0 per game, and leads all of the MVC in blocks.

Dequon Miller, a very quick 5’10” senior point guard, starts for the Bears and averages 11.2 points per game. Despite being well under six feet, Miller’s quickness helps him average 3.6 rebounds, third on the team. Miller leads the team in minutes (33.6 per game), three pointer made/attempted, and steals. He will shoot from just about anywhere on the floor. Last year, Miller feasted against Loyola, scoring 16 points in each game, and sunk a running jumper at Gentile with 3.4 seconds left to give MSU a 56-54 win.

Ronnie Rousseau III, yet another juco, is a 5’10” shooting guard who had started the first 14 games and helped MSU beat Northern Iowa in Cedar Falls to open conference play. Rousseau was MSU’s 2nd leading scorer at 11.6 But he suddenly took a leave of absence from the team for undisclosed personal reasons, and probably won’t be playing. Jarred Dixon, a 6’3” sophomore who averages 8.1 points, or Ryan Kreklow, a 6’4” sophomore averaging 8.2 points and leading in three point shooting, have been making starts to fill in.

There will also be playing time for three holdovers from the older style of Missouri State play—6’5” junior forward Chris Kendrix, 6’8” senior forward Jordan Martin, and 6’3” sharpshooting junior Austin Ruder.

The Bears play a style which can sometimes be fast and sloppy. They make a lot of turnovers, and they shoot from all over the floor—seven of their players have taken 35 or more attempts from behind the arc, and three of them as 6’5” or taller. Nine MSU players have taken 18 or more free throw attempts, which indicates how dispersed their offense and ball movement can be.

But the Bears also struggle to maintain a comfortable rhythm, and they get hot or cold for long periods when they’re in or out of sync. MSU built a 9-point halftime lead against DePaul at Allstate Arena on Nov. 23, then let DePaul cut it to two, before building the lead back to 13 with 7 ½ minutes to play— and somehow lost 68-66 on a shot at the buzzer. A second game against DePaul at the Las Vegas Classic resulted in a 69-58 MSU win, behind 9-2, 20-8, and 8-2 MSU runs interspersed with 11-0 and 6-0 DePaul runs. They’ve taken Illinois State to OT on the road, and a 32-8 lead dwindled to two points in the final minute as they held on to beat Northern Iowa in Cedar Falls.

Missouri State has the capability of giving the Ramblers a bad case of the matchup problems. The Ramblers often have trouble against athletic big men like power-rebounder Alize Johnson and league-leading shot blocker Obediah Church. The Bears have been playing with a three forward, two guard starting lineup most of the year, while Loyola has been playing four guards and one forward— will one team or the other need to make a change to combat a mismatch? Also, the mismatches go both ways–there are only three lesser-used players available (two with slower speed and one with questionable defensive abilities) in the height range between 5’10” and 6’5”– which is exactly where the Ramblers have their greatest strength.

MSU is also a great three-point defending team. They are holding opponents to a 31.7% clip (tied for 2nd in the MVC), and have allowed the third fewest three point attempts in the league—put together it means they’ve given up 10 fewer made threes than the next best team in the league. In the 11 games they’ve held opponents to under 36% three-point shooting, they’re 10-1; in the seven games where opponents shot 36% or better, MSU is only 2-5 (Loyola averages 39.7% as a team). Loyola has a very good turnover margin, and that may be useful to get more possessions to combat MSU’s large rebounding edge. The Ramblers need to put pressure on the ball, especially with Alize Johnson (40 turnovers), and Dequon Miller (35 turnovers). If the Ramblers want to double the post, Johnson and Church are both below average free throw shooters– in the mid-50s. And the final Achilles’ heel for the Bears is rebounding: in games where the boards are tied or in favor of the opponents, MSU is 0-6.

LINKS

• Loyola game notes (PDF)
• Missouri State game notes
• TV/Streaming video: ESPNU/ESPN3
• Radio: WLUW 88.7 FM (Do you have the WLUW app on your phone yet?)
• Vegas odds: Loyola by 4.5

Wednesday, January 11, 2017 6:00 p.m.
Koch Arena, Wichita, Kan.

How to describe the 2016-17 Wichita State Shockers in one word? Depth. In two words? Startling depth. In three words? Unbelievably startling depth.

Most teams have about 9 to 11 players who make appearances in more than half their games; Wichita State has 16. Ten different Shockers scored in the first half of their game on Sunday at UNI. Ten players average more than 4.7 points per game. They’ve had nine different players lead (or tie for the lead) in scoring in their 17 games this season. Eleven different players have collected 20 or more rebounds on the season, 11 players have double digits in free throw attempts, nine players have double-digits in assists, eight players have double-digits in three point attempts, and seven different players have double-digits in steals. There are ten players who average double-digits in minutes, and all of them have between 24.1 per game (redshirt freshman Landry Shamet) and 13.3 per game (true freshman Austin Reeves).

And Coach Gregg Marshall has been mixing and matching his starting lineup from his deep bench, presumably to keep his players motivated, rested, tuned to the strengths of the opponents, and content with their playing time. The only player to start every game, and the only player to start more than 75% of the Shockers’ games, is Landry Shamet, who’s started all 17 games on the season. The next highest player (Zach Brown) has 12, and Daishon Smith has 10. Six other players have between 5 and 9 starts.

My guess on WSU’s starting lineup against Loyola is: 6’1” junior Daishon Smith and 6’4”redshirt freshman Landry Shamet at the guard spots, and 6’9” juco Darral Willis, 6’8” sophomore Markis McDuffie, and 6’7” junior Zach Brown playing forward. That’s just a guess, based on a previous starting lineup. I could also see Zach Brown sitting to start the game in favor of 6’1” guard Conner Frankamp, or Willis taking a seat in favor of 6’10” center Rauno Nurger… or 6’8” center Shaquille Morris. Rashard Kelly, a 6’7” junior forward who is the 10th leading scorer on the Shockers, but had a good game last year against Loyola (11 points, four rebounds in 17 minutes) and has five previous appearances against the Ramblers could also start. Also coming off the bench is Austin Reeves, a 6’5” true freshman guard who is averaging 6.0 points per game and leads the league in three-point percentage by hitting 22 of 40 shots (55%). The point is, whichever starting lineup WSU begins with, there are going to be three or four players starting the game on the bench who would be starters for 7 or 8 of the other teams in the league.

When the Shockers lose, or run into trouble, it’s usually because more than one person in the starting lineup has a very bad night. Against Oklahoma State, the Shocks shot only 36.5% from the field, connected on only three three-pointers in 17 tries, got out-rebounded, and allowed the Cowboys to shoot 52.5% from the field. Markis McDuffy, Daishon Smith, and Landry Shamet combined to go 4 of 20 from the field against OSU. Against Louisville, the starters came out flat in the first half, shooting only 5 for 16 for the first 20 minutes. The bench did even worse, and by halftime Wichita State was in a 33-17 hole, from which they never really recovered. Against Michigan State, WSU came back from trailing by 18 in the second half to cut the margin to one point after the starting lineup managed only 15 points combined (out of the 72 points the team scored)—which also tells you how versatile and talented the Shockers’ bench is. The only one of the Shocker wins that was in doubt was against Oklahoma in OKC. The WSU defense was great, holding OU to just 30.8% from the field, but tight coverage resulted in 34 Sooner free throw attempts to keep them in it—yet no Shocker fouled out, thanks to having multiple weapons at every position and plenty of fouls to give.

And the really scary part? There are only two seniors on WSU’s roster, and they’re both walk-ons. From right now the 14-3 Shockers Loyola will face on Wednesday will be the least experienced, the least developed, and least practiced they’ll be for the next year and a half. They’re just going to get better and more experienced from now through the end of 2017-18.

What the Ramblers need to do in this game is assert their few advantages by control the tempo and style of the game—hard to do on the road against a really good team, but the more of the game they can dictate, the better their chances. Loyola has been generally good at neutralizing big men by cutting off passing lanes and doubling big men in the post. As always, WSU leads the league in rebounding, and this team is no different—right now WSU has 14% more total rebounds than the next best team in the MVC, and they are 8th nationally in rebounding margin. Additionally, the Shockers are 33rd in the nation in steals. So valuing possessions, making WSU work hard on defense, and using quickness to establish rebounding position and keep the rebounding margin respectable is essential for Loyola to have a chance to win.

Excluding Reeves, the Shocks are a good, but not a spectacular three-point shooting team—Loyola is tops in the league. And although WSU is second in the MVC in overall field goal percentage, they are a far distant second behind the Ramblers. Believe it or not, Loyola has more field goals on the season than the Shockers, with 87 fewer shots attempted. The Ramblers need to use the advantage of better field goal efficiency by limiting the number of field goal attempts by WSU by any means possible, and making doubly sure they are patient when necessary to get good shots on their end. And finally, Loyola needs to keep WSU off the free throw line, as WSU is 35th in the nation in getting to the line and 71st in free throw percentage. Wichita State has scored 20.8% of their points from the foul line. For comparison, Loyola– the second-highest scoring team in the league– has tallied just 14.9% of their points from freebies.

Things are going to have to break right for Loyola on every level for the Ramblers to get their first win against Wichita State since joining the MVC. And they’re going to have to go spectacularly well while WSU has a very bad night for the Ramblers to snatch only the second win for a conference visitor at WSU since Feb. 27, 2013.

LINKS

Ramblermania Discussion
Loyola game notes: Pending
Wichita State game notes: Pending
TV/Streaming video: CSN Chicago/ESPN3
Vegas odds: Pending